<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">Free trade in the Americas is good for the United States, but both political parties are so paralyze</div>

Free trade in the Americas is good for the United States, but both political parties are so paralyze

<div>Free trade in the Americas is good for the United States, but both political parties are so paralyzed by their minority wings that it might elude us.During the 1996 campaigns, neither Republicans nor Democrats had much to say about trade, much less free trade in the Americas. This had nothing to do with whether new agreements would be good for the U.S. economy. It had everything to do with politicians pandering to Ross Perot supporters and avoiding alienating anti-free-trade elements in their own parties.The GOP had enough trouble with Pat Buchanan and his folks that no one dared touch the...

Free trade in the Americas is good for the United States, but both political parties are so paralyzed by their minority wings that it might elude us. During the 1996 campaigns, neither Republicans nor Democrats had much to say about trade, much less free trade in the Americas. This had nothing to do with whether new agreements would be good for the U.S. economy. It had everything to do with politicians pandering to Ross Perot supporters and avoiding alienating anti-free-trade elements in their own parties.The GOP had enough trouble with Pat Buchanan and his folks that no one dared touch the trade issue. Democrats had alienated a portion of their urban constituency by supporting welfare reform. They could not raise union hackles by campaigning to promote free trade. A postelection survey by the Trade Policy Institute indicated that Nafta would not pass in today's Congress. Too many seats that changed hands in 1996 went from members who voted for Nafta to members who do not support new trade agreements. This new political dynamic is diametrically opposed to U.S. economic interests. In 1959, all U.S. trade with the rest of the world amounted to less than 14 percent of the GNP. That ratio soared to 32 percent by 1996. But because the American public does not grasp the growing importance of trade, Congress sees no urgency to move ahead. Our internal market is the world's largest, most successful and longest-running free-trade area. Our competitors have been forming trade areas and common markets among themselves for 50 years to emulate our success. The comparative economic strength of our internal market diminishes as these foreign trading blocs grow. To keep our home economy on the right track, we must continue to expand free-trade opportunities. The volume of goods and services we sold abroad grew sharply in 1996, despite limited economic growth by our traditional major trading partners. Our imports also grew rapidly. Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan believes that ''imports provided a safety valve in a U.S. economy marked by a high degree of resource utilization.'' While import growth from around the world has been strong, our export growth is concentrated in the Western Hemisphere. The economies of Europe and Japan, which are growing more slowly than our own, offer more limited export opportunities. Growth in the Western Hemisphere is strong enough to support increased U.S. exports. Argentina, Brazil, Chile and Mexico have growth rates over 5 percent. They could buy a lot of U.S. exports, but we have a free-trade agreement with only one of them. Europe and Asia have noticed that growth and are moving to expand their Latin American trade. Our continued economic vitality demands that we do likewise. This is a good time for new trade agreements. Our working age population is expanding relatively slowly, and we have low unemployment rates. Imports contribute to price stability, while our exports contribute to growth. Ever since Nafta passed, hemispheric countries have asked for a free-trade agreement for all of the Americas. The question is, will our government have the authority to negotiate that agreement? The tremendous impetus driving trade liberalization in the Western Hemisphere will expand the benefits of free trade among the Americas, whether or not the United States leads or even participates. A decade ago, unilateral trade liberalization by Mexico (to qualify for GATT membership) led to increased trade volumes. The desire for even greater trade culminated in Nafta. This momentum led to the decision at the Summit of the Americas to seek a comprehensive free-trade area for all of the Americas. The sooner the United States can negotiate agreements to accept countries that want to join Nafta, the stronger will be our role in shaping hemispheric trade. Eleven free-trade agreements and four common market areas are already established among pairs and groups of countries in the hemisphere. A wide variety of American countries have sought Nafta accession since 1994. Many formulated free-trade agreements among themselves with an eye to Nafta compatibility. U.S. political paralysis has delayed the accession of new partners to Nafta and prejudiced our chance to build on its success. Brazil wants to direct free-trade negotiations so that its Mercosur ''integration,'' or common-market concept (which allows for the free movement of labor as well as of products), will be the hemispheric model. U.S. political foot dragging on expanding Nafta is not in our interest.

US HURT BY FOOT DRAGGING

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">TGS Logistics said state grants for electric trucks failed to stem higher costs for new equipment amid a soft rate environment. </div>

TGS Logistics said state grants for electric trucks failed to stem higher costs for new equipment amid a soft rate environment.

Feature image

<div class="phx-topic">A second major California-based drayage operator has closed its doors in less than a month, raising renewed concerns that the cost of the state’s green push for low and zero-emission trucks might be hastening the demise of the companies. TGS Logistics last week shut down its operations in Northern and Southern California, <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/drayage-stakeholders-say-industry-under-threat-from-falling-rates-increased-costs-6045985">following GSC Enterprises’ announcement</a> in mid-July that it ceased operations in the Oakland area. Robert Loya, chief operating officer at TGS, said that drayage operators in California rely upon “layered grants” from the state and from the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach. A harbor-wide clean truck program reimburses drayage providers partly for electric truck purchases, but much of the revenues collected through the $10-per-TEU fee on laden containers goes toward building electric charging infrastructure. <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/drayage-stakeholders-say-industry-under-threat-from-falling-rates-increased-costs-6045985">Drayage operators are struggling</a> in an environment marked by stagnating pricing while drayage operators’ costs have increased significantly. These market developments haven’t spared drayage operators in California who also face the additional cost of approximately $500,000 per zero-emission truck, said Matt Schrap, CEO of the Harbor Trucking Association. Drayage operators in California have been upgrading their fleets <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/proposed-california-container-fee-would-hit-bcos-5198183">with clean-diesel trucks</a> and, more recently, <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/new-fee-to-support-zero-emission-drayage-fleet-at-la-lb-5228423">with the purchase of zero-emission trucks</a>. Those purchases have “exacerbated” current market conditions, he said. The ports since 2022 together have collected about $250 million in revenue from the Clean Truck Fund (CTF) rate. The grants to individual drayage companies are made when the zero-emission vehicles are delivered. The ports continue to modify the CTF rate so that it will have a greater impact on the financial capability of drayage operators to purchase zero-emission vehicles, said Noel Hacegaba, chief operating officer of the Port of Long Beach. Bryan Brandes maritime director at the Port of Oakland, said drayage operators in California — who are already struggling with waning pricing power and increased operating costs and at the same time are purchasing clean-diesel and zero-emission vehicles — run the risk of following TGS’ fate. “TGS was trying to be a leader in the clean-truck movement,” Brandes said. Contact Bill Mongelluzzo at <a href="mailto:bill.mongelluzzo@spglobal.com">bill.mongelluzzo@spglobal.com</a>. </div>

A second major California-based drayage operator has closed its doors in less than a month, raising renewed concerns that the cost of the state’s green push for low and zero-emission trucks might be hastening the demise of the companies. TGS Logistics last week shut down its operations in Northern and Southern California, following GSC Enterprises’ announcement in mid-July that it ceased operations in the Oakland area. Robert Loya, chief operating officer at TGS, said that drayage operators in California rely upon “layered grants” from the state and from the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach. A harbor-wide clean truck program reimburses drayage providers partly for electric truck purchases, but much of the revenues collected through the $10-per-TEU fee on laden containers goes toward building electric charging infrastructure. Drayage operators are struggling in an environment marked by stagnating pricing while drayage operators’ costs have increased significantly. These market developments haven’t spared drayage operators in California who also face the additional cost of approximately $500,000 per zero-emission truck, said Matt Schrap, CEO of the Harbor Trucking Association. Drayage operators in California have been upgrading their fleets with clean-diesel trucks and, more recently, with the purchase of zero-emission trucks . Those purchases have “exacerbated” current market conditions, he said. The ports since 2022 together have collected about $250 million in revenue from the Clean Truck Fund (CTF) rate. The grants to individual drayage companies are made when the zero-emission vehicles are delivered. The ports continue to modify the CTF rate so that it will have a greater impact on the financial capability of drayage operators to purchase zero-emission vehicles, said Noel Hacegaba, chief operating officer of the Port of Long Beach. Bryan Brandes maritime director at the Port of Oakland, said drayage operators in California — who are already struggling with waning pricing power and increased operating costs and at the same time are purchasing clean-diesel and zero-emission vehicles — run the risk of following TGS’ fate. “TGS was trying to be a leader in the clean-truck movement,” Brandes said. Contact Bill Mongelluzzo at bill.mongelluzzo@spglobal.com .

Surface

Port News

Trucking News

Drayage

Second California drayage operator shuts business, cites electric truck costs

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">But the increase in truck counts at large truckload providers is more about anticipated growth than any change in current demand. </div>

But the increase in truck counts at large truckload providers is more about anticipated growth than any change in current demand.

<div class="phx-topic">Large US truckload carriers are beginning to add capacity to their fleets after three years of deep cuts, pushing the Journal of Commerce Truckload Capacity Index (TCI) up 1.1 percentage points sequentially in the second quarter to a reading of 76%. The capacity gain was only a trickle of tractors, but it caused the first increase in the TCI in 11 quarters, signaling growing — if not cautious — confidence among trucking executives that the freight downturn that began in 2022, while not yet finished, is finally approaching its end. The TCI was down 0.9 of a percentage point year over year, but the gain from the first quarter indicates the index could soon turn positive on an annualized basis, perhaps by year-end. The increase isn’t a reaction to higher demand in today’s US domestic freight market. Instead, the gain in capacity shows truckload carriers are slowly and judiciously preparing for higher volumes that may arrive in the fourth quarter of 2025 and early 2026. Contract rates negotiated with shippers are either flat or up by low single-digit percentages, carriers report. Capacity is still widely available, and while small and midsized carriers continue to leave the market, shippers retain pricing power. <div class="wrapper-narrow"><dynamic-object type="jocchartid" resource-id="bbf4a072-889b-4bbf-94bd-cd682d4252d0"></dynamic-object></div>“The impact of accumulated inflation remains a drag on the amount of truckload freight generated in relation to consumer spending,” Frank Lonegro, president and CEO of Landstar System, told Wall Street analysts during a July 29 earnings call. “Truck capacity continued to be readily available with small pockets of supply-demand equilibrium and market conditions continue to favor the shipper,” Lonegro said. Several truckload shippers have told the Journal of Commerce that they’ve given some carriers small rate increases this year simply to retain access to their capacity, not because of any significant tightness in the marketplace. <h3>Looking ahead </h3>The second-quarter increase in the TCI — which measures changes in actual truck counts at a select group of large, publicly-owned truckload carriers — indicates the US domestic freight market is doing more than just bouncing along the bottom it hit in mid-2022. Shippers are evaluating their capacity needs for the second half of the year and for 2026 amid volatile changes in US trade and tariff policy. Those who expect freight demand and the US economy to improve are looking to secure capacity ahead of any crunch. “We’re having some discussions around doing some peak projects,” Adam Miller, CEO of Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings, told Wall Street analysts July 23. “There’s some discussion about what capacity may look like at scale,” Miller said during an earnings call. “[When capacity gets tight], that’s when a carrier of our size at our different brands has the ability to come in and solve large problems for our customers.” Knight-Swift cut its average truckload tractor count by 6.6% year over year in the second quarter and by 6.3% in the first half of 2025. CFO Andrew Hess told analysts Knight-Swift’s truck count should be stable through the rest of 2025. A <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/truckload-carriers-balance-networks-as-tariff-uncertainty-shifts-demand-6052453">reshuffling of capacity</a> across lanes, driven in part by higher US tariffs, is also affecting demand. In the second quarter, Werner Enterprises increased its truck count 1.4% sequentially from the first quarter and 1.1% from a year ago to 7,545 trucks. That’s still a 12.3% reduction compared with a peak of 8,600 trucks in the fourth quarter of 2022, according to company data. “Our one-way fleet size increased sequentially, driven in part from engineered pop-up solutions in response to customer requests,” Derek Leathers, Werner chairman and CEO, told Wall Street analysts July 29. “We have assets in place to support growth through the rest of this year,” Leathers said. <h3>Adding capacity as needed </h3>Other large trucking companies say shippers are seeking to ensure carriers can ramp up capacity as demand grows. “Their conversations with us focus on how to dynamically optimize their supply chain and capacity plans to meet their service needs,” Bradley Hicks, president of dedicated contract services for J.B. Hunt Transport Services, said during a July 15 earnings call. J.B. Hunt wants to be ready with people and equipment “whenever that demand does occur over the next few months,” Spencer Frazier, executive vice president of sales and marketing, said during the call. J.B. Hunt Truckload, the company’s smallest division, increased its one-way truckload capacity by 10.2% sequentially and 7.6% from a year ago in the second quarter. “We’re not banking on big demand improvement, but we do think the supply story will continue to play out,” with more carriers exiting the market, Werner’s Leathers said. Executives at large truckload carriers have been predicting — incorrectly — an imminent shortfall in capacity as smaller providers have left the market over the past three years. Today, they’re more cautious about predictions. “Anecdotally, we hear about failures in our industry, [and] some are sizeable fleets, but it’s always hard to have a good feel about what’s happening with capacity,” Knight-Swift’s Miller said. “We think it’s going to be a slow process for capacity to exit the market.” Contact William B. Cassidy at <a href="mailto:bill.cassidy@spglobal.com">bill.cassidy@spglobal.com</a>. </div>

Large US truckload carriers are beginning to add capacity to their fleets after three years of deep cuts, pushing the Journal of Commerce Truckload Capacity Index (TCI) up 1.1 percentage points sequentially in the second quarter to a reading of 76%. The capacity gain was only a trickle of tractors, but it caused the first increase in the TCI in 11 quarters, signaling growing — if not cautious — confidence among trucking executives that the freight downturn that began in 2022, while not yet finished, is finally approaching its end. The TCI was down 0.9 of a percentage point year over year, but the gain from the first quarter indicates the index could soon turn positive on an annualized basis, perhaps by year-end. The increase isn’t a reaction to higher demand in today’s US domestic freight market. Instead, the gain in capacity shows truckload carriers are slowly and judiciously preparing for higher volumes that may arrive in the fourth quarter of 2025 and early 2026. Contract rates negotiated with shippers are either flat or up by low single-digit percentages, carriers report. Capacity is still widely available, and while small and midsized carriers continue to leave the market, shippers retain pricing power. “The impact of accumulated inflation remains a drag on the amount of truckload freight generated in relation to consumer spending,” Frank Lonegro, president and CEO of Landstar System, told Wall Street analysts during a July 29 earnings call. “Truck capacity continued to be readily available with small pockets of supply-demand equilibrium and market conditions continue to favor the shipper,” Lonegro said. Several truckload shippers have told the Journal of Commerce that they’ve given some carriers small rate increases this year simply to retain access to their capacity, not because of any significant tightness in the marketplace. Looking ahead The second-quarter increase in the TCI — which measures changes in actual truck counts at a select group of large, publicly-owned truckload carriers — indicates the US domestic freight market is doing more than just bouncing along the bottom it hit in mid-2022. Shippers are evaluating their capacity needs for the second half of the year and for 2026 amid volatile changes in US trade and tariff policy. Those who expect freight demand and the US economy to improve are looking to secure capacity ahead of any crunch. “We’re having some discussions around doing some peak projects,” Adam Miller, CEO of Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings, told Wall Street analysts July 23. “There’s some discussion about what capacity may look like at scale,” Miller said during an earnings call. “[When capacity gets tight], that’s when a carrier of our size at our different brands has the ability to come in and solve large problems for our customers.” Knight-Swift cut its average truckload tractor count by 6.6% year over year in the second quarter and by 6.3% in the first half of 2025. CFO Andrew Hess told analysts Knight-Swift’s truck count should be stable through the rest of 2025. A reshuffling of capacity across lanes, driven in part by higher US tariffs, is also affecting demand. In the second quarter, Werner Enterprises increased its truck count 1.4% sequentially from the first quarter and 1.1% from a year ago to 7,545 trucks. That’s still a 12.3% reduction compared with a peak of 8,600 trucks in the fourth quarter of 2022, according to company data. “Our one-way fleet size increased sequentially, driven in part from engineered pop-up solutions in response to customer requests,” Derek Leathers, Werner chairman and CEO, told Wall Street analysts July 29. “We have assets in place to support growth through the rest of this year,” Leathers said. Adding capacity as needed Other large trucking companies say shippers are seeking to ensure carriers can ramp up capacity as demand grows. “Their conversations with us focus on how to dynamically optimize their supply chain and capacity plans to meet their service needs,” Bradley Hicks, president of dedicated contract services for J.B. Hunt Transport Services, said during a July 15 earnings call. J.B. Hunt wants to be ready with people and equipment “whenever that demand does occur over the next few months,” Spencer Frazier, executive vice president of sales and marketing, said during the call. J.B. Hunt Truckload, the company’s smallest division, increased its one-way truckload capacity by 10.2% sequentially and 7.6% from a year ago in the second quarter. “We’re not banking on big demand improvement, but we do think the supply story will continue to play out,” with more carriers exiting the market, Werner’s Leathers said. Executives at large truckload carriers have been predicting — incorrectly — an imminent shortfall in capacity as smaller providers have left the market over the past three years. Today, they’re more cautious about predictions. “Anecdotally, we hear about failures in our industry, [and] some are sizeable fleets, but it’s always hard to have a good feel about what’s happening with capacity,” Knight-Swift’s Miller said. “We think it’s going to be a slow process for capacity to exit the market.” Contact William B. Cassidy at bill.cassidy@spglobal.com .

Truckload

Truckload capacity index turns upward as carriers cautiously add trucks

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">Trans-Pacific rates are falling sharply, but the ability of carriers to withdraw capacity, the potential for continued diversions away from the Red Sea, and long-term changes to the global trade landscape due to US tariff policy mean liners have levers to pull.</div>

Trans-Pacific rates are falling sharply, but the ability of carriers to withdraw capacity, the potential for continued diversions away from the Red Sea, and long-term changes to the global trade landscape due to US tariff policy mean liners have levers to pull.

<div class="phx-topic">Trans-Pacific spot rates are plunging — a bellwether indicator informing analysts’ negative view of container shipping as it heads into the final stretch of the year and begins to look out into 2026. Translation: Pressure on the market is growing despite a multi-level capacity squeeze due to ongoing diversions around southern Africa, port congestion in Asia and Europe, whiplash US tariff policy, blank sailings, and carrier network adjustments and alliance reshuffling. <div class="wrapper-narrow float-right-element"><img src="/images/phoenix/6056712_0.1.jpg"></img></div>The combined effects have not prevented rates from falling significantly in 2025. The Freightos Baltic Global Container Index is down 57% over the past year while the Drewry World Container Shipping Index is down 50%. Growing evidence of weakness led Ocean Network Express (ONE), the sixth-largest carrier in capacity terms, according to Alphaliner, <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/one-cuts-profit-forecast-as-falling-rates-excess-capacity-weigh-on-carriers-6055266">to announce Aug. 1 it would reduce its full-year profit expectation by $400 million</a>, noting the “overall market environment may not prove as robust as initially anticipated.” Global banks are taking note as well. “Volumes are likely to soften sharply post end-July as shippers exhaust rush orders,” HSBC analysts wrote on July 20. “Even worse, the accelerated vessel delivery schedule will collide with potentially weakening demand, exacerbating overcapacity.” Two conclusions are that, despite long-term industry consolidation and pressure on capacity from port congestion and diversions, forces of supply and demand remain alive and well. And secondly, carriers are behaving in ways they had not previously. “The market will continue to be driven by supply and demand dynamics,” Hua Joo Tan, analyst at Linerlytica, told the Journal of Commerce. “The current [trans-Pacific] rate collapse is a testament to my point.” Yet there is evidence the behavior of carriers has changed in ways that will affect the market on a short-term basis — for example, a willingness to hit the gas pedal on rate increases at the first sign of market tightness, reacting faster and driving spot rates higher than in pre-COVID-19 times, according to many observers. This happened most recently in the trans-Pacific the moment 145% US tariffs on China were eased to 30% on May 12, unleashing cargo that had been held back over the previous month. Trans-Pacific eastbound spot rates were $2,220 per FEU on May 9, as measured by Platts, but had shot up 270% to $6,040 per FEU by June 6, at which point they started to fall. Carriers’ response to the brief opportunity included implementing peak season surcharges (PSSs) on contract cargo despite the lack of a firm seasonality connection, sources said, another indication of carriers’ opportunism. “PSSs have shifted from yielding higher revenue in certain months to a cash grab when carriers expect or have full ships, regardless of whether or not it’s a traditional peak season specifically,” said one forwarder. <h3>Carriers not without weapons </h3>Further out, sources are less negative on the industry, seeing a combination of carriers’ multi-pronged ability to withdraw capacity and the potential for continued diversions away from the Red Sea, as well as long-term changes to the trade landscape due to US tariff policy. “Overall, for the container sector, recent long-term trade deals present a healthier outlook than expected earlier this year when negative trade rhetoric had taken hold,” Jefferies analyst Omar Nokta wrote July 28. “It appears these trade deals are supportive to global trade as compared to prior fears that aggressive US tariffs would stifle trade. “Whether this leads to a long-term compelling demand equation remains to be seen, but we are more inclined to believe container shipping will benefit as supply chains become more diversified and thus more complex from a transportation perspective,” he added. Others say carriers still have more levers to pull to withdraw capacity and prevent rates from slipping into unprofitable territory. “The carriers will use two levers, one is the idle fleet can go up significantly and the second is they will send a lot more ships to the demolition yards, as many of the old ships are operating on heavy fuel and not compliant with environment laws, especially in the EU,” said Sanjay Tejwani, a veteran carrier and forwarding executive and now CEO of consulting firm 365 Logistics. “They will use these two levers including more tactical tools of blanking and slow-steaming to help them manage capacity to ensure rates don’t drop to unprofitable levels,” he added. “From a long-term perspective, rates may not go back to $5,000 to the West Coast, but they will remain at fairly healthy levels and will continue to remain elevated compared to pre-COVID levels.” Contact Peter Tirschwell at <a href="mailto:peter.tirschwell@spglobal.com">peter.tirschwell@spglobal.com</a>. </div>

Trans-Pacific spot rates are plunging — a bellwether indicator informing analysts’ negative view of container shipping as it heads into the final stretch of the year and begins to look out into 2026. Translation: Pressure on the market is growing despite a multi-level capacity squeeze due to ongoing diversions around southern Africa, port congestion in Asia and Europe, whiplash US tariff policy, blank sailings, and carrier network adjustments and alliance reshuffling. The combined effects have not prevented rates from falling significantly in 2025. The Freightos Baltic Global Container Index is down 57% over the past year while the Drewry World Container Shipping Index is down 50%. Growing evidence of weakness led Ocean Network Express (ONE), the sixth-largest carrier in capacity terms, according to Alphaliner, to announce Aug. 1 it would reduce its full-year profit expectation by $400 million , noting the “overall market environment may not prove as robust as initially anticipated.” Global banks are taking note as well. “Volumes are likely to soften sharply post end-July as shippers exhaust rush orders,” HSBC analysts wrote on July 20. “Even worse, the accelerated vessel delivery schedule will collide with potentially weakening demand, exacerbating overcapacity.” Two conclusions are that, despite long-term industry consolidation and pressure on capacity from port congestion and diversions, forces of supply and demand remain alive and well. And secondly, carriers are behaving in ways they had not previously. “The market will continue to be driven by supply and demand dynamics,” Hua Joo Tan, analyst at Linerlytica, told the Journal of Commerce. “The current [trans-Pacific] rate collapse is a testament to my point.” Yet there is evidence the behavior of carriers has changed in ways that will affect the market on a short-term basis — for example, a willingness to hit the gas pedal on rate increases at the first sign of market tightness, reacting faster and driving spot rates higher than in pre-COVID-19 times, according to many observers. This happened most recently in the trans-Pacific the moment 145% US tariffs on China were eased to 30% on May 12, unleashing cargo that had been held back over the previous month. Trans-Pacific eastbound spot rates were $2,220 per FEU on May 9, as measured by Platts, but had shot up 270% to $6,040 per FEU by June 6, at which point they started to fall. Carriers’ response to the brief opportunity included implementing peak season surcharges (PSSs) on contract cargo despite the lack of a firm seasonality connection, sources said, another indication of carriers’ opportunism. “PSSs have shifted from yielding higher revenue in certain months to a cash grab when carriers expect or have full ships, regardless of whether or not it’s a traditional peak season specifically,” said one forwarder. Carriers not without weapons Further out, sources are less negative on the industry, seeing a combination of carriers’ multi-pronged ability to withdraw capacity and the potential for continued diversions away from the Red Sea, as well as long-term changes to the trade landscape due to US tariff policy. “Overall, for the container sector, recent long-term trade deals present a healthier outlook than expected earlier this year when negative trade rhetoric had taken hold,” Jefferies analyst Omar Nokta wrote July 28. “It appears these trade deals are supportive to global trade as compared to prior fears that aggressive US tariffs would stifle trade. “Whether this leads to a long-term compelling demand equation remains to be seen, but we are more inclined to believe container shipping will benefit as supply chains become more diversified and thus more complex from a transportation perspective,” he added. Others say carriers still have more levers to pull to withdraw capacity and prevent rates from slipping into unprofitable territory. “The carriers will use two levers, one is the idle fleet can go up significantly and the second is they will send a lot more ships to the demolition yards, as many of the old ships are operating on heavy fuel and not compliant with environment laws, especially in the EU,” said Sanjay Tejwani, a veteran carrier and forwarding executive and now CEO of consulting firm 365 Logistics. “They will use these two levers including more tactical tools of blanking and slow-steaming to help them manage capacity to ensure rates don’t drop to unprofitable levels,” he added. “From a long-term perspective, rates may not go back to $5,000 to the West Coast, but they will remain at fairly healthy levels and will continue to remain elevated compared to pre-COVID levels.” Contact Peter Tirschwell at peter.tirschwell@spglobal.com .

Maritime

Container Shipping News

Container lines

Ocean carriers still have cards to play despite weakening container market

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">The number of unique services on routes navigating through Houthi-controlled waters has doubled since the third quarter of last year, according to data from eeSea, as carriers who do not call Israel feel growing comfort sailing the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait.</div>

The number of unique services on routes navigating through Houthi-controlled waters has doubled since the third quarter of last year, according to data from eeSea, as carriers who do not call Israel feel growing comfort sailing the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait.

<div class="phx-topic">The Red Sea is seeing “a quiet revival” in shipping services as regional carriers steadily add capacity to vessel strings passing through the Houthi-controlled Bab-el-Mandeb Strait, according to ocean visibility provider eeSea. Some are Asia-Europe services passing through the Suez Canal, while others are regional services calling at Red Sea ports such as Jeddah, Destine Ozuygur, chief analyst at eeSea, said in a market update. “The number of unique service versions on this trade has doubled since Q3 2024, when there was an average of eight services on any given month,” Ozuygur said. “This gradual comeback now boasts 16 services and a 54% year-to-date planned capacity increase that is set to peak at 104,000 TEUs of proforma capacity in August.” Many of the services are operated by carriers from China or those based in the Middle East or India that serve the Asia-Middle East trade lane with small- to medium-sized vessels. The Red Sea has effectively been out of bounds since December 2023, when Yemen’s Houthi militants began attacking commercial shipping passing through the narrow Bab-el-Mandeb Strait at the southern entrance to the Red Sea as a show of solidarity for Gaza amid the Israel-Hamas war. Major carriers on the Asia-Europe and Asia-US East Coast trade lanes were then forced to reroute ships around the Cape of Good Hope in southern Africa, which has absorbed an estimated 10% of global capacity and extended transit times by two weeks. Most of the carriers on the Asia-Middle East trade and those passing through the Red Sea en route to Europe do not make calls to Israel on any of their strings, regardless of trade lane, “so that probably lends them confidence” to sail through Houthi-controlled waters, Ozuygur said. After no attacks on shipping were reported since this past December, pressure was beginning to build on the major container shipping companies to return to Red Sea transits. However, in July, two bulk carriers were attacked and sunk, killing three crew and leaving 11 missing, effectively <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/new-houthi-attacks-likely-kill-hopes-of-shipping-returning-to-red-sea-this-year-6040923">ending any chance of a Red Sea return this year</a>. CMA CGM has some services operating in the Red Sea, but group CFO Ramon Fernandez told the Journal of Commerce last week that security in the region was strictly monitored. “We have a constant position here, which is that vessels will pass the Bab-al-Mandab Strait when security conditions are met,” he said. “That means security for the crew, security for the vessel and for the cargo. “We have some vessels going through when these conditions are met, and for the rest of the fleet must go around the Cape of Good Hope,” Fernandez added. “This is a constant policy the group has followed since the early days of last year.” <h3>Navigating dangerous waters </h3>Of the Asia-Europe services that continue to operate through the strait and the Suez Canal, 39% call ports outside the East Mediterranean and 33% make direct calls to Russian ports, according to eeSea. “A score of new or improved services announced as recently as Q2 2025 are not restricted to regional carriers alone,” Ozuygur noted. She outlined some of the services that are currently sailing through the Houthi-controlled waterway. A China United Lines extra loader is scheduled to begin operations in the last week of August that will complement the carrier’s Red Sea Service (REX) that began in December 2023. Cosco increased the frequency of the RES2 service operated alongside PIL since March 2024 from a 12-day to a weekly service with the addition of three more sailings at the end of April. Cosco also introduced an additional RES1 service in early May, partnering with OOCL and currently operating with three general cargo vessels. Hong Kong-based Kawa Shipping operates the China-Europe Express (CEX) service between Ningbo and Wilhelmshaven in Germany through the Red Sea that was launched in 2023. In June, its Eastern Mediterranean Express (EMX) service covering the Red Sea, Egypt and Turkey was expanded with the addition of four more vessels. Taiwanese carrier Wan Hai Lines will double the number of vessels on its AR2 service to eight later this month, while increasing the sailing frequency from every 14 days to seven days. India-based Sea Legend Shipping introduced their Asia-Red Sea service in mid-June with three of nine available vessels currently providing voyages. Dubai’s CStar Lines began their China-Red Sea services FRS1, FRS1-X, and FRS2 in May and June, and Singapore headquartered SeaLead Shipping recently reinstated its China-Red Sea (CRS) service, which has not been operational since December 2022. Carriers in the Ocean Alliance — CMA CGM, Cosco, OOCL and Evergreen — operate the MED5 service via the Suez Canal to connect Asia to its Mediterranean network. “While the Asia-Europe trade has largely suffered from longer transit times and increased CO2 emissions tied to military conflict in the zone, the secondary Asia-Middle East trade serving the Red Sea is finally witnessing a quiet revival,” Ozuygur said. Contact Greg Knowler at <a href="mailto:greg.knowler@spglobal.com">greg.knowler@spglobal.com</a>. </div>

The Red Sea is seeing “a quiet revival” in shipping services as regional carriers steadily add capacity to vessel strings passing through the Houthi-controlled Bab-el-Mandeb Strait, according to ocean visibility provider eeSea. Some are Asia-Europe services passing through the Suez Canal, while others are regional services calling at Red Sea ports such as Jeddah, Destine Ozuygur, chief analyst at eeSea, said in a market update. “The number of unique service versions on this trade has doubled since Q3 2024, when there was an average of eight services on any given month,” Ozuygur said. “This gradual comeback now boasts 16 services and a 54% year-to-date planned capacity increase that is set to peak at 104,000 TEUs of proforma capacity in August.” Many of the services are operated by carriers from China or those based in the Middle East or India that serve the Asia-Middle East trade lane with small- to medium-sized vessels. The Red Sea has effectively been out of bounds since December 2023, when Yemen’s Houthi militants began attacking commercial shipping passing through the narrow Bab-el-Mandeb Strait at the southern entrance to the Red Sea as a show of solidarity for Gaza amid the Israel-Hamas war. Major carriers on the Asia-Europe and Asia-US East Coast trade lanes were then forced to reroute ships around the Cape of Good Hope in southern Africa, which has absorbed an estimated 10% of global capacity and extended transit times by two weeks. Most of the carriers on the Asia-Middle East trade and those passing through the Red Sea en route to Europe do not make calls to Israel on any of their strings, regardless of trade lane, “so that probably lends them confidence” to sail through Houthi-controlled waters, Ozuygur said. After no attacks on shipping were reported since this past December, pressure was beginning to build on the major container shipping companies to return to Red Sea transits. However, in July, two bulk carriers were attacked and sunk, killing three crew and leaving 11 missing, effectively ending any chance of a Red Sea return this year . CMA CGM has some services operating in the Red Sea, but group CFO Ramon Fernandez told the Journal of Commerce last week that security in the region was strictly monitored. “We have a constant position here, which is that vessels will pass the Bab-al-Mandab Strait when security conditions are met,” he said. “That means security for the crew, security for the vessel and for the cargo. “We have some vessels going through when these conditions are met, and for the rest of the fleet must go around the Cape of Good Hope,” Fernandez added. “This is a constant policy the group has followed since the early days of last year.” Navigating dangerous waters Of the Asia-Europe services that continue to operate through the strait and the Suez Canal, 39% call ports outside the East Mediterranean and 33% make direct calls to Russian ports, according to eeSea. “A score of new or improved services announced as recently as Q2 2025 are not restricted to regional carriers alone,” Ozuygur noted. She outlined some of the services that are currently sailing through the Houthi-controlled waterway. A China United Lines extra loader is scheduled to begin operations in the last week of August that will complement the carrier’s Red Sea Service (REX) that began in December 2023. Cosco increased the frequency of the RES2 service operated alongside PIL since March 2024 from a 12-day to a weekly service with the addition of three more sailings at the end of April. Cosco also introduced an additional RES1 service in early May, partnering with OOCL and currently operating with three general cargo vessels. Hong Kong-based Kawa Shipping operates the China-Europe Express (CEX) service between Ningbo and Wilhelmshaven in Germany through the Red Sea that was launched in 2023. In June, its Eastern Mediterranean Express (EMX) service covering the Red Sea, Egypt and Turkey was expanded with the addition of four more vessels. Taiwanese carrier Wan Hai Lines will double the number of vessels on its AR2 service to eight later this month, while increasing the sailing frequency from every 14 days to seven days. India-based Sea Legend Shipping introduced their Asia-Red Sea service in mid-June with three of nine available vessels currently providing voyages. Dubai’s CStar Lines began their China-Red Sea services FRS1, FRS1-X, and FRS2 in May and June, and Singapore headquartered SeaLead Shipping recently reinstated its China-Red Sea (CRS) service, which has not been operational since December 2022. Carriers in the Ocean Alliance — CMA CGM, Cosco, OOCL and Evergreen — operate the MED5 service via the Suez Canal to connect Asia to its Mediterranean network. “While the Asia-Europe trade has largely suffered from longer transit times and increased CO2 emissions tied to military conflict in the zone, the secondary Asia-Middle East trade serving the Red Sea is finally witnessing a quiet revival,” Ozuygur said. Contact Greg Knowler at greg.knowler@spglobal.com .

Asia-Europe

Red Sea ‘revival’ taking place as regional carriers lead the way

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">A resurgence of nuclear projects in the US should provide a steady stream of project cargo work through the end of the decade. </div>

A resurgence of nuclear projects in the US should provide a steady stream of project cargo work through the end of the decade.

<div class="phx-topic">After decades of relatively dormant development, the nuclear industry is in comeback mode, as the US looks to develop large-scale, low-carbon energy sources to feed power-hungry technologies such as artificial intelligence (AI) and the energy-intensive production of smartphone microchips. That development could significantly power up breakbulk and project cargo activity over the next decade. To support the varying stages of the nuclear fuel cycle, policy changes and investments are lining up for the US to execute an extensive buildout of new and redeveloped power plants, reactors, mines and enrichment facilities. The second Trump administration has shifted national energy policy to prioritize fossil fuels over renewable energy sources. But that shift has also included a heavy focus on nuclear. After declaring a national energy emergency upon taking office, Trump issued a flurry of executive orders in May targeted at reinvigorating the US nuclear energy industry and its supply chain. The orders called for quadrupling domestic nuclear capacity to 400 gigawatts (GW) by 2050 and having 10 large reactors under construction in the US by 2030. Jack Britt, senior director of fuel and radiation safety at the Nuclear Energy Institute in Washington, DC, told the Journal of Commerce that the US push to rebuild its nuclear fuel supply chain has renewed investments in domestic uranium production, conversion and enrichment. “These efforts require major infrastructure,” Britt said. He cited active projects, including the restart of Honeywell’s Metropolis Works conversion facility in Illinois and expanded enrichment activity at the American Centrifuge Plant in Ohio, where Centrus Energy has begun producing high-assay, low-enriched uranium (HALEU) for advanced reactors. “That investment is likely to drive increased activity across the supply chain, including manufacturing, shipping and other services that support nuclear development and deployment,” Britt said. Recharging the US nuclear industry has received broad bipartisan support as a means to generate massive amounts of power consistently, and with little to no carbon emissions. Kim Casey, investor relations manager for US uranium provider Energy Fuels, told the Journal of Commerce that those advantages — along with the rapidly growing energy demands of expansive AI datacenters and chip-powered modern technologies — are positioning nuclear as an attractive energy option. “There’s some excitement that nuclear energy is going to fill a gap, because everybody wants to use their phones,” she said. “Everybody wants their data, and they want it now.” <h3>Plant potential for project cargo </h3>The US nuclear industry is coming full circle for Edlow International Company, which has provided global nuclear and radioactive transport since 1957. President Jack Edlow told the Journal of Commerce that when he entered the industry over 50 years ago, most of the world’s uranium was produced, enriched and converted into nuclear fuel in the US. “Now, it’s pretty much the opposite,” he said. “This gives us an opportunity to reconstitute our industry and go back into the world market with US uranium conversion, enrichment and reactor designs, and I’m hopeful that’s what’s going to happen over the next five to 10 years.” Edlow said a significant opportunity for breakbulk and project cargo will come from the development of facilities to enrich processed uranium so it can become fuel for power plants. Nearly all of the enriched uranium the US relies on is imported, and Urenco USA’s centrifuge enrichment plant in New Mexico is the only commercially operating enrichment plant in the US. “New enrichment plants will be big for cargo,” Edlow said. “Those are huge components weighing hundreds of tons each that will come in.” A handful of projects are in the works and could cost $5 billion to $8 billion, depending on their size, Edlow said. “They will require a lot of equipment and time to build,” he said. “You’re probably looking at four years or more to get large-scale capacity.” Among those projects, nuclear supplier Orano USA is developing a multibillion-dollar uranium enrichment facility in Tennessee. In May, Urenco began production at the first phase of an expansion that will increase its New Mexico plant’s capacity by 15% by 2027. And in April, BWX Technologies Inc. (BWXT) acquired 97 acres of land to develop a centrifuge manufacturing facility to support uranium enrichment. Another key source of project cargo would be the development of nuclear plants and reactors. According to the World Nuclear Association (WNA), there are 94 operating reactors in the US, but 41 that have been shut down over the years. Although no new reactors are currently under construction in the US, 21 have been proposed, according to the WNA. A potential growth area for project development is advanced small modular reactors, or SMRs. Whereas traditional nuclear reactors can cost billions and take decades to build, SMRs would consist of modular components that can be delivered and assembled onsite. Contact Autumn Cafiero Giusti at <a href="mailto:autumn@autumngiusti.com">autumn@autumngiusti.com</a>. </div>

After decades of relatively dormant development, the nuclear industry is in comeback mode, as the US looks to develop large-scale, low-carbon energy sources to feed power-hungry technologies such as artificial intelligence (AI) and the energy-intensive production of smartphone microchips. That development could significantly power up breakbulk and project cargo activity over the next decade. To support the varying stages of the nuclear fuel cycle, policy changes and investments are lining up for the US to execute an extensive buildout of new and redeveloped power plants, reactors, mines and enrichment facilities. The second Trump administration has shifted national energy policy to prioritize fossil fuels over renewable energy sources. But that shift has also included a heavy focus on nuclear. After declaring a national energy emergency upon taking office, Trump issued a flurry of executive orders in May targeted at reinvigorating the US nuclear energy industry and its supply chain. The orders called for quadrupling domestic nuclear capacity to 400 gigawatts (GW) by 2050 and having 10 large reactors under construction in the US by 2030. Jack Britt, senior director of fuel and radiation safety at the Nuclear Energy Institute in Washington, DC, told the Journal of Commerce that the US push to rebuild its nuclear fuel supply chain has renewed investments in domestic uranium production, conversion and enrichment. “These efforts require major infrastructure,” Britt said. He cited active projects, including the restart of Honeywell’s Metropolis Works conversion facility in Illinois and expanded enrichment activity at the American Centrifuge Plant in Ohio, where Centrus Energy has begun producing high-assay, low-enriched uranium (HALEU) for advanced reactors. “That investment is likely to drive increased activity across the supply chain, including manufacturing, shipping and other services that support nuclear development and deployment,” Britt said. Recharging the US nuclear industry has received broad bipartisan support as a means to generate massive amounts of power consistently, and with little to no carbon emissions. Kim Casey, investor relations manager for US uranium provider Energy Fuels, told the Journal of Commerce that those advantages — along with the rapidly growing energy demands of expansive AI datacenters and chip-powered modern technologies — are positioning nuclear as an attractive energy option. “There’s some excitement that nuclear energy is going to fill a gap, because everybody wants to use their phones,” she said. “Everybody wants their data, and they want it now.” Plant potential for project cargo The US nuclear industry is coming full circle for Edlow International Company, which has provided global nuclear and radioactive transport since 1957. President Jack Edlow told the Journal of Commerce that when he entered the industry over 50 years ago, most of the world’s uranium was produced, enriched and converted into nuclear fuel in the US. “Now, it’s pretty much the opposite,” he said. “This gives us an opportunity to reconstitute our industry and go back into the world market with US uranium conversion, enrichment and reactor designs, and I’m hopeful that’s what’s going to happen over the next five to 10 years.” Edlow said a significant opportunity for breakbulk and project cargo will come from the development of facilities to enrich processed uranium so it can become fuel for power plants. Nearly all of the enriched uranium the US relies on is imported, and Urenco USA’s centrifuge enrichment plant in New Mexico is the only commercially operating enrichment plant in the US. “New enrichment plants will be big for cargo,” Edlow said. “Those are huge components weighing hundreds of tons each that will come in.” A handful of projects are in the works and could cost $5 billion to $8 billion, depending on their size, Edlow said. “They will require a lot of equipment and time to build,” he said. “You’re probably looking at four years or more to get large-scale capacity.” Among those projects, nuclear supplier Orano USA is developing a multibillion-dollar uranium enrichment facility in Tennessee. In May, Urenco began production at the first phase of an expansion that will increase its New Mexico plant’s capacity by 15% by 2027. And in April, BWX Technologies Inc. (BWXT) acquired 97 acres of land to develop a centrifuge manufacturing facility to support uranium enrichment. Another key source of project cargo would be the development of nuclear plants and reactors. According to the World Nuclear Association (WNA), there are 94 operating reactors in the US, but 41 that have been shut down over the years. Although no new reactors are currently under construction in the US, 21 have been proposed, according to the WNA. A potential growth area for project development is advanced small modular reactors, or SMRs. Whereas traditional nuclear reactors can cost billions and take decades to build, SMRs would consist of modular components that can be delivered and assembled onsite. Contact Autumn Cafiero Giusti at autumn@autumngiusti.com .

Energy projects

Project cargo

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US policy, investments line up for project cargo-dependent nuclear buildout

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At SSA Marine Mexico, we firmly believe that business development must go hand in hand with social and environmental well-being. Our vision is not solely focused on operating efficiently, but also on creating a meaningful and positive impact in the communities where we are present. Since 1995, we have reaffirmed this commitment through tangible actions that reflect our core values of responsibility, solidarity, and sustainability. <span class="joc_admin__inline-image joc_admin__inline-image-aspect-ratio-3_2 joc_admin__inline-image-position-left joc_admin__inline-image-size-medium" data-figure-size="medium" data-figure-position="left" data-figure-aspect-ratio="3:2"><img src="/content-assets/1752584535914_Photo%201.jpg" alt="" class="joc_admin__inline-image-inherit"> A Year of Major Achievements Over the past year, we allocated more than $107,000 USD to the implementation of 60 social and environmental projects, positively impacting over 7,800 people across various regions of Mexico. Each initiative was designed with a holistic approach, addressing key areas that contribute to long-term community development. Education: Laying the Foundation for the Future Education is one of the most powerful tools to promote social mobility and equitable development. At SSA Marine Mexico, we support academic initiatives that inspire and empower the next generation of leaders. One of our most impactful partnerships was with the University of Colima, where we sponsored the “Reto Camp” program. This initiative encourages university students to develop innovative solutions in the fields of sustainability, logistics, and port operations, offering them mentorship, tools, and real-world challenges to solve. In addition, we donated microscopes, school supplies, and educational materials to institutions in underserved communities, helping to improve the learning environment and provide students with the resources they need to succeed. Health and Sports: Promoting Wellness We believe that healthy communities are strong communities. We have supported several local sporting events and provided direct assistance to talented athletes, enabling them to pursue their passions and represent their regions with pride. Beyond sports, we also strengthened our collaboration with critical emergency response organizations such as the Mexican Red Cross and Civil Protection. Our contributions helped enhance their readiness and capabilities in times of crisis, ensuring better outcomes for those affected by emergencies. Supporting Vulnerable Groups: Reaching Those Who Need It Most A core part of our social responsibility efforts is directed toward supporting vulnerable populations. We have contributed to a range of initiatives focused on children, migrants, and at-risk families. These efforts included donations to orphanages and shelters, as well as support for the National Institute of Migration and grassroots organizations dedicated to protecting and empowering people facing adversity. By standing with those in need, we reinforce our commitment to inclusion and social justice, values that are central to our identity as a responsible company. <span class="joc_admin__inline-image joc_admin__inline-image-aspect-ratio-3_2 joc_admin__inline-image-position-left joc_admin__inline-image-size-medium" data-figure-size="medium" data-figure-position="left" data-figure-aspect-ratio="3:2"><img src="/content-assets/1752584944645_Photo%202.png" alt="" class="joc_admin__inline-image-inherit">Culture: Strengthening Community Identity Cultural identity is a key element in building resilient and united communities. At SSA Marine Mexico, we actively participate in the organization and sponsorship of cultural events that celebrate local traditions and foster civic pride. Working alongside port authorities and municipal governments, we helped bring music, art, and heritage to the forefront, creating spaces for community engagement and intercultural dialogue. Environment: Investing in the Planet Our commitment to sustainability goes beyond operations—it’s a philosophy that drives every decision we make. We have partnered with environmental institutions to carry out reforestation campaigns, beach cleanups, and conservation efforts. In collaboration with the Institute for the Environment, we supported initiatives aimed at decarbonization, biodiversity protection, and environmental education. By involving our employees and local volunteers in these actions, we also foster a culture of environmental stewardship throughout our organization and our surrounding communities. Innovation for a Sustainable Future Sustainability is not just about doing good—it’s also about doing things better. In 2024, we invested $22 million USD in the acquisition of 11 state-of-the-art E-RTG cranes. These electric rubber-tired gantry cranes represent a significant technological advancement in port equipment. Seven of them are already operating on clean electric energy, resulting in a reduction of nearly 4,000 tons of CO₂ emissions and improving operational efficiency by 7%. The remaining four cranes are fully compatible with future electrification, underscoring our long-term strategy to modernize our operations in an environmentally responsible way. This investment is part of a broader innovation roadmap that includes digitalization, automation, and cleaner energy sources—all designed to ensure that our ports continue to grow without compromising the health of our planet. Building a Better Tomorrow, Together At SSA Marine Mexico, we understand that sustainability is a shared and ongoing responsibility. True impact requires collaboration across sectors, long-term vision, and unwavering commitment. That is why we continue to work hand-in-hand with local authorities, non-profit organizations, universities, and our own employees to create solutions that are both scalable and sustainable. Our journey is far from over. In the years ahead, we will continue to deepen our community engagement, explore cleaner technologies, and strengthen the social fabric of the regions where we operate. Each initiative, no matter the size, is a step toward building a future where business success goes hand-in-hand with human and environmental prosperity. We are proud of what we have achieved in 2024, but we are even more excited about what lies ahead. SSA Marine Mexico — Moving the World, Caring for People and Planet. LINK: https://www.ssamarine.mx/

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