<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">In a slow-growth economy, truck pricing will rise anywhere from 0.5 to 6.5 percent over the next two years, but could shoot much higher if demand surges, Stifel Nicolaus analyst David Ross warns. </div>

In a slow-growth economy, truck pricing will rise anywhere from 0.5 to 6.5 percent over the next two years, but could shoot much higher if demand surges, Stifel Nicolaus analyst David Ross warns.

<div>Shippers: Don't get complacent about comparitively weak truck pricing.Although rate hikes are likely to stay in the low to mid-single-digit percentage range over the next year or two, double-digit price increases could slam shippers if the economy shifts into higher gear, a Wall Street analyst warns.And in the long run, he said, the direction truck pricing will take is up. Capacity that has leached out of trucking networks since the recession isn't making a quick comeback.Truck “rates could easily go up by double digits again sometime in the next two years, but the timing is hard to pinpoint,” David Ross,...

Shippers: Don't get complacent about comparitively weak truck pricing. Although rate hikes are likely to stay in the low to mid-single-digit percentage range over the next year or two, double-digit price increases could slam shippers if the economy shifts into higher gear, a Wall Street analyst warns. And in the long run, he said, the direction truck pricing will take is up. Capacity that has leached out of trucking networks since the recession isn't making a quick comeback. Truck “rates could easily go up by double digits again sometime in the next two years, but the timing is hard to pinpoint,” David Ross, managing director of global transportation for investment research firm Stifel Nicolaus, told carriers, logistics companies and shippers at the SMC3 Connections 2013 conference June 21. That pinpointing is hard because the earthbound economic recovery, now in its fourth year, stubbornly refuses to gain much altitude. U.S. gross domestic product rose 2.4 percent in the first quarter, according to the latest Commerce Department estimate, after climbing only 0.4 percent in the 2012 fourth quarter. The promise of higher freight demand many motor carriers saw in the hectic spring of 2010, when the economic recovery was in its early stages, still floats on a far horizon, like a Maersk Triple-E container ship. With such slow economic growth, “It’s been hard for carriers to push through higher rates,” Ross said, especially as the pace of recovery slowed in 2012. Despite rising equipment costs and the much-publicized driver shortage , “[t]ruckload rates aren’t doing much more than inflation,” he said. Less-than-truckload carriers are doing a bit better, Ross said, increasing rates 3 to 4 percent. Ross forecast trucking rates would rise anywhere between 0.5 and 6.5 percent over the next two years, depending on how quickly the economy expands. More contraction could send rates into “negative” territory, he said. But a surge in freight activity could lead to a capacity crunch that would send rates soaring, he warned. LTL demand already exceeds "active capacity," measured by active terminal doors, and truckload capacity and demand are close to equilibrium. Shippers aren’t planning on big price hikes. Companies surveyed by Wolfe Research in the second quarter expected truckload and LTL rates to rise 1.6 percent in 2013 — far lower than carriers say is needed to recover capital costs and reinvest in their businesses. The largest LTL carriers signaled their intent to raise pricing through general rate increases of 4.5 to 5.9 percent on average in June. At this point, a large-scale capacity crunch looks very unlikely. Expectations for a stronger second half were tamped down at the conference. Economist Donald Ratajczak forecast second quarter GDP growth of about 1.8 percent, with GDP growth rising above 3 percent by the fourth quarter. The private sector economy “is doing reasonably well,” Ratajczak said, despite weak consumer purchasing power. Consumers, like trucking companies, are replacing durable assets, but not buying additional ones. “The trucking industry is improving faster than the economy, but from a weaker base,” Ratajczak said. “They’re still a long way from where they need to be.” Contact William B. Cassidy at wcassidy@joc.com and follow him at www.twitter.com/wbcassidy_joc .

Truck Rates to Rise, But How High?

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">The disruptions in the Howard Street Tunnel in Baltimore and Blue Ridge subdivision on the Tennessee-North Carolina border resulted in longer transits for intermodal shippers on CSX this year. </div>

The disruptions in the Howard Street Tunnel in Baltimore and Blue Ridge subdivision on the Tennessee-North Carolina border resulted in longer transits for intermodal shippers on CSX this year.

Feature image

<div class="phx-topic">The restart of CSX Transportation services through the Howard Street Tunnel on Friday put the railroad back on track to offer double-stack container services to and from Baltimore by the second quarter of next year. The nearly $500 million project still requires work on two bridges before trains can carry containers stacked two high along the Interstate 95 corridor and between the Port of Baltimore and the Midwest. But reopening the tunnel removes the chokepoint that had <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/csx-q1-service-metrics-take-hit-amid-storm-recovery-tunnel-project-5978828">slowed freight flows</a> since its closure on Feb. 1. “The tunnel opens up for us options all the way from the Southeast to the Northeast and across to Chicago,” CSX CEO Joe Hinrichs, told the Journal of Commerce. “Double-stacking opens up between 75,000 and 125,000 new container opportunities once everything is finished.” The official reopening of the Howard Street Tunnel ends a turbulent nine-month stretch for CSX. During the closure, its East Coast network was effectively cut in half. Trains from the Northeast stopped at the Port of Baltimore, then truckers drayed containers across the city to the Curtis Bay terminal where new trains were constructed to the Southeast. Trains from the Southeast did the reverse to access the Northeast. The reopened Howard Street Tunnel should immediately eliminate 24 hours from transit times, CSX said. It also marks the end of a four-year construction project to raise the vertical clearance in tunnel built in the 1890s. <h3>New possibilities </h3>Through its double-stack service, CSX will be better positioned to compete with trucking and rival Norfolk Southern Railway between Atlanta and key Northeast markets like Harrisburg (Chambersburg), Pennsylvania; Philadelphia; and Newark, New Jersey, three high-volume freight lanes. The completion of the project opens an opportunity for CSX to collaborate with BNSF Railway via a joint-line service from Southern California to Philadelphia and Newark, like it has done to Atlanta for nearly two decades and recently expanded to <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/bnsf-csx-unveil-new-joint-intermodal-lanes-in-aftermath-of-up-ns-merger-6067789">Charlotte and Jacksonville</a>. It also opens the possibility for BNSF and CSX to create a joint single-line service from Southern California to Philadelphia and Newark in the future. Opening a double-stack option through Baltimore would allow BNSF and CSX to avoid routing cargo through upstate New York, making the service viable even in winter months. International intermodal service from the Port of Baltimore will also become more competitive with the Port of New York and New Jersey and Port of Virginia, which already offer double-stack service. Because Baltimore is farther inland than neighboring ports, the transit times to Chicago and the Ohio Valley are shorter. “It’s hard to imagine that this tunnel could be such a chokepoint,” Sen. Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.) told the Journal of Commerce Friday. “It’s been constricting the amount of cargo that we can bring out of the Port of Baltimore, but now we can double the throughput 160,000 containers annually and that’s important for us to compete in international trade.” On Thursday, CSX also reopened the Blue Ridge subdivision on the Tennessee-North Carolina border, which was significantly damaged during Hurricane Helene in September 2024. The first coal train moved through the region ahead of a ceremony scheduled for Oct. 2. Since the hurricane, trains from Alabama, Florida and Georgia have been detoured to Nashville, Tennessee, before turning back east to the Carolinas. The Howard Street Tunnel and Blue Ridge subdivision shuttered two of CSX’s four north-south routes. CSX’s service <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/csx-q1-service-metrics-take-hit-amid-storm-recovery-tunnel-project-5978828">suffered in the first quarter</a> before the railroad implemented workarounds last spring. “We learned that if we focus, work together with our customers and our internal team, we can get around these obstacles and still deliver a strong service product,” Hinrichs said. “Now that we open these routes back up, it gives us even more fluidity to our network, and it unleashes us to even run better.” Contact Ari Ashe at <a href="mailto:ari.ashe@spglobal.com">ari.ashe@spglobal.com</a>. </div>

The restart of CSX Transportation services through the Howard Street Tunnel on Friday put the railroad back on track to offer double-stack container services to and from Baltimore by the second quarter of next year. The nearly $500 million project still requires work on two bridges before trains can carry containers stacked two high along the Interstate 95 corridor and between the Port of Baltimore and the Midwest. But reopening the tunnel removes the chokepoint that had slowed freight flows since its closure on Feb. 1. “The tunnel opens up for us options all the way from the Southeast to the Northeast and across to Chicago,” CSX CEO Joe Hinrichs, told the Journal of Commerce. “Double-stacking opens up between 75,000 and 125,000 new container opportunities once everything is finished.” The official reopening of the Howard Street Tunnel ends a turbulent nine-month stretch for CSX. During the closure, its East Coast network was effectively cut in half. Trains from the Northeast stopped at the Port of Baltimore, then truckers drayed containers across the city to the Curtis Bay terminal where new trains were constructed to the Southeast. Trains from the Southeast did the reverse to access the Northeast. The reopened Howard Street Tunnel should immediately eliminate 24 hours from transit times, CSX said. It also marks the end of a four-year construction project to raise the vertical clearance in tunnel built in the 1890s. New possibilities Through its double-stack service, CSX will be better positioned to compete with trucking and rival Norfolk Southern Railway between Atlanta and key Northeast markets like Harrisburg (Chambersburg), Pennsylvania; Philadelphia; and Newark, New Jersey, three high-volume freight lanes. The completion of the project opens an opportunity for CSX to collaborate with BNSF Railway via a joint-line service from Southern California to Philadelphia and Newark, like it has done to Atlanta for nearly two decades and recently expanded to Charlotte and Jacksonville . It also opens the possibility for BNSF and CSX to create a joint single-line service from Southern California to Philadelphia and Newark in the future. Opening a double-stack option through Baltimore would allow BNSF and CSX to avoid routing cargo through upstate New York, making the service viable even in winter months. International intermodal service from the Port of Baltimore will also become more competitive with the Port of New York and New Jersey and Port of Virginia, which already offer double-stack service. Because Baltimore is farther inland than neighboring ports, the transit times to Chicago and the Ohio Valley are shorter. “It’s hard to imagine that this tunnel could be such a chokepoint,” Sen. Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.) told the Journal of Commerce Friday. “It’s been constricting the amount of cargo that we can bring out of the Port of Baltimore, but now we can double the throughput 160,000 containers annually and that’s important for us to compete in international trade.” On Thursday, CSX also reopened the Blue Ridge subdivision on the Tennessee-North Carolina border, which was significantly damaged during Hurricane Helene in September 2024. The first coal train moved through the region ahead of a ceremony scheduled for Oct. 2. Since the hurricane, trains from Alabama, Florida and Georgia have been detoured to Nashville, Tennessee, before turning back east to the Carolinas. The Howard Street Tunnel and Blue Ridge subdivision shuttered two of CSX’s four north-south routes. CSX’s service suffered in the first quarter before the railroad implemented workarounds last spring. “We learned that if we focus, work together with our customers and our internal team, we can get around these obstacles and still deliver a strong service product,” Hinrichs said. “Now that we open these routes back up, it gives us even more fluidity to our network, and it unleashes us to even run better.” Contact Ari Ashe at ari.ashe@spglobal.com .

Rail News

North-American rail

Surface

CSX restarts Baltimore tunnel service for double-stack in 2026

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">The Gulf Coast port faced the potential that later US actions against Chinese ship-to-shore cranes would raise costs more if it deferred delivery. </div>

The Gulf Coast port faced the potential that later US actions against Chinese ship-to-shore cranes would raise costs more if it deferred delivery.

<div class="phx-topic">Port Freeport is taking direct delivery of two Chinese-made ship-to-shore cranes, determining that the cost of the current US tariffs against China outweigh the risk of further punitive tariffs against that country’s maritime industry. Port Freeport said in a statement to the Journal of Commerce that it plans to install and commission two new super-Post-Panamax cranes manufactured by China’s ZPMC before the end of the calendar year. The cranes arrived the port this week, were entered into US Customs, and the “applicable tariff has been paid.”<a href="https://www.joc.com/article/ports-america-to-pay-30-tariff-on-china-made-ship-to-shore-crane-6080582">Chinese cranes are subject to a 30% import duty</a>that is the result of an August trade truce between the US and China, with the Trump Administration agreeing to that baseline tariff before the Nov. 10 deadline for new trade deal. Port Freeport will face a $7.5 million bill at the current tariff rate. The cranes are arriving as Freeport prepares for a deepening project that will bring its ship channel down to 56 feet from 51 feet. Port Freeport prepared to put the cranes into a bonded warehouse to defer any import duties, according to meeting minutes of Port Freeport’s commission. That would give the port time for US-China trade negotiations to take place or the US Supreme Court to rule that Trump’s tariffs were illegal. However, commission staff said the port faced the risk of an additional tariff up to 100% from the US Trade Representative’s (USTR) proposed action against Chinese crane makers. While the USTR has not made a final decision on the proposed action, commission staff said they understand a decision is coming in October. Port Freeport was among those that <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/ports-look-to-delay-proposed-us-tariffs-on-chinese-made-cranes-6007628">provided feedback to the USTR</a> about its proposal, saying in May that it would face a $25 million USTR tariff bill on cranes ordered in Nov. 2023. “Port Freeport and other U.S. seaports with cranes under contract are in an untenable situation,” according to its written. ”If the cranes are put in customs bonded warehouse status, it’s unlikely that tariffs will go lower than 30%; however, there is a greater risk the rates could go higher,” commission staff said. Contact Michael Angell at <a href="mailto: michael.angell@spglobal.com">michael.angell@spglobal.com</a> </div>

Port Freeport is taking direct delivery of two Chinese-made ship-to-shore cranes, determining that the cost of the current US tariffs against China outweigh the risk of further punitive tariffs against that country’s maritime industry. Port Freeport said in a statement to the Journal of Commerce that it plans to install and commission two new super-Post-Panamax cranes manufactured by China’s ZPMC before the end of the calendar year. The cranes arrived the port this week, were entered into US Customs, and the “applicable tariff has been paid.” Chinese cranes are subject to a 30% import duty that is the result of an August trade truce between the US and China, with the Trump Administration agreeing to that baseline tariff before the Nov. 10 deadline for new trade deal. Port Freeport will face a $7.5 million bill at the current tariff rate. The cranes are arriving as Freeport prepares for a deepening project that will bring its ship channel down to 56 feet from 51 feet. Port Freeport prepared to put the cranes into a bonded warehouse to defer any import duties, according to meeting minutes of Port Freeport’s commission. That would give the port time for US-China trade negotiations to take place or the US Supreme Court to rule that Trump’s tariffs were illegal. However, commission staff said the port faced the risk of an additional tariff up to 100% from the US Trade Representative’s (USTR) proposed action against Chinese crane makers. While the USTR has not made a final decision on the proposed action, commission staff said they understand a decision is coming in October. Port Freeport was among those that provided feedback to the USTR about its proposal, saying in May that it would face a $25 million USTR tariff bill on cranes ordered in Nov. 2023. “Port Freeport and other U.S. seaports with cranes under contract are in an untenable situation,” according to its written. ”If the cranes are put in customs bonded warehouse status, it’s unlikely that tariffs will go lower than 30%; however, there is a greater risk the rates could go higher,” commission staff said. Contact Michael Angell at michael.angell@spglobal.com

Transport, Trade and Regulation News

Port infrastructure

Marine terminals

North American ports

Freeport pays crane tariffs to avoid USTR fee risk

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">A wave of new mining projects to support domestic demand for critical minerals is expected to drive roll-on/roll-off cargo demand.</div>

A wave of new mining projects to support domestic demand for critical minerals is expected to drive roll-on/roll-off cargo demand.

<div class="phx-topic">President Donald Trump’s executive order accelerates permitting and investment in the mining of critical minerals and provides the breakbulk and project-cargo sectors a shot in the arm. In March, Trump signed an executive order to increase domestic minerals production as a national security priority. The order is part of the administration’s overall efforts to reduce US dependence on overseas minerals suppliers — and particularly from China, the world’s dominant exporter of critical minerals. Since April, the Trump administration has added 25 mineral projects to a federal fast-track permitting list. One of those projects took a major step forward on Sept. 19, when the US Forest Service gave mining company Perpetua Resources the green light to move ahead with its Stibnite Gold Project in central Idaho following over eight years of permitting reviews. The project involves redeveloping an abandoned mine in the Stibnite mining district to extract gold and other materials. Among those materials contained in the mine is the raw ore of antimony sulfide, a key component of nearly 30% of military ammunition items, according to the US Army. Once operations resume, the site would become the only domestically mined source of antimony. Construction to redevelop the mine is on track to begin this fall, pending the finalization of bonding with state and federal regulators. <h3>Copper added to critical list </h3>The US government defines critical minerals as resources considered essential to the US economy and national security. There are 130 minerals named to government lists, with aluminum, cobalt and nickel identified among the most critical. But Trump’s executive order expanded the definition to include elements such as copper, which is essential to electrification and batteries. On Aug. 26 — nearly a month after Trump imposed a 50% tariff on semi-finished and derivative copper products imported into the United States — the US Geological Survey formally added copper to a draft of its 2025 US Critical Minerals List, which guides federal strategy, investment and permitting decisions for securing critical minerals. One US copper project moving closer to construction is the Copperwood mine under development in Michigan by a subsidiary of Highland Copper Company Inc. of Canada. On Sept. 16, Highland Copper announced that the Export-Import Bank of the United States (EXIM) — the federal government’s export credit agency — issued a non-binding letter of interest to provide financing for up to $250 million of the estimated $400 million required to build and commission the mine. Copperwood is one of the few fully permitted copper projects in the US, and Highland Copper is advancing detailed engineering to set up the project for a near-term construction decision. The proposed funding is part of the Trump administration’s Make More in America initiative to develop domestic supply chains for critical minerals, and it could also be eligible under EXIM’s China and Transformational Exports Program to give US exporters a competitive edge over China. Contact Autumn Cafiero Giusti at <a href="mailto:autumn@autumngiusti.com">autumn@autumngiusti.com</a>. </div>

President Donald Trump’s executive order accelerates permitting and investment in the mining of critical minerals and provides the breakbulk and project-cargo sectors a shot in the arm. In March, Trump signed an executive order to increase domestic minerals production as a national security priority. The order is part of the administration’s overall efforts to reduce US dependence on overseas minerals suppliers — and particularly from China, the world’s dominant exporter of critical minerals. Since April, the Trump administration has added 25 mineral projects to a federal fast-track permitting list. One of those projects took a major step forward on Sept. 19, when the US Forest Service gave mining company Perpetua Resources the green light to move ahead with its Stibnite Gold Project in central Idaho following over eight years of permitting reviews. The project involves redeveloping an abandoned mine in the Stibnite mining district to extract gold and other materials. Among those materials contained in the mine is the raw ore of antimony sulfide, a key component of nearly 30% of military ammunition items, according to the US Army. Once operations resume, the site would become the only domestically mined source of antimony. Construction to redevelop the mine is on track to begin this fall, pending the finalization of bonding with state and federal regulators. Copper added to critical list The US government defines critical minerals as resources considered essential to the US economy and national security. There are 130 minerals named to government lists, with aluminum, cobalt and nickel identified among the most critical. But Trump’s executive order expanded the definition to include elements such as copper, which is essential to electrification and batteries. On Aug. 26 — nearly a month after Trump imposed a 50% tariff on semi-finished and derivative copper products imported into the United States — the US Geological Survey formally added copper to a draft of its 2025 US Critical Minerals List, which guides federal strategy, investment and permitting decisions for securing critical minerals. One US copper project moving closer to construction is the Copperwood mine under development in Michigan by a subsidiary of Highland Copper Company Inc. of Canada. On Sept. 16, Highland Copper announced that the Export-Import Bank of the United States (EXIM) — the federal government’s export credit agency — issued a non-binding letter of interest to provide financing for up to $250 million of the estimated $400 million required to build and commission the mine. Copperwood is one of the few fully permitted copper projects in the US, and Highland Copper is advancing detailed engineering to set up the project for a near-term construction decision. The proposed funding is part of the Trump administration’s Make More in America initiative to develop domestic supply chains for critical minerals, and it could also be eligible under EXIM’s China and Transformational Exports Program to give US exporters a competitive edge over China. Contact Autumn Cafiero Giusti at autumn@autumngiusti.com .

Project cargo

Breakbulk News

Trump order to speed up mining projects offers breakbulk growth

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">The jump in blank sailings comes as spot rates to the West Coast have fallen 30% over the past three weeks, with East Coast prices down almost 20%.</div>

The jump in blank sailings comes as spot rates to the West Coast have fallen 30% over the past three weeks, with East Coast prices down almost 20%.

<div class="phx-topic">Trans-Pacific container lines will accelerate blank sailings over the next four weeks in an effort to stabilize spot rates that are continuing to fall amid an unusually soft pre-Golden Week market. The reduction in planned capacity for October has increased from 3.8% to 13.6% on the Asia-North America West Coast trade and from 4.8% to 14.4% on the Asia to East Coast lane, Alan Murphy, CEO of Sea-Intelligence Maritime Analysis, said in this week’s Sunday Spotlight newsletter. That comes as spot rates to the West Coast have fallen 30% over the past three weeks, with East Coast prices down almost 20%. “The blanks won’t increase the [spot] rates, they will just prevent a further freefall, and with all of the announced blank sailings, there will probably be some ad hoc blank sailings that haven’t been announced yet,” Sanjay Tejwani, CEO of consulting firm 365 Logistics, told the Journal of Commerce. “We could still see more action.” When compared with capacity reductions in recent years, “the current level of capacity reductions have fully met that threshold on Asia-North America East Coast ... while partially meeting that threshold on Asia-North America West Coast,” Murphy said. Almost 17% of capacity from Asia into North America will be blanked in October, up from about 10% in September, according to maritime intelligence provider eeSea. Spot rates from Asia to the West Coast had fallen to $1,400 per FEU as of Sept. 24, down from $2,025 on Sept. 5, according to Platts, a sister company of the Journal of Commerce within S&amp;P Global. East Coast rates of $2,433 per FEU are down from $3,000 on Sept. 5. <div class="wrapper-narrow"><dynamic-object type="jocchartid" resource-id="e8c13a3e-9f5a-412f-8741-adbf5e1a7779"></dynamic-object></div>Forwarders this week said some larger carriers have already begun to undercut those rates. One forwarder told the Journal of Commerce some larger lines are offering $1,350 per FEU to the West Coast and sub-$2,400 per FEU to the East Coast. “Are we getting near the bottom? I would think so,” the source said, adding those rates have been extended through Oct. 14. “How much lower can they go? They’ve been going down on almost a daily basis,” said Chris Sur, executive vice president of ocean freight logistics at Unique Logistics International. A carrier executive said some of the smaller lines are also contributing to the falling spot rates by offering sub-$1,400 rates to the West Coast. “They want to grab what cargo they can,” the source said. <h3>Further capacity reductions in Q4? </h3>Amid the current capacity reductions, Tejwani said the global idle fleet may begin to increase in the fourth quarter “now that there won’t be much demand for the next three to four months.” Forwarders and carriers anticipate a soft fourth quarter because the frontloading of peak season cargo prevented what is normally a busy September–October period in the trans-Pacific. Also, because Lunar New Year falls on Feb. 17, 2026, retailers are expected to shorten their inventory carrying period by waiting until January to ship their spring merchandise. “[Carriers] continue to pull capacity out of this market and it won’t be brought back into service,” Tejwani said. The idle fleet is just 0.5% of total liner capacity, according to a Sept. 1 report from the maritime intelligence company AXS Marine, which owns Alphaliner. Midsize retailers have access now to spot rates that are lower than the fixed rates they signed for in their 2025–26 service contracts in May. The service contract rates for midsize shippers <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/ocean-carriers-flex-tonnage-control-but-overcapacity-is-mounting-6030004">approached $2,000 per FEU to the West Coast</a> and about $1,000 per FEU higher to the East Coast. The breakeven rate in terms of covering carriers’ fixed costs varies from carrier to carrier based on their operating efficiency and the size of the vessels they deploy, but at the current spot rate levels, some lines may not be covering their fixed costs. “At $1,350, some may already be there,” said the forwarder source. Sur said how carriers respond to the Golden Week factory closures in Asia will be crucial in their attempt to find a bottom for spot rates. “I think [spot rates] have gone low enough,” he said. Contact Bill Mongelluzzo at <a href="mailto:bill.mongelluzzo@spglobal.com">bill.mongelluzzo@spglobal.com</a>. Contact Laura Robb at <a href="mailto:laura.robb@spglobal.com">laura.robb@spglobal.com</a>. </div>

Trans-Pacific container lines will accelerate blank sailings over the next four weeks in an effort to stabilize spot rates that are continuing to fall amid an unusually soft pre-Golden Week market. The reduction in planned capacity for October has increased from 3.8% to 13.6% on the Asia-North America West Coast trade and from 4.8% to 14.4% on the Asia to East Coast lane, Alan Murphy, CEO of Sea-Intelligence Maritime Analysis, said in this week’s Sunday Spotlight newsletter. That comes as spot rates to the West Coast have fallen 30% over the past three weeks, with East Coast prices down almost 20%. “The blanks won’t increase the [spot] rates, they will just prevent a further freefall, and with all of the announced blank sailings, there will probably be some ad hoc blank sailings that haven’t been announced yet,” Sanjay Tejwani, CEO of consulting firm 365 Logistics, told the Journal of Commerce. “We could still see more action.” When compared with capacity reductions in recent years, “the current level of capacity reductions have fully met that threshold on Asia-North America East Coast ... while partially meeting that threshold on Asia-North America West Coast,” Murphy said. Almost 17% of capacity from Asia into North America will be blanked in October, up from about 10% in September, according to maritime intelligence provider eeSea. Spot rates from Asia to the West Coast had fallen to $1,400 per FEU as of Sept. 24, down from $2,025 on Sept. 5, according to Platts, a sister company of the Journal of Commerce within S&P Global. East Coast rates of $2,433 per FEU are down from $3,000 on Sept. 5. Forwarders this week said some larger carriers have already begun to undercut those rates. One forwarder told the Journal of Commerce some larger lines are offering $1,350 per FEU to the West Coast and sub-$2,400 per FEU to the East Coast. “Are we getting near the bottom? I would think so,” the source said, adding those rates have been extended through Oct. 14. “How much lower can they go? They’ve been going down on almost a daily basis,” said Chris Sur, executive vice president of ocean freight logistics at Unique Logistics International. A carrier executive said some of the smaller lines are also contributing to the falling spot rates by offering sub-$1,400 rates to the West Coast. “They want to grab what cargo they can,” the source said. Further capacity reductions in Q4? Amid the current capacity reductions, Tejwani said the global idle fleet may begin to increase in the fourth quarter “now that there won’t be much demand for the next three to four months.” Forwarders and carriers anticipate a soft fourth quarter because the frontloading of peak season cargo prevented what is normally a busy September–October period in the trans-Pacific. Also, because Lunar New Year falls on Feb. 17, 2026, retailers are expected to shorten their inventory carrying period by waiting until January to ship their spring merchandise. “[Carriers] continue to pull capacity out of this market and it won’t be brought back into service,” Tejwani said. The idle fleet is just 0.5% of total liner capacity, according to a Sept. 1 report from the maritime intelligence company AXS Marine, which owns Alphaliner. Midsize retailers have access now to spot rates that are lower than the fixed rates they signed for in their 2025–26 service contracts in May. The service contract rates for midsize shippers approached $2,000 per FEU to the West Coast and about $1,000 per FEU higher to the East Coast. The breakeven rate in terms of covering carriers’ fixed costs varies from carrier to carrier based on their operating efficiency and the size of the vessels they deploy, but at the current spot rate levels, some lines may not be covering their fixed costs. “At $1,350, some may already be there,” said the forwarder source. Sur said how carriers respond to the Golden Week factory closures in Asia will be crucial in their attempt to find a bottom for spot rates. “I think [spot rates] have gone low enough,” he said. Contact Bill Mongelluzzo at bill.mongelluzzo@spglobal.com . Contact Laura Robb at laura.robb@spglobal.com .

Trans-Pacific

Container Shipping News

Maritime

Trans-Pacific capacity cuts on the rise as carriers look to stem rate slide

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">Progress for wind projects in the UK and Taiwan has bucked the trend of an expected drop in offshore wind turbine generator awards this year. </div>

Progress for wind projects in the UK and Taiwan has bucked the trend of an expected drop in offshore wind turbine generator awards this year.

<div class="phx-topic">Two European offshore wind contractors are moving forward with key projects in the UK and Taiwan, the companies announced Thursday, delivering a project cargo pipeline for specialist carriers. Belgian’s DEME said it had been awarded a contract for the transport and installation of 35 foundations for the 495-megawatt (MW) Formosa 4 offshore wind farm in Taiwan being developed by a consortium including Taiwan-based Synera Renewable Energy. The contract was awarded to DEME’s Taiwanese joint venture CDWE and will involve the deployment of several vessels from its fleet, including the 61,000-deadweight metric ton (dwt) offshore installation vessel Green Jade and a rock placement vessel. The contract also involves development of an offshore electricity substation and scour protection works. Copenhagen-headquartered vessel operator Cadeler was awarded a contract worth about $90 million last month forthe transportation and installation of the 35 Siemens Gamesa 14-MW wind turbines for the Formosa 4 project. The wind farm covers 22 square miles about 13 miles off the coast of northwest Taiwan. DEME said foundation installation work is expected to begin in the first half of 2027, while Cadeler said its transportation contract is set to start in March 2028. <h3>Ship delivery supports North Sea buildout </h3>Separately, Cadeler confirmed the delivery of the Wind Ally that will be deployed to install foundations at Ørsted’s $11 billion, 2.9-gigawatt Hornsea 3 offshore wind farm in the British sector of the North Sea. The ship is the first of Cadeler’s three “A”-class wind turbine installation vessels ordered from Chinese shipyard Cosco (Qidong) Offshore Company. The second ship, Wind Ace, is scheduled for delivery in the second half of 2026, while Wind Apex will follow by mid-2027. By that time, Cadeler will operate a 12-vessel fleet, the largest in the offshore wind industry, the company said in a statement. The ships will have a deck space of more than 60,000 square feet, a payload exceeding 18,000 tons and a main crane capable of lifting more than 3,300 tons. The announcements were made as offshore wind turbine generator awards this year are set to drop to the lowest level since at least 2022, according to the latest data from RigLogix, part of the Westwood Global Energy Group. About 250 awards have been made so far in 2025, the energy consultancy said in its September offshore energy report, with about 300 forecast for the full year. But the sector is expected to bounce back next year with 1,200 awards projected, of which 67% will be in Western Europe and 28% in Asia, excluding China, RigLogix said. Contact Keith Wallis at <a href="mailto:keithwallis@hotmail.com">keithwallis@hotmail.com</a>. </div>

Two European offshore wind contractors are moving forward with key projects in the UK and Taiwan, the companies announced Thursday, delivering a project cargo pipeline for specialist carriers. Belgian’s DEME said it had been awarded a contract for the transport and installation of 35 foundations for the 495-megawatt (MW) Formosa 4 offshore wind farm in Taiwan being developed by a consortium including Taiwan-based Synera Renewable Energy. The contract was awarded to DEME’s Taiwanese joint venture CDWE and will involve the deployment of several vessels from its fleet, including the 61,000-deadweight metric ton (dwt) offshore installation vessel Green Jade and a rock placement vessel. The contract also involves development of an offshore electricity substation and scour protection works. Copenhagen-headquartered vessel operator Cadeler was awarded a contract worth about $90 million last month forthe transportation and installation of the 35 Siemens Gamesa 14-MW wind turbines for the Formosa 4 project. The wind farm covers 22 square miles about 13 miles off the coast of northwest Taiwan. DEME said foundation installation work is expected to begin in the first half of 2027, while Cadeler said its transportation contract is set to start in March 2028. Ship delivery supports North Sea buildout Separately, Cadeler confirmed the delivery of the Wind Ally that will be deployed to install foundations at Ørsted’s $11 billion, 2.9-gigawatt Hornsea 3 offshore wind farm in the British sector of the North Sea. The ship is the first of Cadeler’s three “A”-class wind turbine installation vessels ordered from Chinese shipyard Cosco (Qidong) Offshore Company. The second ship, Wind Ace, is scheduled for delivery in the second half of 2026, while Wind Apex will follow by mid-2027. By that time, Cadeler will operate a 12-vessel fleet, the largest in the offshore wind industry, the company said in a statement. The ships will have a deck space of more than 60,000 square feet, a payload exceeding 18,000 tons and a main crane capable of lifting more than 3,300 tons. The announcements were made as offshore wind turbine generator awards this year are set to drop to the lowest level since at least 2022, according to the latest data from RigLogix, part of the Westwood Global Energy Group. About 250 awards have been made so far in 2025, the energy consultancy said in its September offshore energy report, with about 300 forecast for the full year. But the sector is expected to bounce back next year with 1,200 awards projected, of which 67% will be in Western Europe and 28% in Asia, excluding China, RigLogix said. Contact Keith Wallis at keithwallis@hotmail.com .

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In today’s competitive logistical landscape, efficiency is an absolute necessity for smooth operations. Yet, in the barge sector, many operators still rely on fragmented systems, delayed updates, and manual tracking methods that slow decision-making and increase operational risk. OpenTug’s new eBook, How Enhanced Visibility Transforms Barge Operations, reveals how unified, real-time data can become your competitive advantage leading to improved voyage management and more actionable insights. Drawing on industry best practices and real-world examples, it explores how operational transparency empowers teams to: ●	Reduce delays with accurate ETAs and proactive scheduling decisions ●	Improve asset utilization by identifying underused equipment and optimizing cargos ●	Strengthen safety and compliance through consistent, accessible documentation and reporting ●	Boost customer satisfaction with transparent status updates and faster response time You’ll learn how visibility can connect every part of your operation into a single, actionable view. The ability to see and act on real-time information transforms the way you plan, execute, and deliver. From managing a small regional fleet to running a large, national operation, this eBook will help you understand the measurable benefits of enhanced visibility and how technology like BargeOS is transforming the way barge logistics is managed. Get your copy today and see how clear insights lead to stronger performance, smarter decisions, and more profitable operations. <a href="https://9315820.fs1.hubspotusercontent-na1.net/hubfs/9315820/eBook/Nav-theFuture-AJW-08.19.25.pdf" rel="noreferrer" class="joc_admin__link">Click here</a><span class="joc_admin__inline-image joc_admin__inline-image-aspect-ratio-16_9 joc_admin__inline-image-position-left joc_admin__inline-image-size-small" data-figure-size="small" data-figure-position="left" data-figure-aspect-ratio="16:9"><img src="/content-assets/1756152344211_Opentug%20logo.png" alt="" class="joc_admin__inline-image-inherit">

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Transform Barge Operations with Total Visibility

At SSA Marine Mexico, we firmly believe that business development must go hand in hand with social and environmental well-being. Our vision is not solely focused on operating efficiently, but also on creating a meaningful and positive impact in the communities where we are present. Since 1995, we have reaffirmed this commitment through tangible actions that reflect our core values of responsibility, solidarity, and sustainability. <span class="joc_admin__inline-image joc_admin__inline-image-aspect-ratio-3_2 joc_admin__inline-image-position-left joc_admin__inline-image-size-medium" data-figure-size="medium" data-figure-position="left" data-figure-aspect-ratio="3:2"><img src="/content-assets/1752584535914_Photo%201.jpg" alt="" class="joc_admin__inline-image-inherit"> A Year of Major Achievements Over the past year, we allocated more than $107,000 USD to the implementation of 60 social and environmental projects, positively impacting over 7,800 people across various regions of Mexico. Each initiative was designed with a holistic approach, addressing key areas that contribute to long-term community development. Education: Laying the Foundation for the Future Education is one of the most powerful tools to promote social mobility and equitable development. At SSA Marine Mexico, we support academic initiatives that inspire and empower the next generation of leaders. One of our most impactful partnerships was with the University of Colima, where we sponsored the “Reto Camp” program. This initiative encourages university students to develop innovative solutions in the fields of sustainability, logistics, and port operations, offering them mentorship, tools, and real-world challenges to solve. In addition, we donated microscopes, school supplies, and educational materials to institutions in underserved communities, helping to improve the learning environment and provide students with the resources they need to succeed. Health and Sports: Promoting Wellness We believe that healthy communities are strong communities. We have supported several local sporting events and provided direct assistance to talented athletes, enabling them to pursue their passions and represent their regions with pride. Beyond sports, we also strengthened our collaboration with critical emergency response organizations such as the Mexican Red Cross and Civil Protection. Our contributions helped enhance their readiness and capabilities in times of crisis, ensuring better outcomes for those affected by emergencies. Supporting Vulnerable Groups: Reaching Those Who Need It Most A core part of our social responsibility efforts is directed toward supporting vulnerable populations. We have contributed to a range of initiatives focused on children, migrants, and at-risk families. These efforts included donations to orphanages and shelters, as well as support for the National Institute of Migration and grassroots organizations dedicated to protecting and empowering people facing adversity. By standing with those in need, we reinforce our commitment to inclusion and social justice, values that are central to our identity as a responsible company. <span class="joc_admin__inline-image joc_admin__inline-image-aspect-ratio-3_2 joc_admin__inline-image-position-left joc_admin__inline-image-size-medium" data-figure-size="medium" data-figure-position="left" data-figure-aspect-ratio="3:2"><img src="/content-assets/1752584944645_Photo%202.png" alt="" class="joc_admin__inline-image-inherit">Culture: Strengthening Community Identity Cultural identity is a key element in building resilient and united communities. At SSA Marine Mexico, we actively participate in the organization and sponsorship of cultural events that celebrate local traditions and foster civic pride. Working alongside port authorities and municipal governments, we helped bring music, art, and heritage to the forefront, creating spaces for community engagement and intercultural dialogue. Environment: Investing in the Planet Our commitment to sustainability goes beyond operations—it’s a philosophy that drives every decision we make. We have partnered with environmental institutions to carry out reforestation campaigns, beach cleanups, and conservation efforts. In collaboration with the Institute for the Environment, we supported initiatives aimed at decarbonization, biodiversity protection, and environmental education. By involving our employees and local volunteers in these actions, we also foster a culture of environmental stewardship throughout our organization and our surrounding communities. Innovation for a Sustainable Future Sustainability is not just about doing good—it’s also about doing things better. In 2024, we invested $22 million USD in the acquisition of 11 state-of-the-art E-RTG cranes. These electric rubber-tired gantry cranes represent a significant technological advancement in port equipment. Seven of them are already operating on clean electric energy, resulting in a reduction of nearly 4,000 tons of CO₂ emissions and improving operational efficiency by 7%. The remaining four cranes are fully compatible with future electrification, underscoring our long-term strategy to modernize our operations in an environmentally responsible way. This investment is part of a broader innovation roadmap that includes digitalization, automation, and cleaner energy sources—all designed to ensure that our ports continue to grow without compromising the health of our planet. Building a Better Tomorrow, Together At SSA Marine Mexico, we understand that sustainability is a shared and ongoing responsibility. True impact requires collaboration across sectors, long-term vision, and unwavering commitment. That is why we continue to work hand-in-hand with local authorities, non-profit organizations, universities, and our own employees to create solutions that are both scalable and sustainable. Our journey is far from over. In the years ahead, we will continue to deepen our community engagement, explore cleaner technologies, and strengthen the social fabric of the regions where we operate. Each initiative, no matter the size, is a step toward building a future where business success goes hand-in-hand with human and environmental prosperity. We are proud of what we have achieved in 2024, but we are even more excited about what lies ahead. SSA Marine Mexico — Moving the World, Caring for People and Planet. LINK: <a href="https://www.ssamarine.mx/" rel="noreferrer" class="joc_admin__link">https://www.ssamarine.mx/</a>

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The world of LTL is slow to embrace change. Business anachronisms permeate current supply chain processes. These vestiges of the way things used to work define the LTL freight transportation procurement process of many modern shippers.David Knuth, logistics specialist at IEWC, a global supplier of cable and wire based in Wisconsin, is happy to have modernized the RFP process, automating the entire LTL bidding procedure with Bid$ense, SMC³’s automated truckload and LTL freight transportation sourcing solution. But when prompted, he can still recall what once was.In his previous job, a large part of his duties were consumed by creating an intermodal bid package for carriers. In a spreadsheet, Knuth detailed the company’s volumes lane by lane, taking care to delete any errant keystrokes or misleading data. He would then email out the information to each carrier, taking time to respond to detailed technical questions about the spreadsheet data. Finally, he had to compile all the results, create an algorithm that would compare the carriers on each lane, and award the business.“It was a huge undertaking. It took about four months to do,” Knuth said of the old process. “It was almost a full-time job for that part of the year, every year.”In his new job at IEWC, he sat down with Bid$ense on day one and was amazed at the capabilities. Knuth had never before used a bid tool. SMC³’s latest versions of Bid$ense automate the process even further, taking truckload and LTL RFPs entirely online. The tool draws on RFP best-practices protocols to streamline the bidding communication process, enabling bidding carriers to respond accurately and promptly to shipper requests. The solution also does all the distribution work automatically, electronically submitting shipper bid data to carriers based on their actual service capabilities and performance records. Carriers are alerted with timely prompts for RFP deliverables, so shippers aren’t waiting by the phone for responses.Another benefit of automating the process is the data-cleansing assistance. When Knuth sent spreadsheets to carriers, data errors might cloud the bidding process; he might have to resend data or simply accept a price that did not truly reflect the costs of doing business. Data cleansing is incredibly beneficial, he said.The spreadsheet technique also made bidding analysis an onerous task. Since Bid$ense automates and streamlines the entire RFP process, intensive examination is now simple. SMC³ knows that each bid has more than one best outcome. With uniform responses from each carrier, shippers can quickly rank results and create an unlimited quantity of what-if scenarios to make the optimal procurement decision.Jesse Burnett of Central Garden &amp; Pet experiences many of the same benefits. Founded in 1980, Central Garden &amp; Pet has spent the last three decades growing from a small garden supply company to a provider of a range of products from dog chews and bird seed to soil supplements and natural insecticides. For much of its life, the company shipped these disparate goods via LTL and truckload carriers to retailers throughout the country, relying on each business unit to negotiate directly with their freight transportation providers. This arrangement worked fairly well for a small company, but as Central Garden &amp; Pet expanded, leadership decided to consolidate decision making.Burnett helped centralize the transportation decision making in 2015 with SMC³’s Bid$ense. Before Bid$ense, every business unit operated independently as far as negotiating with carriers.“There were a lot of different things just floating around,” he said. “We didn’t have master agreements in place; no national pricing at all. The pricing from carriers was just all over the place, depending on where you were.”The transformations he saw with Bid$ense were immediate. Burnett has been using the tool about every other year since its implementation at the company. Central Garden and Pet’s $19.6 million 2019 LTL bid saved the company just more than 9 percent when compared to its historical average. For Burnett, though, bid automation extends far beyond savings.“We knew that we weren’t getting the best pricing offer from our carriers just because nothing was centralized,” he continued. “We knew that if we combined everything from all these business units and paired it with one corporate offering, then it would drive some cost benefit with it.”When the company initially decided to centralize bid procurement, executives researched a number of different methodologies and technologies. In the end, though, Burnett found that Bid$ense was both widespread and well known, and that his carrier partners already knew how to use the application. Burnett also highlighted the data-cleansing process as a major benefit, saying the rigorous process ensures that carriers always return the best price.“It definitely has helped drive savings,” he said. “Any time you go out there and you drive that competitiveness with the carriers and they know they’re in a bid environment, it seems to sharpen their pencils.”Transportation procurement is an integral part of the modern supply chain. With Bid$ense, shippers can develop a strategic implementation plan that saves them time and money, but also helps them create strong relationships with their carrier partners. These carriers appreciate the solution’s data-cleansing process; when carriers receive a complete shipment history and future volume forecast, they don’t have to guess on pricing. Carriers that receive more data from shippers get a complete picture of that shipper’s freight, allowing them to accurately plan instead of simply preparing for the worst-case scenario. Clean data presented through an automated system can lead to both bigger shipment savings and a lasting partnership between carrier and customer.Whether customers are looking to streamline over-the-road transportation bidding by automating the RFP process or create an entirely new, centralized sourcing process, Bid$ense has the analytical horsepower to get the job done.SMC³ 2020 Customer Case Study

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Shippers save money, time with automated transportation bidding tools

If there’s one immutable truth in the world of logistics, it’s this: LTL is an inherently complex form of transportation. Tariffs, rates, DIM weights, transit times — it’s enough to confuse even seasoned logistics professionals. The solution to this knowledge gap has historically been on-the-job training or university supply chain education, but for a variety of reasons there is now a pressing need for third-party, remote LTL training that prepares logistics workers for transportation success. Global Scope Can Overlook Local Intricacies In the past, professionals looking to move into a supply chain career learned about the basics of supply chain from universities. However, many of these college supply chain programs are now global in scope, focusing on worldwide supply chain management instead of the intricacies of specialized domestic transportation. And even these programs, which used to be widespread, are becoming less common. LTL is not an industry of broad-brush strokes; supply chain professionals really need a pointillistic understanding of the logistics of LTL in order to excel in the industry. Accelerating Need for Dedicated LTL Education This lack of specified training put the onus on employers to prepare new hires with the LTL knowledge needed to do their jobs. Dedicated LTL study is a necessity, not a luxury. At the same time, changes in LTL and the broader supply chain world are accelerating. The reliance on e-commerce has ballooned since the start of the pandemic, and last-mile LTL shipments and related e-commerce strains on the supply chain won’t diminish once social distancing abates. That genie isn’t going back into the bottle. So supply chain employers need logistics workers that are fully versed in all aspects of the industry, ready to solve unique shipping and delivery problems based on their extensive supply chain knowledge But why care about LTL? It’s been reported that some shippers in today’s world are no longer concerned with what mode is used to ship their goods. A Multimodal Approach Ensures On-Time Delivery This mode agnosticism means supply chain stakeholders have to be well versed in all modes of transportation. As unforeseen weather events and other disruptions, such as protests, become more common, savvy logistics employees will need to be armed with familiarity of all modes, not just the most popular, to ensure that freight is delivered on time, without damage, and in the most financially expedient way possible. Offerings like SMC³’s LTL online education courses cover a wide range of topics from LTL basics and operations to more advanced concepts like pricing analytics and transportation law. The company also has plans to continually refresh content, adding new expert presenters and taking the feedback of students to make the courses even better as time goes on. Learn more about&nbsp;<a href="https://logisticstrainingcenter.com/smc3-courses/" rel="noreferrer" class="joc_admin__link">SMC³’s LTL Online Education program</a>&nbsp;and view the 2021 hybrid schedule, featuring live industry experts,&nbsp;<a href="https://www.smc3.com/onlinelearning2021/" rel="noreferrer" class="joc_admin__link">here.</a>

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Filling the Supply Chain Education Gap with LTL Education Courses

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