<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">India appeared ready Thursday to sign a draft world trade accord after getting "clarifications and a</div>

India appeared ready Thursday to sign a draft world trade accord after getting "clarifications and a

<div>India appeared ready Thursday to sign a draft world trade accord after getting "clarifications and assurances" on areas of concern, including textiles and agriculture.The Indian position, a step forward from previous reluctance, was announced by Commerce Secretary Tejendra Khanna during a press conference called by Peter Sutherland, visiting director-general of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade.Mr. Sutherland said Indian leaders agreed the successful conclusion of the Uruguay Round of multilateral trade talks is vitally important for world trade. Those talks, under the aegis of the Swiss-based GATT, have been struggling for a conclusion since 1987.GATT acts as the world's...

India appeared ready Thursday to sign a draft world trade accord after getting "clarifications and assurances" on areas of concern, including textiles and agriculture. The Indian position, a step forward from previous reluctance, was announced by Commerce Secretary Tejendra Khanna during a press conference called by Peter Sutherland, visiting director-general of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade.Mr. Sutherland said Indian leaders agreed the successful conclusion of the Uruguay Round of multilateral trade talks is vitally important for world trade. Those talks, under the aegis of the Swiss-based GATT, have been struggling for a conclusion since 1987. GATT acts as the world's referee of merchandise trade and has given a Dec. 15 deadline for what's known as the Dunkel draft proposals, named after the previous director-general. Indian leaders had raised numerous questions about the draft. "It was reassuring to get clarifications," said Mr. Khanna. Mr. Sutherland told India significant progress could be made in improving access to the textile markets of developed countries through bilateral negotiations rather than by seeking changes in the draft. Mr. Khanna said the GATT chief offered to assist India in the process, even if there is no change to textile provisions in the Dunkel paper. World textile and garment trade is tightly governed by a system of bilateral quotas known as the Multi-Fibre Arrangement (MFA). It stipulates how much of a particular item a country can ship to developed countries, chief among them the United States and the 12 members of the European Community. Textiles is an important area for India, making up about 30 percent of its export basket. India had sought amendments to the Dunkel draft aimed at getting better access to textiles markets. It also sought quicker integration of textiles into the GATT framework proper, rather than having it under the restrictive MFA. India's stance was adopted by many other exporters. The other main areas of concern for India are agricultural subsidies, minimum access to its own markets and proposals on trade-related intellectual property rights, called Trips. On subsidies, Mr. Sutherland said there would be no obligation on India to reduce its payments further over the six-year period of implementation of GATT's new subsidy-reduction provisions, because India's level of subsidy is much lower than the 10 percent stated in the Dunkel draft. This question will be reopened for negotiation in the sixth year. Mr. Khanna said the U.S. delegation to the talks indicated that the United States would be sympathetic and may exclude countries like India from the purview of agricultural subsidy ceilings at that time. India also won't have to give minimum market access to farm products from other countries for six years because of its poor balance of payments position. A fresh agreement will be negotiated for the seventh year onward.

Maritime

INDIA EXPECTED TO SUPPORT DRAFT WORLD TRADE ACCORD

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">Polyethylene prices have roughly doubled since the end of February as Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz has cut off the region’s petrochemical plants from the rest of the world.</div>

Polyethylene prices have roughly doubled since the end of February as Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz has cut off the region’s petrochemical plants from the rest of the world.

Feature image

<div class="phx-topic">(The following story appears in the Top 100 Importers and Exporters issue of the Journal of Commerce magazine to be published May 4, 2026.) Following strong growth in 2025, US resins exports could see a repeat due to the global supply squeeze created by the war with Iran. But the degree of growth in 2026 will depend on how quickly new US supply can come online and whether surging resin prices will ultimately cause consumers to pull back. Outbound shipments of polyethylene and polypropylene, which account for over half of US chemicals exports, grew 10.7% to 1.23 million TEUs in 2025, according to PIERS, a sister product of the Journal of Commerce within S&amp;P Global. Last year’s growth was the strongest since 2023, when import container demand returned to normal and allowed more space for exporters. China last year again received the largest share of overall US chemicals exports for any single country, but at 11.2% it was down from 14.3% in 2024 and the lowest share since before the pandemic, PIERS data showed. Brazil was next at 8%, down marginally from the year prior. Terry Glass, vice president at commodities price reporting agency Argus, said new supply coming online last year fueled 2025 growth. Dow Chemical opened its latest resins production line at its Freeport, Texas, plant, capable of producing enough polyethylene for filling 26,000 20-foot containers per year. After its first production line was completed in 2022, Shell now has three production lines operating at its Monaca plant in Pennsylvania, Glass said. The plant, largely dependent on export markets, can turn out enough resins to fill about 31,000, 20-foot containers annually. The new supply lowered margins on resin, causing producers to lower plant utilization to around 80% toward the end of 2025, Glass said. Producers also typically decrease production ahead of planned maintenance, which generally takes place during the first quarter. However, war in the Middle East has scrambled that plan. Since the end of February, polyethylene prices have roughly doubled as Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz has cut off the region’s petrochemical plants from the rest of the world. Glass said North American plants are now running at 91% utilization and likely to defer maintenance due to the strong pricing. “Producers were starting to cut (output) through December and January because they were not getting enough incremental margin,” he said. “We’re forecasting another six months of elevated prices and elevated demand for the US producers.” <h3>War damage to energy infrastructure </h3>Ted Semesnyei, an associate director for S&amp;P Global, said the strong demand will play out in waves globally. Asia will be the first pinched by the cut in Mideast supply. While China has built up its own resin production to supply the region, it primarily uses crude oil from the Middle East as a feedstock. Chinese producers are starting to cut back because of high feedstock costs and are importing alternative feedstocks, which will also become more expensive over time. Europe has some buffer inventory, having built up resin stocks in anticipation of maintenance season, Glass said. European producers also have some flexibility as to sourcing feedstocks from the Mideast or the US. “Not only are skyrocketing feedstock costs a major upside pricing risk, but increasingly actual supply availability is a growing concern,” Semesnyei said. “Because of the way global trade is set up, the Asia region is most at risk, followed by Europe and then North America.” A big unknown for the resins market is the extent of the damage that has already occurred to Mideast petrochemical capacity. The attacks on Qatar’s Ras Laffan LNG plant and Iran’s South Pars gas field threaten feedstock supply for Mideast resins producers, Glass said, with a preliminary estimate of $25 billion worth of damage. Those facilities could face months, if not years, of repairs. “Even if they could get in and assess the damage, they can’t get access to the parts,” Glass said. “They would need to get some major equipment that is already on back order for two years.” <div class="wrapper-narrow"><dynamic-object type="jocchartid" resource-id="1798929d-28b3-4b03-be92-66a0e269ac32"></dynamic-object></div>There is little, if any, outbound logistical constraint facing North American resin shippers currently. Glass said the distributors and packagers that load resin into containers have enough capacity for more volumes, and container ships have ample space. Export freight rates have ticked higher in anticipation of more demand. The benchmark rate for shipping a dry 20-foot container from Houston to North Europe has reached $1,186, according to Xeneta, a 7% increase from the end of March. The US already exports about 50% of its total polyethylene production currently, Glass said, and that figure could reach 60% thanks to the current strong pricing. US resin customers have about 40 days of inventory, he added, which is a bit of a cushion for diverting product to export markets. But with about one-fifth of global supply coming out of the Mideast, US producers will not be able to replace it entirely. North American producers can likely bring utilization up to around 93% in the short-term, but that much utilization will also mean more maintenance for plant equipment. In the near term, the next major supply for the export market will be a Chevron Phillips Chemical and QatarEnergy plant in Orange, Texas, that is expected to be completed in mid-2026. The plant will be capable of making enough polyethylene resins to fill 46,000, 20-foot containers per year, but Glass said it will at least another two to three months after completion for the plant to reach that maximum output. Utilization above 90% is “the max that they can run,” Glass said. “We don’t have a lot of excess capacity.” The ongoing strength in resins prices could also force the market to self-correct, Semesnyei said, with consumers and companies deciding to cut back demand entirely due to higher costs for downstream products. “Major demand destruction will become a growing risk the longer the conflict lasts, impacting the entire world,” he said. Contact Michael Angell at <a href="mailto:michael.angell@spglobal.com">michael.angell@spglobal.com</a></div>

(The following story appears in the Top 100 Importers and Exporters issue of the Journal of Commerce magazine to be published May 4, 2026.) Following strong growth in 2025, US resins exports could see a repeat due to the global supply squeeze created by the war with Iran. But the degree of growth in 2026 will depend on how quickly new US supply can come online and whether surging resin prices will ultimately cause consumers to pull back. Outbound shipments of polyethylene and polypropylene, which account for over half of US chemicals exports, grew 10.7% to 1.23 million TEUs in 2025, according to PIERS, a sister product of the Journal of Commerce within S&P Global. Last year’s growth was the strongest since 2023, when import container demand returned to normal and allowed more space for exporters. China last year again received the largest share of overall US chemicals exports for any single country, but at 11.2% it was down from 14.3% in 2024 and the lowest share since before the pandemic, PIERS data showed. Brazil was next at 8%, down marginally from the year prior. Terry Glass, vice president at commodities price reporting agency Argus, said new supply coming online last year fueled 2025 growth. Dow Chemical opened its latest resins production line at its Freeport, Texas, plant, capable of producing enough polyethylene for filling 26,000 20-foot containers per year. After its first production line was completed in 2022, Shell now has three production lines operating at its Monaca plant in Pennsylvania, Glass said. The plant, largely dependent on export markets, can turn out enough resins to fill about 31,000, 20-foot containers annually. The new supply lowered margins on resin, causing producers to lower plant utilization to around 80% toward the end of 2025, Glass said. Producers also typically decrease production ahead of planned maintenance, which generally takes place during the first quarter. However, war in the Middle East has scrambled that plan. Since the end of February, polyethylene prices have roughly doubled as Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz has cut off the region’s petrochemical plants from the rest of the world. Glass said North American plants are now running at 91% utilization and likely to defer maintenance due to the strong pricing. “Producers were starting to cut (output) through December and January because they were not getting enough incremental margin,” he said. “We’re forecasting another six months of elevated prices and elevated demand for the US producers.” War damage to energy infrastructure Ted Semesnyei, an associate director for S&P Global, said the strong demand will play out in waves globally. Asia will be the first pinched by the cut in Mideast supply. While China has built up its own resin production to supply the region, it primarily uses crude oil from the Middle East as a feedstock. Chinese producers are starting to cut back because of high feedstock costs and are importing alternative feedstocks, which will also become more expensive over time. Europe has some buffer inventory, having built up resin stocks in anticipation of maintenance season, Glass said. European producers also have some flexibility as to sourcing feedstocks from the Mideast or the US. “Not only are skyrocketing feedstock costs a major upside pricing risk, but increasingly actual supply availability is a growing concern,” Semesnyei said. “Because of the way global trade is set up, the Asia region is most at risk, followed by Europe and then North America.” A big unknown for the resins market is the extent of the damage that has already occurred to Mideast petrochemical capacity. The attacks on Qatar’s Ras Laffan LNG plant and Iran’s South Pars gas field threaten feedstock supply for Mideast resins producers, Glass said, with a preliminary estimate of $25 billion worth of damage. Those facilities could face months, if not years, of repairs. “Even if they could get in and assess the damage, they can’t get access to the parts,” Glass said. “They would need to get some major equipment that is already on back order for two years.” There is little, if any, outbound logistical constraint facing North American resin shippers currently. Glass said the distributors and packagers that load resin into containers have enough capacity for more volumes, and container ships have ample space. Export freight rates have ticked higher in anticipation of more demand. The benchmark rate for shipping a dry 20-foot container from Houston to North Europe has reached $1,186, according to Xeneta, a 7% increase from the end of March. The US already exports about 50% of its total polyethylene production currently, Glass said, and that figure could reach 60% thanks to the current strong pricing. US resin customers have about 40 days of inventory, he added, which is a bit of a cushion for diverting product to export markets. But with about one-fifth of global supply coming out of the Mideast, US producers will not be able to replace it entirely. North American producers can likely bring utilization up to around 93% in the short-term, but that much utilization will also mean more maintenance for plant equipment. In the near term, the next major supply for the export market will be a Chevron Phillips Chemical and QatarEnergy plant in Orange, Texas, that is expected to be completed in mid-2026. The plant will be capable of making enough polyethylene resins to fill 46,000, 20-foot containers per year, but Glass said it will at least another two to three months after completion for the plant to reach that maximum output. Utilization above 90% is “the max that they can run,” Glass said. “We don’t have a lot of excess capacity.” The ongoing strength in resins prices could also force the market to self-correct, Semesnyei said, with consumers and companies deciding to cut back demand entirely due to higher costs for downstream products. “Major demand destruction will become a growing risk the longer the conflict lasts, impacting the entire world,” he said. Contact Michael Angell at michael.angell@spglobal.com

Asia-Europe

Trans-Pacific

Supply chain

Transport, Trade and Regulation News

War-driven supply squeeze could boost US resins exports in 2026

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">The agency’s ruling maintains the competitive status quo in which NS is the only railroad with direct access to Norfolk International Terminals.</div>

The agency’s ruling maintains the competitive status quo in which NS is the only railroad with direct access to Norfolk International Terminals.

<div class="phx-topic">The US Surface Transportation Board (STB) has sided with Norfolk Southern Railway in a long-running dispute over rail access at the Port of Virginia, rejecting CSX Transportation’s bid for direct on-dock service to Norfolk International Terminals (NIT). The STB’s unanimous decision, announced Monday, preserves the competitive structure in Norfolk that has existed since the 1980s. Norfolk Southern has direct access to NIT with separate tracks, while CSX must reach the terminal through the Norfolk &amp; Portsmouth Belt Line Railroad (NPBL), a short-line railroad. Norfolk Southern had “de facto” control of the NPBL since the 1980s, but it was never formally approved by federal regulators until now. CSX wanted the STB to require Norfolk Southern to provide equal access to NIT. The NPBL, CSX argued, charges an unreasonable rate to access NIT, resulting in CSX draying containers from NIT to Virginia International Gateway (VIG). Regulators noted, though, that the Virginia Port Authority subsidizes CSX’s drayage costs between NIT and VIG, and the port typically routes CSX-aligned ocean carriers to VIG to avoid the issue altogether. Both railroads can directly access VIG. “There is not likely to be a substantial lessening of competition, the creation of a monopoly, or restraint of trade in freight surface transportation in any region of the United States as a result of this transaction,” the STB said in its ruling. The agency also wrote that its job was to evaluate whether formal approval of NS’ control of NPBL would create new competitive harm, not to remedy “pre-existing disadvantages that other railroads, shippers, or communities may have been experiencing.” The STB attached several conditions to its ruling. The NPBL must continue to operate as a neutral railroad and may not discriminate between Norfolk Southern and CSX. Norfolk Southern is also barred from using NPBL to render NIT inaccessible to CSX through unfair pricing. In addition, NPBL may not discontinue routes or service to CSX or other third parties, and it must notify the STB of pricing and operational changes for the next five years. CSX has already unsuccessfully challenged the arrangement in federal court. The Eastern District of Virginia dismissed CSX’s antitrust claims, and the US Supreme Court declined to hear CSX’s appeal in 2023. Contact Ari Ashe at <a href="mailto:ari.ashe@spglobal.com">ari.ashe@spglobal.com</a>.</div>

The US Surface Transportation Board (STB) has sided with Norfolk Southern Railway in a long-running dispute over rail access at the Port of Virginia, rejecting CSX Transportation’s bid for direct on-dock service to Norfolk International Terminals (NIT). The STB’s unanimous decision, announced Monday, preserves the competitive structure in Norfolk that has existed since the 1980s. Norfolk Southern has direct access to NIT with separate tracks, while CSX must reach the terminal through the Norfolk & Portsmouth Belt Line Railroad (NPBL), a short-line railroad. Norfolk Southern had “de facto” control of the NPBL since the 1980s, but it was never formally approved by federal regulators until now. CSX wanted the STB to require Norfolk Southern to provide equal access to NIT. The NPBL, CSX argued, charges an unreasonable rate to access NIT, resulting in CSX draying containers from NIT to Virginia International Gateway (VIG). Regulators noted, though, that the Virginia Port Authority subsidizes CSX’s drayage costs between NIT and VIG, and the port typically routes CSX-aligned ocean carriers to VIG to avoid the issue altogether. Both railroads can directly access VIG. “There is not likely to be a substantial lessening of competition, the creation of a monopoly, or restraint of trade in freight surface transportation in any region of the United States as a result of this transaction,” the STB said in its ruling. The agency also wrote that its job was to evaluate whether formal approval of NS’ control of NPBL would create new competitive harm, not to remedy “pre-existing disadvantages that other railroads, shippers, or communities may have been experiencing.” The STB attached several conditions to its ruling. The NPBL must continue to operate as a neutral railroad and may not discriminate between Norfolk Southern and CSX. Norfolk Southern is also barred from using NPBL to render NIT inaccessible to CSX through unfair pricing. In addition, NPBL may not discontinue routes or service to CSX or other third parties, and it must notify the STB of pricing and operational changes for the next five years. CSX has already unsuccessfully challenged the arrangement in federal court. The Eastern District of Virginia dismissed CSX’s antitrust claims, and the US Supreme Court declined to hear CSX’s appeal in 2023. Contact Ari Ashe at ari.ashe@spglobal.com .

Rail News

Surface

North American ports

North-American rail

Intermodal providers

STB rules for Norfolk Southern in dispute with CSX at Port of Virginia

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">Earnings calls across home builders and home improvement and furniture retailers show an uneven market where consumers are choosing smaller maintenance and repair projects and delaying large discretionary purchases.</div>

Earnings calls across home builders and home improvement and furniture retailers show an uneven market where consumers are choosing smaller maintenance and repair projects and delaying large discretionary purchases.

<div class="phx-topic">(The following story appears in the Top 100 Importers and Exporters issue of the Journal of Commerce magazine to be published May 4, 2026.) US imports of household goods declined slightly in 2025, a pause driven by a weak housing market, persistent inflation, and affordability concerns weighing on the demand for furniture, appliances, and home furnishings. Earnings calls across home builders and home improvement and furniture retailers show an uneven market where consumers are choosing smaller maintenance and repair projects and delaying large discretionary purchases. Imports of household goods fell 1.3% last year to 5.3 million TEUs, according to PIERS, a sister product of the Journal of Commerce within S&amp;P Global. The compound annual growth rate was 3.4% in the last five years, but it has been a volatile and rocky road. Imports jumped 25% year over year in 2021 during the pandemic, then declined 5.8% in 2022 and 16.1% in 2023, before jumping 21.2% in 2024. Volume was approximately flat year over year at the ports of Los Angeles, Long Beach, New York and New Jersey, and Savannah. China remained the largest origin for US household goods imports, but its share fell to 49.9% last year from 55.4% in 2024 amid the tariff conflict and move for alternative sourcing. Vietnam increased its share to 23.9%, up from 20.3% the prior year. <h3>Industry fundamentals are weak </h3>The data points to a sector struggling with underlying housing fundamentals. Industrial production of household appliances fell 8.5% year over year in February, according to the US Federal Reserve. The biggest culprit is a continued imbalance between homebuyers and home inventory. “A typical home sale generates about $134,000 in economic activity, and a part of that is tied to furniture, appliances, and home-related goods,” Nadia Evangelou, principal economist for the National Association of Realtors (NAR), told the Journal of Commerce. <div class="wrapper-narrow"><dynamic-object type="jocchartid" resource-id="e18618ef-aa21-4767-bb0a-eea49b17ddf2"></dynamic-object></div>However, existing home sales dropped 1.4% year over year in February, while housing inventory grew 4.9% during the same period, according to NAR. New home construction, or “housing starts,” rose 9.2% year over year in January, according to the US Census Bureau, meaning there is even more inventory coming. “It’s very hard to predict how housing will play out,” Wayfair CEO Niraj Shah said during the company’s fourth-quarter earnings call. “Every quarter that goes by, the percentage of mortgages that get refinanced at the current rates keeps ticking up, but it’s a relatively slow process.” Jason Miller, an associate professor of supply chain management at Michigan State University, told the Journal of Commerce that this uncertainty is not good for freight volume. “The current ‘slow burn’ suggests at best a stabilization of freight volumes at lower levels than 2017-2019 for these types of goods, such as appliances,” Miller said. “It isn’t pointing towards a slow recovery.” <h3>Remodeling vs. repairs </h3>The Joint Center for Housing Studies at Harvard University forecasts just 1.6% growth in US remodeling spending later this year. Because that figure is nominal and not adjusted for inflation — currently about 2.5% to 3% — it effectively signals a decline in actual renovation activity. Dr. Rachel Bogardus Drew, director of the Remodeling Futures Program at Harvard, said people who are moving spend more on renovations than those staying in their existing homes. “People who have recently moved spend 50% more in the first year on home renovation than a similar homeowner who has not moved,” she told the Journal of Commerce. “Sometimes there’s upgrading that needs to be done, or they just want to remake the home to meet their needs or their tastes. So, a slowdown in existing home sales can cause a break on some remodeling activity.” For people remaining in their current homes, Drew said the tendency is to forego huge remodeling projects in favor of less expensive maintenance and repair work. That is consistent with commentary from home improvement retailers. “Consumers are still cautious about discretionary big-ticket purchases,” Brandon Sink, CFO for Lowe’s Companies, said on a February earnings call. “We forecast the home improvement market to be roughly flat this year.” Home construction companies such as D.R. Horton and Lennar can also drive demand for household goods like sofas and appliances, but mortgage rates hurt them as much as they hurt Home Depot and Lowe’s. “Mortgage interest rates, which showed some early signs of easing towards the end of last year, have remained stubbornly over 6%, hovering around 6.2% to 6.4%,” Stewart Miller, Lennar’s executive chairman, said on a March earnings call. “Affordability remains the central challenge facing our buyers. Consumer confidence, while not collapsing, continues to be tested by a range of uncertainties.” <h3>Outlook tied to housing recovery </h3>The outlook for household goods imports remains tied to the housing market. Harvard’s Drew said there is no silver bullet, but many things that can trigger a housing recovery. “Interest rates go down, then people start to think, ‘It’s a little more affordable now for me to look at moving, or to take out the funds to do renovations on my existing house, to tap that home equity,’” she said. “But the same thing could happen if house prices were to soften ... or if labor costs went down, or if it was cheaper to buy that sofa. Any one of these levers could kick start more activity, and all of them operating together is ideal.” NAR’s Evangelou said existing home sales should improve through the year, which will gradually increase demand for household goods, but it will also be a slow process that might drag into 2027. Contact Ari Ashe at <a href="mailto:ari.ashe@spglobal.com">ari.ashe@spglobal.com</a>.</div>

(The following story appears in the Top 100 Importers and Exporters issue of the Journal of Commerce magazine to be published May 4, 2026.) US imports of household goods declined slightly in 2025, a pause driven by a weak housing market, persistent inflation, and affordability concerns weighing on the demand for furniture, appliances, and home furnishings. Earnings calls across home builders and home improvement and furniture retailers show an uneven market where consumers are choosing smaller maintenance and repair projects and delaying large discretionary purchases. Imports of household goods fell 1.3% last year to 5.3 million TEUs, according to PIERS, a sister product of the Journal of Commerce within S&P Global. The compound annual growth rate was 3.4% in the last five years, but it has been a volatile and rocky road. Imports jumped 25% year over year in 2021 during the pandemic, then declined 5.8% in 2022 and 16.1% in 2023, before jumping 21.2% in 2024. Volume was approximately flat year over year at the ports of Los Angeles, Long Beach, New York and New Jersey, and Savannah. China remained the largest origin for US household goods imports, but its share fell to 49.9% last year from 55.4% in 2024 amid the tariff conflict and move for alternative sourcing. Vietnam increased its share to 23.9%, up from 20.3% the prior year. Industry fundamentals are weak The data points to a sector struggling with underlying housing fundamentals. Industrial production of household appliances fell 8.5% year over year in February, according to the US Federal Reserve. The biggest culprit is a continued imbalance between homebuyers and home inventory. “A typical home sale generates about $134,000 in economic activity, and a part of that is tied to furniture, appliances, and home-related goods,” Nadia Evangelou, principal economist for the National Association of Realtors (NAR), told the Journal of Commerce. However, existing home sales dropped 1.4% year over year in February, while housing inventory grew 4.9% during the same period, according to NAR. New home construction, or “housing starts,” rose 9.2% year over year in January, according to the US Census Bureau, meaning there is even more inventory coming. “It’s very hard to predict how housing will play out,” Wayfair CEO Niraj Shah said during the company’s fourth-quarter earnings call. “Every quarter that goes by, the percentage of mortgages that get refinanced at the current rates keeps ticking up, but it’s a relatively slow process.” Jason Miller, an associate professor of supply chain management at Michigan State University, told the Journal of Commerce that this uncertainty is not good for freight volume. “The current ‘slow burn’ suggests at best a stabilization of freight volumes at lower levels than 2017-2019 for these types of goods, such as appliances,” Miller said. “It isn’t pointing towards a slow recovery.” Remodeling vs. repairs The Joint Center for Housing Studies at Harvard University forecasts just 1.6% growth in US remodeling spending later this year. Because that figure is nominal and not adjusted for inflation — currently about 2.5% to 3% — it effectively signals a decline in actual renovation activity. Dr. Rachel Bogardus Drew, director of the Remodeling Futures Program at Harvard, said people who are moving spend more on renovations than those staying in their existing homes. “People who have recently moved spend 50% more in the first year on home renovation than a similar homeowner who has not moved,” she told the Journal of Commerce. “Sometimes there’s upgrading that needs to be done, or they just want to remake the home to meet their needs or their tastes. So, a slowdown in existing home sales can cause a break on some remodeling activity.” For people remaining in their current homes, Drew said the tendency is to forego huge remodeling projects in favor of less expensive maintenance and repair work. That is consistent with commentary from home improvement retailers. “Consumers are still cautious about discretionary big-ticket purchases,” Brandon Sink, CFO for Lowe’s Companies, said on a February earnings call. “We forecast the home improvement market to be roughly flat this year.” Home construction companies such as D.R. Horton and Lennar can also drive demand for household goods like sofas and appliances, but mortgage rates hurt them as much as they hurt Home Depot and Lowe’s. “Mortgage interest rates, which showed some early signs of easing towards the end of last year, have remained stubbornly over 6%, hovering around 6.2% to 6.4%,” Stewart Miller, Lennar’s executive chairman, said on a March earnings call. “Affordability remains the central challenge facing our buyers. Consumer confidence, while not collapsing, continues to be tested by a range of uncertainties.” Outlook tied to housing recovery The outlook for household goods imports remains tied to the housing market. Harvard’s Drew said there is no silver bullet, but many things that can trigger a housing recovery. “Interest rates go down, then people start to think, ‘It’s a little more affordable now for me to look at moving, or to take out the funds to do renovations on my existing house, to tap that home equity,’” she said. “But the same thing could happen if house prices were to soften ... or if labor costs went down, or if it was cheaper to buy that sofa. Any one of these levers could kick start more activity, and all of them operating together is ideal.” NAR’s Evangelou said existing home sales should improve through the year, which will gradually increase demand for household goods, but it will also be a slow process that might drag into 2027. Contact Ari Ashe at ari.ashe@spglobal.com .

Container Shipping News

US household goods imports flatten as housing weakness weighs on demand

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">The ocean carrier said it would no longer call Oakland on one of its trans-Pacific services, with another service into the Pacific Northwest dropping a Vietnam call.</div>

The ocean carrier said it would no longer call Oakland on one of its trans-Pacific services, with another service into the Pacific Northwest dropping a Vietnam call.

<div class="phx-topic">Mediterranean Shipping Co. (MSC) is reducing the number of West Coast port calls it makes on one of its trans-Pacific services and changing its Asian port rotations in a bid to improve schedule reliability and service consistency. MSC said in a customer advisory late last week that its Orient service from China would no longer call Oakland, effective as of the April 30 departure of the 8,827-TEU MSC Naomi from Qingdao. MSC said it made the change so “the service will be less exposed to port congestion risks, allowing for improved schedule reliability and more consistent on-time arrivals.” Amid last year’s tariff turmoil, Oakland saw an 8.6% drop in imports from China in 2025, according to PIERS, a sister company of the Journal of Commerce within S&amp;P Global, close to the overall 8.1% drop for all inbound volumes from China to West Coast ports. Although not in MSC’s advisory, the Orient service, whose only West Coast call will be the carrier’s Long Beach terminal, has also effectively dropped Portland, Oregon, as a regular call, even though the port was listed on the rotation in earlier Orient service brochures. MSC, <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/msc-restores-trans-pacific-liberty-service-with-new-call-at-philadelphia-5703074">which has offered intermittent service to Portland since the pandemic</a>, last called Portland with a post-Panamax container ship in May 2025, according to Sea-web, a sister company of the Journal of Commerce. The carrier, meanwhile, is adding Vietnam’s Haiphong as a regular call to its Sentosa service from Southeast Asia to Long Beach and Oakland. The new call from Haiphong, MSC’s first direct service from that port into Long Beach, will be in effect as of the April 16 departure from Haiphong of the 16,616-TEU MSC Lorenza. MSC said the change “will offer improved transit times compared to the previous routing, while optimizing port coverage within a more stable network structure.” <h3>Dropping Haiphong on Chinook service </h3>However, MSC will be dropping Haiphong as a call on its Chinook service into the Pacific Northwest, leaving Vietnam’s Vung Tau, major Chinese ports, and South Korea’s Busan on the service. The new Chinook rotation will be in effect as of the April 13 departure of the 10,114-TEU Express Athens from Vung Tau. MSC said the dropped call from Haiphong will provide Pacific Northwest shippers with more schedule buffer in the event of delays. But it also comes as the Pacific Northwest saw only 3% growth in imports from Southeast Asia last year, according to PIERS data, versus a 19.6% overall growth for Southeast Asian imports into West Coast ports. Third-party logistics provider <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/uwl-locks-in-new-vessel-partner-for-trans-pacific-vietnam-service-6032327">UWL recently shut down its express service from northern Vietnam into the Pacific Northwest</a> due to the lack of business. Contact Michael Angell at <a href="mailto:michael.angell@spglobal.com">michael.angell@spglobal.com</a>. </div>

Mediterranean Shipping Co. (MSC) is reducing the number of West Coast port calls it makes on one of its trans-Pacific services and changing its Asian port rotations in a bid to improve schedule reliability and service consistency. MSC said in a customer advisory late last week that its Orient service from China would no longer call Oakland, effective as of the April 30 departure of the 8,827-TEU MSC Naomi from Qingdao. MSC said it made the change so “the service will be less exposed to port congestion risks, allowing for improved schedule reliability and more consistent on-time arrivals.” Amid last year’s tariff turmoil, Oakland saw an 8.6% drop in imports from China in 2025, according to PIERS, a sister company of the Journal of Commerce within S&P Global, close to the overall 8.1% drop for all inbound volumes from China to West Coast ports. Although not in MSC’s advisory, the Orient service, whose only West Coast call will be the carrier’s Long Beach terminal, has also effectively dropped Portland, Oregon, as a regular call, even though the port was listed on the rotation in earlier Orient service brochures. MSC, which has offered intermittent service to Portland since the pandemic , last called Portland with a post-Panamax container ship in May 2025, according to Sea-web, a sister company of the Journal of Commerce. The carrier, meanwhile, is adding Vietnam’s Haiphong as a regular call to its Sentosa service from Southeast Asia to Long Beach and Oakland. The new call from Haiphong, MSC’s first direct service from that port into Long Beach, will be in effect as of the April 16 departure from Haiphong of the 16,616-TEU MSC Lorenza. MSC said the change “will offer improved transit times compared to the previous routing, while optimizing port coverage within a more stable network structure.” Dropping Haiphong on Chinook service However, MSC will be dropping Haiphong as a call on its Chinook service into the Pacific Northwest, leaving Vietnam’s Vung Tau, major Chinese ports, and South Korea’s Busan on the service. The new Chinook rotation will be in effect as of the April 13 departure of the 10,114-TEU Express Athens from Vung Tau. MSC said the dropped call from Haiphong will provide Pacific Northwest shippers with more schedule buffer in the event of delays. But it also comes as the Pacific Northwest saw only 3% growth in imports from Southeast Asia last year, according to PIERS data, versus a 19.6% overall growth for Southeast Asian imports into West Coast ports. Third-party logistics provider UWL recently shut down its express service from northern Vietnam into the Pacific Northwest due to the lack of business. Contact Michael Angell at michael.angell@spglobal.com .

Port News

Container lines

MSC consolidates USWC, Asian calls to boost trans-Pacific reliability

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">The state was largely insulated from the volatility seen in the Midwest and Northeast over the winter because it did not face the same prolonged cold and snowstorms. </div>

The state was largely insulated from the volatility seen in the Midwest and Northeast over the winter because it did not face the same prolonged cold and snowstorms.

<div class="phx-topic">The war with Iran has pushed up diesel prices and driven spot truckload rates sharply higher in California, the one major freight market that had largely avoided the winter pricing pressure seen in the Midwest and Northeast. California has been the clearest holdout in a truckload market that has shown signs of tightening after a prolonged freight recession. Outbound dry-van spot rates from Illinois climbed 55 cents per mile between Dec. 1 and Feb. 28 while rates from New York rose 49 cents due to snowstorms and frigid temperatures during that period, according to a Journal of Commerce analysis of trucking data covering more than 4,000 lanes from DAT Freight &amp; Analytics, Loadsmart, Sunset Transportation, and a survey of other brokers and shippers. By contrast, California outbound rates rose only 11 cents in the same three months. California was largely insulated from the volatility seen in the Midwest and Northeast because it did not face the same prolonged cold and snowstorms. That enabled some shippers to believe rates would ease when the winter weather ended, something that went by the boards once the war with Iran began on the last day of February. Since then, average US diesel prices have climbed approximately $1.50 per gallon through the first month of the conflict, according to the US Energy Information Administration. In a state that already has some of the nation’s highest fuel costs because of taxes and specialized environmental fuel rules, the increase quickly changed California’s pricing picture. The state’s average diesel price jumped $2.23 during the first month of the war, to $7.22/gal, according to the EIA. At the same time, California canceled 13,000 non-domiciled commercial driver’s licenses last month. The higher diesel prices and tighter capacity caused spot truckload rates in the state to jump 18 cents in March from February, according to the Journal of Commerce analysis, while national rates rose approximately the same amount. The latest figures from DAT Freight &amp; Analytics show spot rates climbing across all major equipment types as capacity tightens and fuel costs increase. The national average dry-van linehaul spot rate reached $2.04 per mile last week, up 12 cents over two weeks and 24% higher year over year. Refrigerated rates averaged $2.43 per mile, up 53 cents from a year ago, while flatbed rates rose to $2.55 per mile — the highest in four years. “The trucking industry is doing quite well,” Avery Vise, vice president of trucking at FTR Intelligence, said in an interview on SiriusXM’s Channel 146. “A lot of these fuel costs have been recovered. It’s a cash flow problem for some carriers, but capacity is driving this. It is steadily declining and has been since 2022 and 2023. Capacity is very tight. I think we can declare the freight rate recession is over.” While midsize and large carriers can pass through higher diesel costs to customers via fuel surcharges, which have risen approximately 25 to 30 cents per mile since March 1, smaller owner-operators and port drayage drivers often negotiate all-in rates that include fuel. That means a sudden jolt in rates intensifies short-term cash-flow pressure. Robert Loya, president of the West Coast-based Harbor Trucking Association, said port drayage operators are often waiting weeks to recover those costs. “It’s insane,” Loya said. “Especially if you are doing ocean carrier business, you are looking at 45 days minimum before you are paid. With beneficial cargo owners, some may pay you in two or three weeks, but at the end of the day you are still carrying those costs.” Despite the pressure, Loya said he has not seen fleets or independent operators pull capacity off the road — an indication that underlying freight demand remains firm enough to sustain operations. On the demand side, manufacturing is showing early signs of recovery that could support additional freight volumes. The Institute for Supply Management’s Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index registered 52.7 in March, marking a third consecutive month of expansion. Whether the current shift develops into a sustained recovery will depend on the consistency of freight demand in the months ahead. <h3>Pushing freight to intermodal</h3>Three intermodal providers, who asked not to be identified, said they have seen a resurgence in shippers investigating the rail option amid the strength in truckload. A western US asset-based intermodal provider said the inquiries have picked up in recent weeks. “It isn’t necessarily desperation. The shippers are contacting us after not hearing them for a few years to ask about rates on certain lanes or asking what lanes might work [on intermodal] that they hadn’t thought of before,” the president of the carrier said. “Shippers are offering us freight starting as soon as next week.” A non-asset-based intermodal marketing company (IMC) based in the Northeast said its business last month was double that of March 2025. The owner of the IMC agreed the conversations did not feel like shippers were desperate, just inquisitive. “We haven’t received many customers who are converting from truckload,” the source said. “They’re using other intermodal providers who have struggled with the business, and they turn to us.” One Midwest-based truckload and intermodal broker told the Journal of Commerce that many of its long-term existing customers are shifting their freight from truckload to rail. Domestic intermodal data for March has not been released yet by the Intermodal Association of North America. J.B. Hunt Transport Services, the largest US intermodal provider, will hold a call with industry analysts after reporting earnings on April 15. Contact Dan Ronan at <a href="mailto:contactdanronan@gmail.com">contactdanronan@gmail.com</a>. Contact Ari Ashe at <a href="mailto:ari.ashe@spglobal.com">ari.ashe@spglobal.com</a>. </div>

The war with Iran has pushed up diesel prices and driven spot truckload rates sharply higher in California, the one major freight market that had largely avoided the winter pricing pressure seen in the Midwest and Northeast. California has been the clearest holdout in a truckload market that has shown signs of tightening after a prolonged freight recession. Outbound dry-van spot rates from Illinois climbed 55 cents per mile between Dec. 1 and Feb. 28 while rates from New York rose 49 cents due to snowstorms and frigid temperatures during that period, according to a Journal of Commerce analysis of trucking data covering more than 4,000 lanes from DAT Freight & Analytics, Loadsmart, Sunset Transportation, and a survey of other brokers and shippers. By contrast, California outbound rates rose only 11 cents in the same three months. California was largely insulated from the volatility seen in the Midwest and Northeast because it did not face the same prolonged cold and snowstorms. That enabled some shippers to believe rates would ease when the winter weather ended, something that went by the boards once the war with Iran began on the last day of February. Since then, average US diesel prices have climbed approximately $1.50 per gallon through the first month of the conflict, according to the US Energy Information Administration. In a state that already has some of the nation’s highest fuel costs because of taxes and specialized environmental fuel rules, the increase quickly changed California’s pricing picture. The state’s average diesel price jumped $2.23 during the first month of the war, to $7.22/gal, according to the EIA. At the same time, California canceled 13,000 non-domiciled commercial driver’s licenses last month. The higher diesel prices and tighter capacity caused spot truckload rates in the state to jump 18 cents in March from February, according to the Journal of Commerce analysis, while national rates rose approximately the same amount. The latest figures from DAT Freight & Analytics show spot rates climbing across all major equipment types as capacity tightens and fuel costs increase. The national average dry-van linehaul spot rate reached $2.04 per mile last week, up 12 cents over two weeks and 24% higher year over year. Refrigerated rates averaged $2.43 per mile, up 53 cents from a year ago, while flatbed rates rose to $2.55 per mile — the highest in four years. “The trucking industry is doing quite well,” Avery Vise, vice president of trucking at FTR Intelligence, said in an interview on SiriusXM’s Channel 146. “A lot of these fuel costs have been recovered. It’s a cash flow problem for some carriers, but capacity is driving this. It is steadily declining and has been since 2022 and 2023. Capacity is very tight. I think we can declare the freight rate recession is over.” While midsize and large carriers can pass through higher diesel costs to customers via fuel surcharges, which have risen approximately 25 to 30 cents per mile since March 1, smaller owner-operators and port drayage drivers often negotiate all-in rates that include fuel. That means a sudden jolt in rates intensifies short-term cash-flow pressure. Robert Loya, president of the West Coast-based Harbor Trucking Association, said port drayage operators are often waiting weeks to recover those costs. “It’s insane,” Loya said. “Especially if you are doing ocean carrier business, you are looking at 45 days minimum before you are paid. With beneficial cargo owners, some may pay you in two or three weeks, but at the end of the day you are still carrying those costs.” Despite the pressure, Loya said he has not seen fleets or independent operators pull capacity off the road — an indication that underlying freight demand remains firm enough to sustain operations. On the demand side, manufacturing is showing early signs of recovery that could support additional freight volumes. The Institute for Supply Management’s Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index registered 52.7 in March, marking a third consecutive month of expansion. Whether the current shift develops into a sustained recovery will depend on the consistency of freight demand in the months ahead. Pushing freight to intermodal Three intermodal providers, who asked not to be identified, said they have seen a resurgence in shippers investigating the rail option amid the strength in truckload. A western US asset-based intermodal provider said the inquiries have picked up in recent weeks. “It isn’t necessarily desperation. The shippers are contacting us after not hearing them for a few years to ask about rates on certain lanes or asking what lanes might work [on intermodal] that they hadn’t thought of before,” the president of the carrier said. “Shippers are offering us freight starting as soon as next week.” A non-asset-based intermodal marketing company (IMC) based in the Northeast said its business last month was double that of March 2025. The owner of the IMC agreed the conversations did not feel like shippers were desperate, just inquisitive. “We haven’t received many customers who are converting from truckload,” the source said. “They’re using other intermodal providers who have struggled with the business, and they turn to us.” One Midwest-based truckload and intermodal broker told the Journal of Commerce that many of its long-term existing customers are shifting their freight from truckload to rail. Domestic intermodal data for March has not been released yet by the Intermodal Association of North America. J.B. Hunt Transport Services, the largest US intermodal provider, will hold a call with industry analysts after reporting earnings on April 15. Contact Dan Ronan at contactdanronan@gmail.com . Contact Ari Ashe at ari.ashe@spglobal.com .

Trucking News

Truckload

California truckload rates rise as fuel spikes, capacity cuts tighten market

Use code GTT26W at checkout and save $900 on first year of an annual Gold subscription!

Upgrade Subscription - Gold Trials

Become a Gold Subscriber and Save!

Arm your team with the most trusted information portal for the international container shipping industry.

Group Subscriptions - Wide Box

Get into a group subscription today

Use code SSFTW30 at checkout to save 30% on a Silver or Silver Plus annual subscription! 

Subscribe Now - FT to S/SP - Wide Box

SPRING SALE!

Use code GW595 and upgrade to Gold for just $595! Valid for first year of subscription.

Upgrade Subscription - S/SP to Gold - Wide Box

SAVE $900 ON A GOLD SUBSCRIPTION

Use code SSLW30 at checkout and save 30% on an annual Silver or Silver Plus subscription!

Subscribe Now - Anonymous to S/SP - Wide Box

Access Journal of Commerce content for 30 days

Free Trial - Wide Box

START A FREE TRIAL TODAY

Use code SSGFTW895 at checkout to save $600 on first year of a Gold subscription!

Subscribe Now - FT to Gold - Wide Box

Use code SSLW895 at checkout and save $600 on first year of a Gold subscription!

Subscribe Now - Anonymous to Gold - Wide Box

SPRING SALE: Use code SSFTW30 to save 30% on first year of a Silver or Silver Plus annual subscription!


Subscribe Now - FT to S/SP - Offer Box

Subscribe and Save

GET INTO A GROUP SUBSCRIPTION: Arm your team with unlimited Journal of Commerce content

Group Subscriptions - Offer Box

Group Subscriptions

SPRING SALE: Use code SSLW30 at checkout and save 30% on an annual Silver or Silver Plus subscription!

Subscribe Now - Anonymous to S/SP - Offer Box

SUBSCRIBE TODAY

UPGRADE TO GOLD AND SAVE: Use code GTT26W at checkout and save $900 on first year of a Gold subscription!

Upgrade Subscription

SPRING SALE: Use code SSLW895 at checkout and save $600 on an annual Gold subscription!

Subscribe Now - Anonymous to Gold - Offer Box

SAVE $900 ON A GOLD SUBSCRIPTION: Use code GW595 and upgrade to Gold for just $595! Valid on first year of subscription.

Upgrade Subscription - S/SP to Gold - Offer Box

SPRING SALE: Use code SSGFTW895 and save $600 on the first year of a Gold subscription!

Subscribe Now - FT to Gold - Offer Box

SUBSCRIBE AND SAVE

Monthly publication providing an editorial deep dive into global supply chain news

Journal of Commerce Magazine - Rectangle Box

Journal of Commerce Magazine

A premium access index of savings using domestic intermodal vs. OTR 

ISI Report - Rectangle Box

Intermodal Savings Index

An in-depth analysis of transport trends in the multipurpose and heavy-lift fleet segment

Breakbulk Report - Rectangle Box

Breakbulk Quarterly

An extensive dashboard of charts organized by trade lane, mode, and topic

Gateway - Rectangle Box

Gateway

Customers scoring their intermodal partners to identify the best service providers

Intermodal Service Scorecard - Rectangle Box

Intermodal Service Scorecard

A premium access outlook critical to shippers and transportation providers

QI Report - Rectangle Box

Quarterly Intelligence

The only editorially independent conference for the breakbulk & project cargo industry

Breakbulk Conference - Rectangle Box

Attend Breakbulk26

The Journal of Commerce is the industry’s source for maritime news and analysis about ocean container shipping, logistics, supply chains, global shipping ports, shipping technology solutions and end-to-end connectivity. Coverage tracks the movement of containerized cargo — from origin to destination — handled by marine terminals in the US and abroad, depots, container ports, container lines, drayage, consignees and shippers, forwarders, non-vessel operating common carriers (NVOs) and off-dock warehousing providers, as well as pricing, capacity, volume and reliability on the trans-Pacific, Asia–Europe, North America–Caribbean, Central and South American and intra-Asia trades.

Discover comprehensive trucking news and trends with Journal of Commerce - from trucking LTL to regulation and trucking supply and demand.

Breakbulk News shipping | Journal of Commerce

Breakbulk News

Container shipping news and analysis of ocean container shipping, logistics, supply chains, technology and end-to-end connectivity.

Container Shipping News | Journal of Commerce

Stay informed on port news worldwide with Journal of Commerce. From decarbonization to labor updates, get insights on global developments.

Port News | Journal of Commerce

News and analysis of ocean containerized cargo movement, logistics, supply chains, technology, and end-to-end connectivity. Maritime news and analysis of containerized ocean cargo movement, breakbulk and roll-on and roll-off shipping from origin to destination.

Latest News

More News & Analysis

War-driven supply squeeze could boost US resins exports in 2026

STB rules for Norfolk Southern in dispute with CSX at Port of Virginia

US household goods imports flatten as housing weakness weighs on demand