<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">When President Clinton arrives in Hong Kong at the end of his June trip to China, chances are he wil</div>

When President Clinton arrives in Hong Kong at the end of his June trip to China, chances are he wil

<div>When President Clinton arrives in Hong Kong at the end of his June trip to China, chances are he will read or glance at the South China Morning Post, arguably the best English-language newspaper in Asia and, as a matter of record, the most profitable newspaper in the world.On the other hand, there is scant chance Mr. Clinton will click on the Internet Web site ''NOT The South China Morning Post'' (home.netvigator.com/''adamspub/index.htm), which has taken on the job of monitoring with stinging satire the state of freedom of the press in Hong Kong since last year's July 1 transfer from...

When President Clinton arrives in Hong Kong at the end of his June trip to China, chances are he will read or glance at the South China Morning Post, arguably the best English-language newspaper in Asia and, as a matter of record, the most profitable newspaper in the world. On the other hand, there is scant chance Mr. Clinton will click on the Internet Web site ''NOT The South China Morning Post'' (home.netvigator.com/''adamspub/index.htm), which has taken on the job of monitoring with stinging satire the state of freedom of the press in Hong Kong since last year's July 1 transfer from British colonial rule to Chinese sovereignty.''NOT The South China Morning Post'' and its founder, acerbic Briton Dr. George Adams, have ruffled official feathers in Hong Kong. They also have attracted enough Internet-wide attention to be counted as ''one of the 50 most important international Web sites'' by the Online Journalism Review ( www.ojr.org ) of the University of Southern California's Annenberg School of Communications. Author and classical music critic Adams won notoriety over the past year for tweaking the news judgment of Post Editor Jonathan Fenby, of whom he wrote, ''I have come to the conclusion that you are a pro-Peking mouthpiece.'' The urbane Mr. Fenby, to his everlasting credit, switched from ignoring Mr. Adams to engaging him in online debate. Now even top editors at the Post are said to sign on for the dialog, which undoubtedly has helped Mr. Adams gain notoriety. Responding to a recent Adams barb, Mr. Fenby complained: ''It really would be nice if you would read the paper more closely before firing off your darts or had the decency to admit your mistakes. But I might as well wait until pigs fly over Lantau (an island near Hong Kong where the new Chek Lap Kok Airport is located), I suppose.'' Mr. Adams has had plenty of ammunition to use in criticizing the Post. There was a rash of firings, the disappearance of features like the ''World of Lily Wong,'' which referred to ex-Premier Li Peng as the ''butcher of Tiananmen,'' banishment of ''dissident'' writers and editors, a creeping self-censorship, following Beijing causes like harsh criticism of the film ''Seven Years in Tibet'' the week it opened in Hong Kong, and the hiring of former China Daily Editor Feng Xi-liang as a ''consultant'' at China's behest to sit in a special office next to Mr. Fenby's. Now there is new fodder, as pro-democracy activists Martin Lee and ex-journalist Emily Lau, who have been saying some of the same things as Mr. Adams, including criticism of Chief Executive Tung Chee-hwa, won convincing victories last weekend in an election format imposed by Beijing. This was the first mainland Chinese jurisdiction to hold such extensive elections with a genuine opposition. Mr. Adams was in Tokyo recently attending a seminar on (what else?) ''Press Freedom in Hong Kong.'' He told me he has been '''overwhelmed'' by the response to ''NOT The South China Morning Post'' and credits Mr. Fenby, inadvertently, with part of the popularity. The Web site has had ''hits'' from every continent. Mr. Adams takes as compliments comments like one from the United States: ''I am really surprised that the PLA (China's People's Liberation Army) hasn't had you rubbed out.'' ''NOT The South China Morning Post'' is an example of a burgeoning Internet phenomenon: a small, often one-man publisher takes on a respected institution. But like the Matt Drudge Report in the United States on the Bill Clinton-Monica Lewinsky affair, there can be questions about sourcing and veracity. The Post, founded in 1903, grew up with Hong Kong. It was previously owned by media baron Rupert Murdoch, who sold it several years ago to pro-Beijing Chinese Robert Kuok, owner of the luxury Shangri-la Hotel chain. The paper's circulation is only 120,000 but it frequently carries classified advertising sections of more than 100 pages and remains the favored paper of the ''business-banking establishment,'' indicative of Hong Kong's international character. The Post boasts its own highly praised (among others, by Editor & Publisher magazine of the U.S.) Web site ( www.scmp.com.news ), which carries many of the features of the daily paper. So far there has been no attempt at censorship of his Web site, Mr. Adams said. But his comment came amid reports that China is indeed trying selectively to check the spread of Internet access. Cox News Service reported recently, ''You cannot access the 'Human Rights in China Web site' in Hong Kong: that one is blocked by a Chinese censor's electronic filters.'' I think of Dr. George Adams and ''NOT the South China Morning Post'' as kin to the lone Chinese who challenged the column of tanks at Tiananmen Square in June of 1989.

HONG KONG'S MEDIA WATCHDOG

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">Adoption of digital bills of lading has been stronger in Asia, but US traction is necessary to help container lines meet a 2030 commitment to fully move to electronic documents.</div>

Adoption of digital bills of lading has been stronger in Asia, but US traction is necessary to help container lines meet a 2030 commitment to fully move to electronic documents.

Feature image

<div class="phx-topic">US Bank has completed its first trade finance transaction using a digital ocean bill of lading, another small step toward the industry’s intent to transition to 100% digital BoLs by 2030. The transaction, disclosed by US Bank on Thursday, was facilitated by electronic bill of lading (eBL) software vendor WaveBL for a US-based exporter using Mediterranean Shipping Co. (MSC), which issued the eBL. MSC is a WaveBL customer, one of two container lines using the software vendor; Zim Integrated Shipping Services is the other. Adoption of eBLs is growing, but off a low base, and is more commonly used in Asia, where the eBL software provider IQAX is getting traction among banks and export suppliers. The nine member carriers of the Digital Container Shipping Association (DCSA) committed in early 2023 to shift to 100% digital bills of lading by 2030. This week’s move by US Bank highlights the potential in American banks adopting a process to accommodate digital bills of lading. Traditionally, bills of lading transfer title between buyers and sellers at a point determined by the shipment’s Incoterm, and banks traditionally play a role in issuing letters of credit to suppliers. In theory, an eBL would negate the need for most letters of credit, as the digital data contained in the document can be used by the buyer, seller, shipping line and banks to understand the financial risk of the shipment. “Our clients are looking for smarter, more efficient ways to manage their import and export activities,” US Bank Senior Vice President Christine Bravo said in a statement. US Bank said a transaction like this normally would require a courier to physically transport documents across continents, often taking several days. “By contrast, the digital process reduced that timeline to minutes, eliminating delays, [and] enhancing security and compliance,” the bank said. Contact Eric Johnson at <a href="mailto:eric.johnson@spglobal.com">eric.johnson@spglobal.com</a>. </div>

US Bank has completed its first trade finance transaction using a digital ocean bill of lading, another small step toward the industry’s intent to transition to 100% digital BoLs by 2030. The transaction, disclosed by US Bank on Thursday, was facilitated by electronic bill of lading (eBL) software vendor WaveBL for a US-based exporter using Mediterranean Shipping Co. (MSC), which issued the eBL. MSC is a WaveBL customer, one of two container lines using the software vendor; Zim Integrated Shipping Services is the other. Adoption of eBLs is growing, but off a low base, and is more commonly used in Asia, where the eBL software provider IQAX is getting traction among banks and export suppliers. The nine member carriers of the Digital Container Shipping Association (DCSA) committed in early 2023 to shift to 100% digital bills of lading by 2030. This week’s move by US Bank highlights the potential in American banks adopting a process to accommodate digital bills of lading. Traditionally, bills of lading transfer title between buyers and sellers at a point determined by the shipment’s Incoterm, and banks traditionally play a role in issuing letters of credit to suppliers. In theory, an eBL would negate the need for most letters of credit, as the digital data contained in the document can be used by the buyer, seller, shipping line and banks to understand the financial risk of the shipment. “Our clients are looking for smarter, more efficient ways to manage their import and export activities,” US Bank Senior Vice President Christine Bravo said in a statement. US Bank said a transaction like this normally would require a courier to physically transport documents across continents, often taking several days. “By contrast, the digital process reduced that timeline to minutes, eliminating delays, [and] enhancing security and compliance,” the bank said. Contact Eric Johnson at eric.johnson@spglobal.com .

Maritime

Logistics Technology News

US Bank eBL trial for US exporter notches another step toward 2030 goal

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">The Marseille-based liner has finalized operational plans to call off its remaining vessel-sharing agreements with the carriers after Gemini Cooperation-linked realignments.</div>

The Marseille-based liner has finalized operational plans to call off its remaining vessel-sharing agreements with the carriers after Gemini Cooperation-linked realignments.

<div class="phx-topic">CMA CGM is switching from vessel-sharing agreements (VSAs) to standalone operations across trades out of India in a new strategic approach as it expands its fleet. The Marseille-based liner has finalized operational plans to call off its two remaining VSAs with Hapag-Lloyd and Maersk after Gemini Cooperation-linked realignments. The upcoming disengagements include the Swahili Express (SWAX2) loop run with Hapag-Lloyd on the India-East Africa trade and the Midas network, involving two strings, operated with Maersk on the India-West Africa trade. CMA CGM has had three ships out of the five used on the joint SWAX2, with one vessel each from Hapag-Lloyd and Emirates Shipping Line (ESL). Midas has involved a fleet of 10 ships — six from Maersk and four from CMA CGM — on String 1 and three vessels from each on String 2. The French carrier has already sent its partners termination notices, due to take effect from next month for the SWAX2 operation and from late 2025/early 2026 for the Midas network. Sources at Hapag-Lloyd and Maersk in India were unavailable for comment. The Gemini launch in February saw CMA CGM delink from the decades-long consortium partnerships with Hapag-Lloyd on the India-US East Coast and North Europe trades. CMA CGM's India VSA operations are now confined to Cosco Shipping/OOCL on the Epic service. Contact Bency Mathew at <a href="mailto:bencyvmathew@gmail.com">bencyvmathew@gmail.com</a>. </div>

CMA CGM is switching from vessel-sharing agreements (VSAs) to standalone operations across trades out of India in a new strategic approach as it expands its fleet. The Marseille-based liner has finalized operational plans to call off its two remaining VSAs with Hapag-Lloyd and Maersk after Gemini Cooperation-linked realignments. The upcoming disengagements include the Swahili Express (SWAX2) loop run with Hapag-Lloyd on the India-East Africa trade and the Midas network, involving two strings, operated with Maersk on the India-West Africa trade. CMA CGM has had three ships out of the five used on the joint SWAX2, with one vessel each from Hapag-Lloyd and Emirates Shipping Line (ESL). Midas has involved a fleet of 10 ships — six from Maersk and four from CMA CGM — on String 1 and three vessels from each on String 2. The French carrier has already sent its partners termination notices, due to take effect from next month for the SWAX2 operation and from late 2025/early 2026 for the Midas network. Sources at Hapag-Lloyd and Maersk in India were unavailable for comment. The Gemini launch in February saw CMA CGM delink from the decades-long consortium partnerships with Hapag-Lloyd on the India-US East Coast and North Europe trades. CMA CGM's India VSA operations are now confined to Cosco Shipping/OOCL on the Epic service. Contact Bency Mathew at bencyvmathew@gmail.com .

Container Shipping News

Asia-Europe

Trans-Pacific

Container lines

CMA CGM ends existing Indian VSAs with Hapag-Lloyd, Maersk

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">The gathering will be closely watched by ocean carriers, shippers and container terminal operators in the US and Europe for signs that global unions are developing a coordinated cross-border "solidarity strike” strategy.</div>

The gathering will be closely watched by ocean carriers, shippers and container terminal operators in the US and Europe for signs that global unions are developing a coordinated cross-border "solidarity strike” strategy.

<div class="phx-topic">Dockworker trade unions from around the world will come together in Lisbon on Nov. 5 to confront “the threat of automation” facing ports and workers in the maritime industry. Described as “a call to action,” the gathering will be closely watched by ocean carriers, shippers and container terminal operators in the US and Europe for signs that global unions are developing a coordinated cross-border capability. Organized by the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) and coordinated by the International Dockworkers Council (IDC), the “People Over Profit: Anti-Automation Conference” will examine the future of labor in the maritime and port sector. “The event will bring together trade unions from around the world to confront the threat of automation driven by economic interests that prioritize profit over human employment,” the IDC said in a statement Friday. “This conference represents a unique opportunity to strengthen the defense of decent jobs, occupational safety and collective rights at a decisive moment for the future of maritime and port labor,” it added. The conference intends to develop a shared roadmap and a strategic plan to halt “the unregulated advance of these technological processes,” the IDC said. Coordinated cross-border "solidarity strikes” have yet to be seen among dockworker unions. Dutch union FNV Havens in February called on workers in terminals around Europe to refuse to handle ships diverted from Rotterdam’s Hutchison Ports’ Delta II terminal in solidarity with its striking dockers, but there were no reports of ships being refused service. <h3>Lightning rod for strike action </h3>Global container terminal operators have been accelerating moves to automate operations using fast-developing AI and 5G technology to handle increasing volumes of cargo while also facing a shortage of labor. Port automation and new technology have become a lightning rod for union action in the US. Last October, the ILA led <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/ila-usmx-agree-on-new-wage-offer-and-contract-extension-that-reopens-ports-5741882">a three-day strike at terminals across the US East and Gulf coasts</a> over wages and concerns around automation. The following month, talks between the ILA and the United States Maritime Alliance (USMX) on a new master contract broke down again due to the union’s concerns about <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/ila-targets-rail-mounted-gantry-cranes-amid-impasse-in-port-labor-talks-5874742">the use of semi-automated rail-mounted gantry cranes (RMGs)</a> at marine terminals. ILA President Harold Daggett said in a separate statement about the Lisbon conference that he was “proud to see this alliance of maritime workers come together in solidarity and strength.” “The automation agenda is creeping into every corner of our economy, from transportation to retail to logistics, and it threatens not only our jobs but the very fabric of our communities,” Daggett said. Automation is not as much of a hot button issue in Europe. Several ports are implementing different levels of automation, from semi- to fully automated terminals deploying automated guided vehicles, automated stacking cranes and remotely operated ship-to-shore cranes. Europe’s busiest container port of Antwerp-Bruges is investing heavily in automation, and while this was raising concerns with dockworker unions, Luc Arnouts, vice president of international relations and networks at the port, said deploying the technology was about being competitive. ”If I need eight people on a gang to do a job, then I do some automation I can do the job with four,” Arnouts said. “But you still need to put the eight men there so four will be sitting here in the corner, earning their money but not doing anything. “We feel that discussions [over automation] have become more mature with the unions understanding that keeping the eight people there will, in the end, lead to zero people working at that spot,” he added. Arnouts said there was a widespread shortage of labor “all over the place,” which would offset the loss of jobs caused by automation. Contact Greg Knowler at <a href="mailto:greg.knowler@spglobal.com">greg.knowler@spglobal.com</a>. </div>

Dockworker trade unions from around the world will come together in Lisbon on Nov. 5 to confront “the threat of automation” facing ports and workers in the maritime industry. Described as “a call to action,” the gathering will be closely watched by ocean carriers, shippers and container terminal operators in the US and Europe for signs that global unions are developing a coordinated cross-border capability. Organized by the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) and coordinated by the International Dockworkers Council (IDC), the “People Over Profit: Anti-Automation Conference” will examine the future of labor in the maritime and port sector. “The event will bring together trade unions from around the world to confront the threat of automation driven by economic interests that prioritize profit over human employment,” the IDC said in a statement Friday. “This conference represents a unique opportunity to strengthen the defense of decent jobs, occupational safety and collective rights at a decisive moment for the future of maritime and port labor,” it added. The conference intends to develop a shared roadmap and a strategic plan to halt “the unregulated advance of these technological processes,” the IDC said. Coordinated cross-border "solidarity strikes” have yet to be seen among dockworker unions. Dutch union FNV Havens in February called on workers in terminals around Europe to refuse to handle ships diverted from Rotterdam’s Hutchison Ports’ Delta II terminal in solidarity with its striking dockers, but there were no reports of ships being refused service. Lightning rod for strike action Global container terminal operators have been accelerating moves to automate operations using fast-developing AI and 5G technology to handle increasing volumes of cargo while also facing a shortage of labor. Port automation and new technology have become a lightning rod for union action in the US. Last October, the ILA led a three-day strike at terminals across the US East and Gulf coasts over wages and concerns around automation. The following month, talks between the ILA and the United States Maritime Alliance (USMX) on a new master contract broke down again due to the union’s concerns about the use of semi-automated rail-mounted gantry cranes (RMGs) at marine terminals. ILA President Harold Daggett said in a separate statement about the Lisbon conference that he was “proud to see this alliance of maritime workers come together in solidarity and strength.” “The automation agenda is creeping into every corner of our economy, from transportation to retail to logistics, and it threatens not only our jobs but the very fabric of our communities,” Daggett said. Automation is not as much of a hot button issue in Europe. Several ports are implementing different levels of automation, from semi- to fully automated terminals deploying automated guided vehicles, automated stacking cranes and remotely operated ship-to-shore cranes. Europe’s busiest container port of Antwerp-Bruges is investing heavily in automation, and while this was raising concerns with dockworker unions, Luc Arnouts, vice president of international relations and networks at the port, said deploying the technology was about being competitive. ”If I need eight people on a gang to do a job, then I do some automation I can do the job with four,” Arnouts said. “But you still need to put the eight men there so four will be sitting here in the corner, earning their money but not doing anything. “We feel that discussions [over automation] have become more mature with the unions understanding that keeping the eight people there will, in the end, lead to zero people working at that spot,” he added. Arnouts said there was a widespread shortage of labor “all over the place,” which would offset the loss of jobs caused by automation. Contact Greg Knowler at greg.knowler@spglobal.com .

Port News

Longshore labor

Global dockworker unions plan Lisbon gathering for anti-automation ‘call to action’

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">Trans-Pacific carriers are facing rapidly declining demand and freight rates on the trade lane as the frontloading that occurred during the 90-day pause on new US tariffs — now extended to Aug. 1 — has largely lost steam. </div>

Trans-Pacific carriers are facing rapidly declining demand and freight rates on the trade lane as the frontloading that occurred during the 90-day pause on new US tariffs — now extended to Aug. 1 — has largely lost steam.

<div class="phx-topic">Taiwan’s “Big Three” container lines saw their second-quarter revenues fall sharply from the first quarter, an early indicator of the worsening conditions facing ocean carriers as they report second-quarter and first-half results in the coming weeks. Evergreen Marine, Taiwan’s biggest container line, said its revenue fell 21% to $2.9 billion between April and June. Revenues at Yang Ming were 15% lower, while Wan Hai recorded a 6% decline in second-quarter revenue. The companies provided revenue data only in filings made to Taiwan’s stock exchange on Wednesday. They will not release complete first-half results until next month. Evergreen said its first-half revenues were unchanged compared with a year ago at $6.7 billion, while Yang Ming’s first-half revenue dropped 13% to $2.9 billion. Only Wan Hai Lines, strongly focused on the intra-Asia trade, saw revenue gains in the first half, with a 9.4% increase to $2.5 billion. Trans-Pacific carriers are facing rapidly declining demand and freight rates on the trade lane as the frontloading that occurred during the 90-day pause on new US tariffs — now extended to Aug. 1 — has largely lost steam. The Asia-US trade accounts for about 30% of total revenues for Evergreen and Yang Ming, according to company and Journal of Commerce data, while the figure is 26% for Wan Hai. Contact Keith Wallis at <a href="mailto:keithwallis@hotmail.com">keithwallis@hotmail.com</a>.</div>

Taiwan’s “Big Three” container lines saw their second-quarter revenues fall sharply from the first quarter, an early indicator of the worsening conditions facing ocean carriers as they report second-quarter and first-half results in the coming weeks. Evergreen Marine, Taiwan’s biggest container line, said its revenue fell 21% to $2.9 billion between April and June. Revenues at Yang Ming were 15% lower, while Wan Hai recorded a 6% decline in second-quarter revenue. The companies provided revenue data only in filings made to Taiwan’s stock exchange on Wednesday. They will not release complete first-half results until next month. Evergreen said its first-half revenues were unchanged compared with a year ago at $6.7 billion, while Yang Ming’s first-half revenue dropped 13% to $2.9 billion. Only Wan Hai Lines, strongly focused on the intra-Asia trade, saw revenue gains in the first half, with a 9.4% increase to $2.5 billion. Trans-Pacific carriers are facing rapidly declining demand and freight rates on the trade lane as the frontloading that occurred during the 90-day pause on new US tariffs — now extended to Aug. 1 — has largely lost steam. The Asia-US trade accounts for about 30% of total revenues for Evergreen and Yang Ming, according to company and Journal of Commerce data, while the figure is 26% for Wan Hai. Contact Keith Wallis at keithwallis@hotmail.com .

Taiwan’s ‘Big Three’ carriers see falling Q2 revenues as demand slump begins

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">Still, analyst Larry Gross suspects that the early strength seen in the first half of the year is substantially composed of volume that has been “borrowed” from a peak season that will be “late and tepid” as a result.</div>

Still, analyst Larry Gross suspects that the early strength seen in the first half of the year is substantially composed of volume that has been “borrowed” from a peak season that will be “late and tepid” as a result.

<div class="phx-topic">The numbers are in for the first half of 2025 from the Association of American Railroads (AAR). While the numbers lack the detail that can be gleaned from the Intermodal Association of North America’s (IANA’s) monthly data, the AAR numbers have the crucial advantage of timeliness. Despite all the trade turmoil, intermodal had a good first half of 2025. North American intermodal activity in the second quarter was up 1.4% versus the prior year and 3.6% higher for the first half. But intermodal was not fully immune from trade effects. North American volume over the past four weeks was down 2% from 2024 and US volume from the “Big Four” rails — BNSF, CSX, Norfolk Southern and UP — was down a bit more at 2.9%. <div class="wrapper-narrow float-right-element"><img src="/images/phoenix/6041537_0.1.jpg"></img></div>The two charts attempt to put the current numbers in a longer-term context. The first chart shows all the reporting railroads, while the second isolates the Big Four. In each, the blue line represents what used to be “normal,” the average volume for each of the 52 weeks of the year for the 10 years from 2010 to 2019. This predates the disruptive elements of the pandemic and the precision scheduled railroading (PSR) reforms. Results for the years 2023 and 2024 are presented, along with year-to-date results for 2025. One interesting aspect is that both 2023 and 2024 saw volume staying stronger for longer than the previous norm. On average, week 39 marked the peak during the 2010–19 period. But in 2023, the peak was in Week 42 and Weeks 48-50 were just about as strong. In 2024, the two strongest weeks were Week 49 and 50. Does this mark a “new normal” or are we just seeing a couple of years with special situations? Too soon to tell. This year has seen the inverse of the normal pattern, in that volume peaked in Week 6 and has been declining since. This can be seen most clearly in the US-specific chart. Frontloading related to tariffs has been in play. The impact of the imposition of 145% China tariffs can plainly be seen in Week 20, five weeks after they were imposed. The rebound from the rollback to 30% can be seen most recently in Week 26, some six weeks after the rollback was announced. I infer it is easier or quicker to put a hold on shipments, but restarting them takes a bit longer. <div class="wrapper-narrow"><dynamic-object type="jocchartid" resource-id="71a18721-0919-4ccd-b2fa-2c4c299e29b7"></dynamic-object></div>Week 27 will show the impacts of the Canada Day/July 4th holidays, so we won’t get a better picture of the size of the recovery until Week 28. Based on what ocean rates are doing, this “mini-surge” will be underwhelming in scope and duration. Conversely, the two Canadian railroads have been relatively strong of late. Canadian National has been up 3.3% over the past four weeks versus the prior year, and Canadian Pacific Kansas City was up 16.9% over the same period, albeit against particularly weak prior-year numbers. It certainly makes sense that we would not be seeing the same tariff-related gyrations north of the border. <h3>Peak season questions </h3>This leaves the question of peak season. Will we have one? And if we do, how strong will it be? Obviously, much depends on where tariffs land and the process by which the landing is achieved. This is, of course, unforecastable. The Trump administration has fulfilled my expectations in one sense by announcing that the 90-day tariff pause on essentially all trading partners has been extended to Aug 1. I would certainly not be surprised to see further slippage, but of course, I could just as easily be wrong about where our mercurial president takes us. <div class="wrapper-narrow"><dynamic-object type="jocchartid" resource-id="e92d2fdc-94d9-4806-9df7-bbbc2b6aed28"></dynamic-object></div>My sense is that importers are developing a certain level of fatigue with the constant drumbeat of new tariffs, rollbacks and extensions. Rather than taking costly actions to try and game the tariff timing, they are settling back and allowing things to unfold. I suspect that the early strength that we have seen in the first half is substantially composed of volume that has been “borrowed” from peak season. Therefore, my best guess is that if we have a peak, it will be late and tepid. Contact Larry Gross at <a href="mailto:lgross@intermodalindepth.com">lgross@intermodalindepth.com</a>.</div>

The numbers are in for the first half of 2025 from the Association of American Railroads (AAR). While the numbers lack the detail that can be gleaned from the Intermodal Association of North America’s (IANA’s) monthly data, the AAR numbers have the crucial advantage of timeliness. Despite all the trade turmoil, intermodal had a good first half of 2025. North American intermodal activity in the second quarter was up 1.4% versus the prior year and 3.6% higher for the first half. But intermodal was not fully immune from trade effects. North American volume over the past four weeks was down 2% from 2024 and US volume from the “Big Four” rails — BNSF, CSX, Norfolk Southern and UP — was down a bit more at 2.9%. The two charts attempt to put the current numbers in a longer-term context. The first chart shows all the reporting railroads, while the second isolates the Big Four. In each, the blue line represents what used to be “normal,” the average volume for each of the 52 weeks of the year for the 10 years from 2010 to 2019. This predates the disruptive elements of the pandemic and the precision scheduled railroading (PSR) reforms. Results for the years 2023 and 2024 are presented, along with year-to-date results for 2025. One interesting aspect is that both 2023 and 2024 saw volume staying stronger for longer than the previous norm. On average, week 39 marked the peak during the 2010–19 period. But in 2023, the peak was in Week 42 and Weeks 48-50 were just about as strong. In 2024, the two strongest weeks were Week 49 and 50. Does this mark a “new normal” or are we just seeing a couple of years with special situations? Too soon to tell. This year has seen the inverse of the normal pattern, in that volume peaked in Week 6 and has been declining since. This can be seen most clearly in the US-specific chart. Frontloading related to tariffs has been in play. The impact of the imposition of 145% China tariffs can plainly be seen in Week 20, five weeks after they were imposed. The rebound from the rollback to 30% can be seen most recently in Week 26, some six weeks after the rollback was announced. I infer it is easier or quicker to put a hold on shipments, but restarting them takes a bit longer. Week 27 will show the impacts of the Canada Day/July 4th holidays, so we won’t get a better picture of the size of the recovery until Week 28. Based on what ocean rates are doing, this “mini-surge” will be underwhelming in scope and duration. Conversely, the two Canadian railroads have been relatively strong of late. Canadian National has been up 3.3% over the past four weeks versus the prior year, and Canadian Pacific Kansas City was up 16.9% over the same period, albeit against particularly weak prior-year numbers. It certainly makes sense that we would not be seeing the same tariff-related gyrations north of the border. Peak season questions This leaves the question of peak season. Will we have one? And if we do, how strong will it be? Obviously, much depends on where tariffs land and the process by which the landing is achieved. This is, of course, unforecastable. The Trump administration has fulfilled my expectations in one sense by announcing that the 90-day tariff pause on essentially all trading partners has been extended to Aug 1. I would certainly not be surprised to see further slippage, but of course, I could just as easily be wrong about where our mercurial president takes us. My sense is that importers are developing a certain level of fatigue with the constant drumbeat of new tariffs, rollbacks and extensions. Rather than taking costly actions to try and game the tariff timing, they are settling back and allowing things to unfold. I suspect that the early strength that we have seen in the first half is substantially composed of volume that has been “borrowed” from peak season. Therefore, my best guess is that if we have a peak, it will be late and tepid. Contact Larry Gross at lgross@intermodalindepth.com .

North-American rail

Intermodal providers

Surface

North American intermodal notches solid first half despite trade turmoil

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The world of LTL is slow to embrace change. Business anachronisms permeate current supply chain processes. These vestiges of the way things used to work define the LTL freight transportation procurement process of many modern shippers.David Knuth, logistics specialist at IEWC, a global supplier of cable and wire based in Wisconsin, is happy to have modernized the RFP process, automating the entire LTL bidding procedure with Bid$ense, SMC³’s automated truckload and LTL freight transportation sourcing solution. But when prompted, he can still recall what once was.In his previous job, a large part of his duties were consumed by creating an intermodal bid package for carriers. In a spreadsheet, Knuth detailed the company’s volumes lane by lane, taking care to delete any errant keystrokes or misleading data. He would then email out the information to each carrier, taking time to respond to detailed technical questions about the spreadsheet data. Finally, he had to compile all the results, create an algorithm that would compare the carriers on each lane, and award the business.“It was a huge undertaking. It took about four months to do,” Knuth said of the old process. “It was almost a full-time job for that part of the year, every year.”In his new job at IEWC, he sat down with Bid$ense on day one and was amazed at the capabilities. Knuth had never before used a bid tool. SMC³’s latest versions of Bid$ense automate the process even further, taking truckload and LTL RFPs entirely online. The tool draws on RFP best-practices protocols to streamline the bidding communication process, enabling bidding carriers to respond accurately and promptly to shipper requests. The solution also does all the distribution work automatically, electronically submitting shipper bid data to carriers based on their actual service capabilities and performance records. Carriers are alerted with timely prompts for RFP deliverables, so shippers aren’t waiting by the phone for responses.Another benefit of automating the process is the data-cleansing assistance. When Knuth sent spreadsheets to carriers, data errors might cloud the bidding process; he might have to resend data or simply accept a price that did not truly reflect the costs of doing business. Data cleansing is incredibly beneficial, he said.The spreadsheet technique also made bidding analysis an onerous task. Since Bid$ense automates and streamlines the entire RFP process, intensive examination is now simple. SMC³ knows that each bid has more than one best outcome. With uniform responses from each carrier, shippers can quickly rank results and create an unlimited quantity of what-if scenarios to make the optimal procurement decision.Jesse Burnett of Central Garden &amp; Pet experiences many of the same benefits. Founded in 1980, Central Garden &amp; Pet has spent the last three decades growing from a small garden supply company to a provider of a range of products from dog chews and bird seed to soil supplements and natural insecticides. For much of its life, the company shipped these disparate goods via LTL and truckload carriers to retailers throughout the country, relying on each business unit to negotiate directly with their freight transportation providers. This arrangement worked fairly well for a small company, but as Central Garden &amp; Pet expanded, leadership decided to consolidate decision making.Burnett helped centralize the transportation decision making in 2015 with SMC³’s Bid$ense. Before Bid$ense, every business unit operated independently as far as negotiating with carriers.“There were a lot of different things just floating around,” he said. “We didn’t have master agreements in place; no national pricing at all. The pricing from carriers was just all over the place, depending on where you were.”The transformations he saw with Bid$ense were immediate. Burnett has been using the tool about every other year since its implementation at the company. Central Garden and Pet’s $19.6 million 2019 LTL bid saved the company just more than 9 percent when compared to its historical average. For Burnett, though, bid automation extends far beyond savings.“We knew that we weren’t getting the best pricing offer from our carriers just because nothing was centralized,” he continued. “We knew that if we combined everything from all these business units and paired it with one corporate offering, then it would drive some cost benefit with it.”When the company initially decided to centralize bid procurement, executives researched a number of different methodologies and technologies. In the end, though, Burnett found that Bid$ense was both widespread and well known, and that his carrier partners already knew how to use the application. Burnett also highlighted the data-cleansing process as a major benefit, saying the rigorous process ensures that carriers always return the best price.“It definitely has helped drive savings,” he said. “Any time you go out there and you drive that competitiveness with the carriers and they know they’re in a bid environment, it seems to sharpen their pencils.”Transportation procurement is an integral part of the modern supply chain. With Bid$ense, shippers can develop a strategic implementation plan that saves them time and money, but also helps them create strong relationships with their carrier partners. These carriers appreciate the solution’s data-cleansing process; when carriers receive a complete shipment history and future volume forecast, they don’t have to guess on pricing. Carriers that receive more data from shippers get a complete picture of that shipper’s freight, allowing them to accurately plan instead of simply preparing for the worst-case scenario. Clean data presented through an automated system can lead to both bigger shipment savings and a lasting partnership between carrier and customer.Whether customers are looking to streamline over-the-road transportation bidding by automating the RFP process or create an entirely new, centralized sourcing process, Bid$ense has the analytical horsepower to get the job done.SMC³ 2020 Customer Case Study

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Shippers save money, time with automated transportation bidding tools

If there’s one immutable truth in the world of logistics, it’s this: LTL is an inherently complex form of transportation. Tariffs, rates, DIM weights, transit times — it’s enough to confuse even seasoned logistics professionals. The solution to this knowledge gap has historically been on-the-job training or university supply chain education, but for a variety of reasons there is now a pressing need for third-party, remote LTL training that prepares logistics workers for transportation success. Global Scope Can Overlook Local Intricacies In the past, professionals looking to move into a supply chain career learned about the basics of supply chain from universities. However, many of these college supply chain programs are now global in scope, focusing on worldwide supply chain management instead of the intricacies of specialized domestic transportation. And even these programs, which used to be widespread, are becoming less common. LTL is not an industry of broad-brush strokes; supply chain professionals really need a pointillistic understanding of the logistics of LTL in order to excel in the industry. Accelerating Need for Dedicated LTL Education This lack of specified training put the onus on employers to prepare new hires with the LTL knowledge needed to do their jobs. Dedicated LTL study is a necessity, not a luxury. At the same time, changes in LTL and the broader supply chain world are accelerating. The reliance on e-commerce has ballooned since the start of the pandemic, and last-mile LTL shipments and related e-commerce strains on the supply chain won’t diminish once social distancing abates. That genie isn’t going back into the bottle. So supply chain employers need logistics workers that are fully versed in all aspects of the industry, ready to solve unique shipping and delivery problems based on their extensive supply chain knowledge But why care about LTL? It’s been reported that some shippers in today’s world are no longer concerned with what mode is used to ship their goods. A Multimodal Approach Ensures On-Time Delivery This mode agnosticism means supply chain stakeholders have to be well versed in all modes of transportation. As unforeseen weather events and other disruptions, such as protests, become more common, savvy logistics employees will need to be armed with familiarity of all modes, not just the most popular, to ensure that freight is delivered on time, without damage, and in the most financially expedient way possible. Offerings like SMC³’s LTL online education courses cover a wide range of topics from LTL basics and operations to more advanced concepts like pricing analytics and transportation law. The company also has plans to continually refresh content, adding new expert presenters and taking the feedback of students to make the courses even better as time goes on. Learn more about&nbsp;<a href="https://logisticstrainingcenter.com/smc3-courses/" rel="noreferrer" class="joc_admin__link">SMC³’s LTL Online Education program</a>&nbsp;and view the 2021 hybrid schedule, featuring live industry experts,&nbsp;<a href="https://www.smc3.com/onlinelearning2021/" rel="noreferrer" class="joc_admin__link">here.</a>

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