<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">Feb. 16, 1988 Baltic International Freight Futures ExchangePrev.Close High </div>

Feb. 16, 1988 Baltic International Freight Futures ExchangePrev.Close High

<div>Feb. 16, 1988Baltic International Freight Futures ExchangePrev.Close High Low Vol. CloseApr. 1570.0 1570.0 1547.0 126 1551.0July 1415.0 1415.0 1400.0 82 1403.0Oct. 1430.0 1430.0 1415.0 54 1419.0Total sales, 262 contracts.*International Futures Exchange (Bermuda), Ltd.*Quotes as of 2:00 p.m. Prev.Bid Ask Last High Low SttlngApr. 1569.0 1589.0 1570.0 -- -- 1570.0July 1400.0 1425.0 1422.0 -- -- 1422.0Oct. -- 1432.0 1437.0 -- -- 1437.0Jan. -- -- 1405.0 -- -- 1405.0Vol. 0, Prev. Vol. 2.</div>...

Feb. 16, 1988 Baltic International Freight Futures ExchangePrev. Close High Low Vol. Close Apr. 1570.0 1570.0 1547.0 126 1551.0 July 1415.0 1415.0 1400.0 82 1403.0 Oct. 1430.0 1430.0 1415.0 54 1419.0 Total sales, 262 contracts. *International Futures Exchange (Bermuda), Ltd. *Quotes as of 2:00 p.m. Prev. Bid Ask Last High Low Sttlng Apr. 1569.0 1589.0 1570.0 -- -- 1570.0 July 1400.0 1425.0 1422.0 -- -- 1422.0 Oct. -- 1432.0 1437.0 -- -- 1437.0 Jan. -- -- 1405.0 -- -- 1405.0 Vol. 0, Prev. Vol. 2.

Maritime

FREIGHT RATE FUTURES

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">Tariff uncertainty, weakening demand and an abundance of capacity are hanging over the container shipping industry, the global bank said in a report Thursday. </div>

Tariff uncertainty, weakening demand and an abundance of capacity are hanging over the container shipping industry, the global bank said in a report Thursday.

Feature image

<div class="phx-topic">Ocean carriers can expect a sharp decline in earnings over the next three years as overcapacity potentially triggers “an aggressive price war,” with 2027 representing the bottom of the profitability “trough,” HSBC said Thursday in its latest container shipping report. Transportation analysts at the global bank indicated in the report that while carriers will remain profitable through the period, it will be nowhere near the three record years of 2021, 2022 and 2024. ”We expect tariff uncertainties to weigh on demand from [the second half of 2025] and bring the focus back to overcapacity and earnings downside,” the report stated. HSBC is expecting a 45% year-over-year <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/global-uncertainty-to-erode-ocean-carrier-profits-in-2025-6016400">decline in profits for the container shipping</a> industry this year, a steeper 61% decline in profits in 2026 and a further 10% slide in 2027. No profit amounts were provided. “We expect profits for the sector through 2027, but an aggressive price war by carriers could drive losses,” the bank said. Carriers earned close to $60 billion in operating profits in 2024, which followed a $1.4 billion loss the previous year. Pandemic-driven profits in 2022 hit a record $208 billion, beating the previous record of $110 billion set in 2021. Fast-declining rates will impact earnings over the next three years, with HSBC expecting the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) to drop by 35% in 2025 and 2026 and another 15% in 2027. <h3>Profit-slashing forecasts </h3>HSBC’s prediction is the latest in a series of profit-slashing forecasts from industry analysts as momentum is expected to slow on the trans-Pacific after existing tariff reprieves end and concerns grow of a destocking cycle in the US. The 90-day pause on global tariffs by the US ends on July 9, with a similar pause on China tariffs expiring Aug. 14. Among nine publicly traded ocean carriers, revenue for 2025 is expected to reach $138.2 billion, according to Capital IQ Estimates, down from $155.5 billion in 2024. Capital IQ is a sister company of the Journal of Commerce within S&amp;P Global. Drewry earlier this month outlined its profit forecast for carriers, expecting operating profit for the industry to fall to $20 billion this year, down from over $50 billion in 2024. Hapag-Lloyd, Evergreen and Yang Ming have maintained their 2025 profit forecasts, while Maersk, HMM and Ocean Network Express have cut their full-year guidance because of the uncertainty surrounding tariffs. “Frontloading in the trans-Pacific on tariff concerns buoyed first-quarter earnings, while a tariff pause-led cargo rush drove a 73% surge in the SCFI during the second quarter,” the HSBC report noted. Spot rates from Asia to the US West Coast peaked on June 6 at $6,040 per FEU but have fallen 55% since then to $2,700 per FEU as of Wednesday, down 16% on the week, according to Platts, a Journal of Commerce sister company within S&amp;P Global. <h3>Red Sea diversions elevate rates </h3>Rates on the Asia-Europe trade lane have held at elevated levels because of the ongoing longer transits around southern Africa to avoid potential Houthi militant attacks in the Red Sea, HSBC said. Following the latest Middle East conflict between Israel and Iran, those diversions will persist until at least mid-2026, according to the bank. ”We expect effective [capacity] supply growth of 6.5% in 2026 and around 10% in 2027, against nominal fleet growth of 3% to 4%, due to unwinding of Red Sea rerouting and demand growth of just 2% in 2025-27,” the report said. <div class="wrapper-narrow"><dynamic-object type="jocchartid" resource-id="69b3a8ec-2292-4049-b638-cc81b01d32ad"></dynamic-object></div>Shipping association Bimco was less optimistic about a return of commercial shipping to Red Sea transits next year. “We expect the supply-demand balance to weaken only slightly in 2025 and 2026 as our ship demand growth forecast now excludes a return to normal Red Sea and Suez Canal routings,” Niels Rasmussen, the group’s chief shipping analyst, wrote in a report this week. Bimco has forecast the global fleet will grow to 33.6 million TEUs by the end of 2026, up 2.8 million TEUs in 24 months, although ship scrapping is expected to increase as market conditions worsen. Contact Greg Knowler at <a href="mailto:greg.knowler@spglobal.com">greg.knowler@spglobal.com</a>. </div>

Ocean carriers can expect a sharp decline in earnings over the next three years as overcapacity potentially triggers “an aggressive price war,” with 2027 representing the bottom of the profitability “trough,” HSBC said Thursday in its latest container shipping report. Transportation analysts at the global bank indicated in the report that while carriers will remain profitable through the period, it will be nowhere near the three record years of 2021, 2022 and 2024. ”We expect tariff uncertainties to weigh on demand from [the second half of 2025] and bring the focus back to overcapacity and earnings downside,” the report stated. HSBC is expecting a 45% year-over-year decline in profits for the container shipping industry this year, a steeper 61% decline in profits in 2026 and a further 10% slide in 2027. No profit amounts were provided. “We expect profits for the sector through 2027, but an aggressive price war by carriers could drive losses,” the bank said. Carriers earned close to $60 billion in operating profits in 2024, which followed a $1.4 billion loss the previous year. Pandemic-driven profits in 2022 hit a record $208 billion, beating the previous record of $110 billion set in 2021. Fast-declining rates will impact earnings over the next three years, with HSBC expecting the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) to drop by 35% in 2025 and 2026 and another 15% in 2027. Profit-slashing forecasts HSBC’s prediction is the latest in a series of profit-slashing forecasts from industry analysts as momentum is expected to slow on the trans-Pacific after existing tariff reprieves end and concerns grow of a destocking cycle in the US. The 90-day pause on global tariffs by the US ends on July 9, with a similar pause on China tariffs expiring Aug. 14. Among nine publicly traded ocean carriers, revenue for 2025 is expected to reach $138.2 billion, according to Capital IQ Estimates, down from $155.5 billion in 2024. Capital IQ is a sister company of the Journal of Commerce within S&P Global. Drewry earlier this month outlined its profit forecast for carriers, expecting operating profit for the industry to fall to $20 billion this year, down from over $50 billion in 2024. Hapag-Lloyd, Evergreen and Yang Ming have maintained their 2025 profit forecasts, while Maersk, HMM and Ocean Network Express have cut their full-year guidance because of the uncertainty surrounding tariffs. “Frontloading in the trans-Pacific on tariff concerns buoyed first-quarter earnings, while a tariff pause-led cargo rush drove a 73% surge in the SCFI during the second quarter,” the HSBC report noted. Spot rates from Asia to the US West Coast peaked on June 6 at $6,040 per FEU but have fallen 55% since then to $2,700 per FEU as of Wednesday, down 16% on the week, according to Platts, a Journal of Commerce sister company within S&P Global. Red Sea diversions elevate rates Rates on the Asia-Europe trade lane have held at elevated levels because of the ongoing longer transits around southern Africa to avoid potential Houthi militant attacks in the Red Sea, HSBC said. Following the latest Middle East conflict between Israel and Iran, those diversions will persist until at least mid-2026, according to the bank. ”We expect effective [capacity] supply growth of 6.5% in 2026 and around 10% in 2027, against nominal fleet growth of 3% to 4%, due to unwinding of Red Sea rerouting and demand growth of just 2% in 2025-27,” the report said. Shipping association Bimco was less optimistic about a return of commercial shipping to Red Sea transits next year. “We expect the supply-demand balance to weaken only slightly in 2025 and 2026 as our ship demand growth forecast now excludes a return to normal Red Sea and Suez Canal routings,” Niels Rasmussen, the group’s chief shipping analyst, wrote in a report this week. Bimco has forecast the global fleet will grow to 33.6 million TEUs by the end of 2026, up 2.8 million TEUs in 24 months, although ship scrapping is expected to increase as market conditions worsen. Contact Greg Knowler at greg.knowler@spglobal.com .

Container Shipping News

Ocean carriers face three-year decline in profitability: HSBC

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">A new service from Green Tide Logistics will connect Veracruz to Philadelphia in five to six days via truck and multi-purpose vessels capable of handling 1,200 to 1,700 TEUs. </div>

A new service from Green Tide Logistics will connect Veracruz to Philadelphia in five to six days via truck and multi-purpose vessels capable of handling 1,200 to 1,700 TEUs.

<div class="phx-topic">A Mexico City-based logistics company will launch a twice-monthly combined ocean-trucking service between Mexico’s Gulf Coast and the US East Coast in late July, offering shippers a way to avoid cross-border surface delays and <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/congress-makes-fresh-attempt-to-target-cargo-theft-in-us-5982118">security concerns</a>. The service by Green Tide Logistics will connect Veracruz to Philadelphia in five to six days via truck and multi-purpose vessels (MPVs) capable of handling 1,200 to 1,700 TEUs. Via truck only, the route typically takes up to 10 days. Green Tide CEO Hans Schriwer said the service will start July 28 with a single time-chartered MPV; the company has plans to expand to a weekly service using two vessels in the fourth quarter. “There’s huge potential in terms of steering stuff away from nearly all truck, to a combination of truck and ocean,” Schriwer told the Journal of Commerce. “With nearshoring, we felt that the timing now was appropriate to push this through.” The service will handle inland Mexico via truck and then move cargo out of Tuxpan and Coatzacoalcos via ocean to Philadelphia. Once in the US, Schriwer said customers can choose truck or rail to get the shipment to its destination. The Green Tide offering is the latest service aimed at tapping the shifting US-Mexico ocean trade — which represents less than half a percent of total US ocean imports — even though Mexico-to-US ocean volumes have shrunk considerably since 2019. Most recently, US-based ocean carrier Crowley started a three-day ocean service from Tuxpan to Gulfport, Mississippi, in May. That came on the heels of another <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/crowley-cn-strike-mexico-intermodal-deal-through-port-of-mobile-5220379">multimodal Mexico-US Crowley service</a> launched in 2023. <h3>Serving a niche market </h3>The Green Tide vessels will move forty-foot-equivalent units, twenty-foot-equivalent units, 53-foot containers, refrigerated containers and bulk options, Schriwer said. According to PIERS, a sister company of the Journal of Commerce within S&amp;P Global, the top commodities moved via ocean on the lane so far this year have been beer, liqueurs, watermelons, ethyl alcohol and coffee. Mexico shipped 2,749 TEUs via ocean into the East Coast of North America (ECNA) in May, according to the most recent PIERS data available. That marked a 26% month-over-month increase but a 29% reduction on the year. Overall, the ocean trade has shrunk 51% since May 2019, when ECNA received 5,619 TEUs from Mexico. Despite the small market, Schriwer said there is growing demand for the Mexico-US service. According to the United States Trade Representative, the US imported almost $506 billion worth of cargo from Mexico last year, up 6.4% from 2023 — mostly via truck. Contact Laura Robb at <a href="mailto:Laura.Robb@spglobal.com">laura.robb@spglobal.com</a>.  </div>

A Mexico City-based logistics company will launch a twice-monthly combined ocean-trucking service between Mexico’s Gulf Coast and the US East Coast in late July, offering shippers a way to avoid cross-border surface delays and security concerns . The service by Green Tide Logistics will connect Veracruz to Philadelphia in five to six days via truck and multi-purpose vessels (MPVs) capable of handling 1,200 to 1,700 TEUs. Via truck only, the route typically takes up to 10 days. Green Tide CEO Hans Schriwer said the service will start July 28 with a single time-chartered MPV; the company has plans to expand to a weekly service using two vessels in the fourth quarter. “There’s huge potential in terms of steering stuff away from nearly all truck, to a combination of truck and ocean,” Schriwer told the Journal of Commerce. “With nearshoring, we felt that the timing now was appropriate to push this through.” The service will handle inland Mexico via truck and then move cargo out of Tuxpan and Coatzacoalcos via ocean to Philadelphia. Once in the US, Schriwer said customers can choose truck or rail to get the shipment to its destination. The Green Tide offering is the latest service aimed at tapping the shifting US-Mexico ocean trade — which represents less than half a percent of total US ocean imports — even though Mexico-to-US ocean volumes have shrunk considerably since 2019. Most recently, US-based ocean carrier Crowley started a three-day ocean service from Tuxpan to Gulfport, Mississippi, in May. That came on the heels of another multimodal Mexico-US Crowley service launched in 2023. Serving a niche market The Green Tide vessels will move forty-foot-equivalent units, twenty-foot-equivalent units, 53-foot containers, refrigerated containers and bulk options, Schriwer said. According to PIERS, a sister company of the Journal of Commerce within S&P Global, the top commodities moved via ocean on the lane so far this year have been beer, liqueurs, watermelons, ethyl alcohol and coffee. Mexico shipped 2,749 TEUs via ocean into the East Coast of North America (ECNA) in May, according to the most recent PIERS data available. That marked a 26% month-over-month increase but a 29% reduction on the year. Overall, the ocean trade has shrunk 51% since May 2019, when ECNA received 5,619 TEUs from Mexico. Despite the small market, Schriwer said there is growing demand for the Mexico-US service. According to the United States Trade Representative, the US imported almost $506 billion worth of cargo from Mexico last year, up 6.4% from 2023 — mostly via truck. Contact Laura Robb at laura.robb@spglobal.com . 

Container lines

Forwarding

Mexico-US ocean market expands amid growing nearshoring interest

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">The digital solution will be available for US imports this week and is set to roll out globally in August.</div>

The digital solution will be available for US imports this week and is set to roll out globally in August.

<div class="phx-topic">Maersk’s 6 million customs declarations around the world and commercial data from across its network are being used to power a new centralized AI-powered approach to customs and tariff management that will launch this week. The “Maersk Trade &amp; Tariff Studio” will be available from June 28 for cargo imported into the US with a global rollout scheduled for August, said Lars Karlsson, the carrier’s global head of trade and customs consulting. “Today’s environment is defined by unpredictability, with newly imposed and suddenly postponed tariffs creating what many of our customers describe as ‘tariff chaos,’” he told the Journal of Commerce Wednesday. While Karlsson acknowledged the wave of development in AI-powered trade tools that are becoming available from many sources, he said the need for scale in this area should not be underestimated. “The problem is how you train these new facilities for an area like trade,” the Maersk executive said. “You can create the algorithm for AI, but if it’s not using vast amounts of real and verified, qualified trade data, it doesn’t learn as fast. If you have 6 million custom decorations around the world in all territories like Maersk, that gives us an advantage to train our AI models much quicker than others.” A host of companies are piling into this arena. In the past six months, AI-focused <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/ai-continues-its-advance-across-truckload-fleets-drayage-6004118">logistics technology startups Optimal Dynamics</a>, Augment, FreightHero, Freightmate AI, Vooma and HappyRobot have all landed venture funding rounds. And virtually every <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/incumbents-upstarts-strive-for-lead-in-agentic-ai-arms-race-5943100">established logistics software vendor</a> or tech-focused intermediary, including <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/next-phase-of-digital-forwarding-on-collision-course-with-ai-revolution-5952015">Flexport</a>, Shipwell, PortPro, FourKites and project44, has marketed itself as having agentic tools that make its products more usable. <h3>Decentralized approach is unsustainable </h3>Karlsson noted that global companies relied on 30 or 40 different local customs brokers based in as many ports or countries, resulting in fragmented data, limited visibility and unnecessarily paid duties. “This decentralized approach is increasingly unsustainable in a world where tariff levels are not only higher but also much more volatile,” he said. “We know from studies around the world by various research institutes that companies were, on average, overpaying 5% to 6% in customs duties even before the ‘Liberation Day’ tariff announcements.” Maersk data shows that 20% of shipment delays are caused by poor customs preparation, and only 50% to 55% of trade that is eligible for existing Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) actually use the respective FTAs. Karlsson said although more than 650 FTAs exist, they are complex, and companies often don’t have the resources to fully understand the application of details at origin and destination, leaving significant savings untapped. <h3>Providing a global view </h3>Karlsson outlined the processes driving Maersk’s new AI platform. It combines AI-powered tariff engineering and optimization, ensuring the correct application of over 6,000 product codes and 20,000-plus sub-codes. “The 6,000 harmonized product codes that regulate the tariffs are all published by the World Customs Organization, taken into national customs administrations and applied to the specific code in that country,” Karlsson said. While the tariff books are accessible to the public, a company will have a broker in each country working with the local tariffs only, while Maersk’s AI tool has a global view of tariffs. Maersk Trade &amp; Tariff Studio offers upstream compliance risk screening that tackles delays, detentions and penalties, and real time updates from data partners, as well as Maersk’s network of 2,700 customs experts across the globe, all feeding tariff and regulation changes into a unified system. On top of coping with tariffs, another challenge for companies is compliance with a growing number of complex regulations, from product safety and labor standards to upcoming environmental mandates such as the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) and deforestation regulations. Non-compliance can result in significant fines and market bans. “We scan for regulations, including sanctions, as early as possible in the supply chain to avoid customers ending up at the border being detained, delayed or penalized for non-compliance,” Karlsson told the Journal of Commerce. “Customs declaration is one of the most complex areas in global logistics,” he said. “But if done right, companies will be saving money, saving problems and sleeping better at night.” Contact Greg Knowler at <a href="mailto:greg.knowler@spglobal.com">greg.knowler@spglobal.com</a>. </div>

Maersk’s 6 million customs declarations around the world and commercial data from across its network are being used to power a new centralized AI-powered approach to customs and tariff management that will launch this week. The “Maersk Trade & Tariff Studio” will be available from June 28 for cargo imported into the US with a global rollout scheduled for August, said Lars Karlsson, the carrier’s global head of trade and customs consulting. “Today’s environment is defined by unpredictability, with newly imposed and suddenly postponed tariffs creating what many of our customers describe as ‘tariff chaos,’” he told the Journal of Commerce Wednesday. While Karlsson acknowledged the wave of development in AI-powered trade tools that are becoming available from many sources, he said the need for scale in this area should not be underestimated. “The problem is how you train these new facilities for an area like trade,” the Maersk executive said. “You can create the algorithm for AI, but if it’s not using vast amounts of real and verified, qualified trade data, it doesn’t learn as fast. If you have 6 million custom decorations around the world in all territories like Maersk, that gives us an advantage to train our AI models much quicker than others.” A host of companies are piling into this arena. In the past six months, AI-focused logistics technology startups Optimal Dynamics , Augment, FreightHero, Freightmate AI, Vooma and HappyRobot have all landed venture funding rounds. And virtually every established logistics software vendor or tech-focused intermediary, including Flexport , Shipwell, PortPro, FourKites and project44, has marketed itself as having agentic tools that make its products more usable. Decentralized approach is unsustainable Karlsson noted that global companies relied on 30 or 40 different local customs brokers based in as many ports or countries, resulting in fragmented data, limited visibility and unnecessarily paid duties. “This decentralized approach is increasingly unsustainable in a world where tariff levels are not only higher but also much more volatile,” he said. “We know from studies around the world by various research institutes that companies were, on average, overpaying 5% to 6% in customs duties even before the ‘Liberation Day’ tariff announcements.” Maersk data shows that 20% of shipment delays are caused by poor customs preparation, and only 50% to 55% of trade that is eligible for existing Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) actually use the respective FTAs. Karlsson said although more than 650 FTAs exist, they are complex, and companies often don’t have the resources to fully understand the application of details at origin and destination, leaving significant savings untapped. Providing a global view Karlsson outlined the processes driving Maersk’s new AI platform. It combines AI-powered tariff engineering and optimization, ensuring the correct application of over 6,000 product codes and 20,000-plus sub-codes. “The 6,000 harmonized product codes that regulate the tariffs are all published by the World Customs Organization, taken into national customs administrations and applied to the specific code in that country,” Karlsson said. While the tariff books are accessible to the public, a company will have a broker in each country working with the local tariffs only, while Maersk’s AI tool has a global view of tariffs. Maersk Trade & Tariff Studio offers upstream compliance risk screening that tackles delays, detentions and penalties, and real time updates from data partners, as well as Maersk’s network of 2,700 customs experts across the globe, all feeding tariff and regulation changes into a unified system. On top of coping with tariffs, another challenge for companies is compliance with a growing number of complex regulations, from product safety and labor standards to upcoming environmental mandates such as the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) and deforestation regulations. Non-compliance can result in significant fines and market bans. “We scan for regulations, including sanctions, as early as possible in the supply chain to avoid customers ending up at the border being detained, delayed or penalized for non-compliance,” Karlsson told the Journal of Commerce. “Customs declaration is one of the most complex areas in global logistics,” he said. “But if done right, companies will be saving money, saving problems and sleeping better at night.” Contact Greg Knowler at greg.knowler@spglobal.com .

Transport, Trade and Regulation News

Logistics Technology News

Maersk launches AI customs tool to tackle rising regulatory chaos

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">Peak shipping season began early on both trade lanes, but the advancing of US orders from China will hit trans-Pacific demand in the second half of the year.</div>

Peak shipping season began early on both trade lanes, but the advancing of US orders from China will hit trans-Pacific demand in the second half of the year.

<div class="phx-topic">China-US trade in the second half of 2025 will be characterized by sharply falling rates and volume as frontloading momentum peters out and shippers sit with bloated inventories, while the demand outlook for Asia-Europe is far brighter, shipping analysts say. Just two weeks remain before the 90-day pause on global tariffs by the US ends on July 9, with a similar pause on China tariffs expiring Aug. 14. Although the outcome of Washington’s negotiations with its trading partners remains uncertain, declining demand on the trans-Pacific is expected whatever the result of talks. “Demand is expected to drop significantly, even if lower tariffs continue after the 90-day pause,” said Peter Sand, chief analyst at rate benchmarking platform Xeneta. “Shippers have been frontloading imports throughout 2024 and early 2025 so inventories will be brimming once the current cargo rush is over.” Ports along the US West Coast are due to experience a short-lived cargo surge over the next few weeks, which may slow the ongoing decline in spot rates in the eastbound trans-Pacific. The rate from Asia to the West Coast as of Tuesday was $2,800 per FEU, down 13% on the week and 54% lower than the recent high of $6,040 per FEU on June 6, according to Platts, a Journal of Commerce sister company within S&amp;P Global. <div class="wrapper-narrow"><dynamic-object type="jocchartid" resource-id="bea6613f-87e3-42b2-84e2-aa2fd6f34f8f"></dynamic-object></div>Niels Rasmussen, chief shipping analyst at Bimco, said when the 90-day pause on tariffs ends, US importers will turn to the inventories they built up through frontloading in the first half of the year. “We expect that US import volume growth will suffer under the increased import tariffs and weaker economic growth,” Rasmussen noted in Bimco’s latest container shipping outlook released Wednesday. “We therefore estimate that the year-to-date frontloading of cargo will result in an equal downturn in imports during the second half of 2025,” he added. “In fact, we expect the downturn to be even more pronounced as the 55% tariff on Chinese goods gets implemented and the reciprocal tariff increases announced in April are implemented following the 90-day delay.” The import tariff for China went as high as 145% but was later lowered to 30% for the 90-day period ending Aug. 14. Last week, President Donald Trump wrote on his social media platform that an agreement had been reached with China that will set the tariff applied on Chinese imports to 55%, although that has yet to be officially confirmed. A trade agreement has been reached between the US and UK that will lower the general tariff level for imports from the UK to 10%. And although negotiations are continuing with the European Union, it is likely the EU will face a 10% baseline tariff on all its US exports. Bimco has adjusted its 2025 volume growth forecast for the European and Mediterranean region upward from 3.5% to 6% to reflect the stronger-than-expected year-to-date volumes. “Volume to the region grew 7.3% during the first four months of the year and economic conditions are improving with lower inflation, lower interest rates, lower unemployment than before COVID and a stronger euro all contributing to a brighter outlook,” Rasmussen said. “In the EU, consumers appear significantly better off as retail volumes have seen robust growth compared to a very weak second half of 2024, and consumer confidence remains mostly stable,” he added. <h3>Rates flatten on Asia-North Europe </h3>The peak season on Asia-Europe has begun and spot rates of $2,842 per FEU are up 49% since May 31, according to Xeneta. Rates have flattened out following the June freight-all-kinds (FAK) increases, but ocean carriers are planning to significantly reduce the deployed capacity on Asia-North Europe in August. If demand remains strong, rates are sure to rise. Data from visibility provider eeSea shows that the expected capacity on Asia-North Europe will fall by 90,000 TEUs in August from July, with blank capacity up 25% to 105,000 TEUs. <div class="wrapper-narrow"><dynamic-object type="jocchartid" resource-id="6a5146cf-79d1-41fa-85fb-c1916fc625ac"></dynamic-object></div>Rasmussen noted that the conflict between Israel and Iran may have further delayed when ships will return to normal Red Sea and Suez Canal routings, and the Bimco outlook assumes no change in the diversions around southern Africa. When ships do return to Suez transits, Bimco is forecasting a 10% reduction in ship demand because of the shorter sailing distances. S&amp;P Global Market Intelligence has not recorded a Houthi militant attack on commercial shipping in the Red Sea since Dec. 10, 2024. While an apparent ceasefire was agreed to between the Houthis and the US in May, the US Department of Defense says the USS Harry S. Truman aircraft carrier strike group intercepted approximately 160 Houthi drone and missile attacks over its five-month deployment in the Red Sea that ended in May, an indication of the resilience of Houthi attack capabilities. “Houthi attacks on US-affiliated shipping are likely to resume in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden at volumes probably not exceeding previous attacks and maintaining a severe risk to all vessels in transit due to uncertainties around Houthi targeting selection,” Jack Kennedy, head of Middle East and North Africa country risk at S&amp;P Global Market Intelligence, wrote in a report this week. S&amp;P Global is the parent company of the Journal of Commerce. Contact Greg Knowler at <a href="mailto:greg.knowler@spglobal.com">greg.knowler@spglobal.com</a>. </div>

China-US trade in the second half of 2025 will be characterized by sharply falling rates and volume as frontloading momentum peters out and shippers sit with bloated inventories, while the demand outlook for Asia-Europe is far brighter, shipping analysts say. Just two weeks remain before the 90-day pause on global tariffs by the US ends on July 9, with a similar pause on China tariffs expiring Aug. 14. Although the outcome of Washington’s negotiations with its trading partners remains uncertain, declining demand on the trans-Pacific is expected whatever the result of talks. “Demand is expected to drop significantly, even if lower tariffs continue after the 90-day pause,” said Peter Sand, chief analyst at rate benchmarking platform Xeneta. “Shippers have been frontloading imports throughout 2024 and early 2025 so inventories will be brimming once the current cargo rush is over.” Ports along the US West Coast are due to experience a short-lived cargo surge over the next few weeks, which may slow the ongoing decline in spot rates in the eastbound trans-Pacific. The rate from Asia to the West Coast as of Tuesday was $2,800 per FEU, down 13% on the week and 54% lower than the recent high of $6,040 per FEU on June 6, according to Platts, a Journal of Commerce sister company within S&P Global. Niels Rasmussen, chief shipping analyst at Bimco, said when the 90-day pause on tariffs ends, US importers will turn to the inventories they built up through frontloading in the first half of the year. “We expect that US import volume growth will suffer under the increased import tariffs and weaker economic growth,” Rasmussen noted in Bimco’s latest container shipping outlook released Wednesday. “We therefore estimate that the year-to-date frontloading of cargo will result in an equal downturn in imports during the second half of 2025,” he added. “In fact, we expect the downturn to be even more pronounced as the 55% tariff on Chinese goods gets implemented and the reciprocal tariff increases announced in April are implemented following the 90-day delay.” The import tariff for China went as high as 145% but was later lowered to 30% for the 90-day period ending Aug. 14. Last week, President Donald Trump wrote on his social media platform that an agreement had been reached with China that will set the tariff applied on Chinese imports to 55%, although that has yet to be officially confirmed. A trade agreement has been reached between the US and UK that will lower the general tariff level for imports from the UK to 10%. And although negotiations are continuing with the European Union, it is likely the EU will face a 10% baseline tariff on all its US exports. Bimco has adjusted its 2025 volume growth forecast for the European and Mediterranean region upward from 3.5% to 6% to reflect the stronger-than-expected year-to-date volumes. “Volume to the region grew 7.3% during the first four months of the year and economic conditions are improving with lower inflation, lower interest rates, lower unemployment than before COVID and a stronger euro all contributing to a brighter outlook,” Rasmussen said. “In the EU, consumers appear significantly better off as retail volumes have seen robust growth compared to a very weak second half of 2024, and consumer confidence remains mostly stable,” he added. Rates flatten on Asia-North Europe The peak season on Asia-Europe has begun and spot rates of $2,842 per FEU are up 49% since May 31, according to Xeneta. Rates have flattened out following the June freight-all-kinds (FAK) increases, but ocean carriers are planning to significantly reduce the deployed capacity on Asia-North Europe in August. If demand remains strong, rates are sure to rise. Data from visibility provider eeSea shows that the expected capacity on Asia-North Europe will fall by 90,000 TEUs in August from July, with blank capacity up 25% to 105,000 TEUs. Rasmussen noted that the conflict between Israel and Iran may have further delayed when ships will return to normal Red Sea and Suez Canal routings, and the Bimco outlook assumes no change in the diversions around southern Africa. When ships do return to Suez transits, Bimco is forecasting a 10% reduction in ship demand because of the shorter sailing distances. S&P Global Market Intelligence has not recorded a Houthi militant attack on commercial shipping in the Red Sea since Dec. 10, 2024. While an apparent ceasefire was agreed to between the Houthis and the US in May, the US Department of Defense says the USS Harry S. Truman aircraft carrier strike group intercepted approximately 160 Houthi drone and missile attacks over its five-month deployment in the Red Sea that ended in May, an indication of the resilience of Houthi attack capabilities. “Houthi attacks on US-affiliated shipping are likely to resume in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden at volumes probably not exceeding previous attacks and maintaining a severe risk to all vessels in transit due to uncertainties around Houthi targeting selection,” Jack Kennedy, head of Middle East and North Africa country risk at S&P Global Market Intelligence, wrote in a report this week. S&P Global is the parent company of the Journal of Commerce. Contact Greg Knowler at greg.knowler@spglobal.com .

Asia-Europe

Trans-Pacific

Trans-Pacific sailing into slowdown; Asia-Europe outlook brightens: analysts

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">In a statement posted on the FMC’s website, Sola said his last day at the agency would be June 30 and did not give a reason for his departure.</div>

In a statement posted on the FMC’s website, Sola said his last day at the agency would be June 30 and did not give a reason for his departure.

<div class="phx-topic">Chairman Louis Sola announced Tuesday he is leaving the US Federal Maritime Commission (FMC) a mere five months after being <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/trump-appoints-louis-sola-to-chairmans-slot-at-fmc-5926442">appointed to lead the agency</a> responsible for regulating ocean trade to and from US ports. In a statement posted on the FMC’s website, Sola said his last day at the agency will be June 30. He did not give a reason for his departure. “I have had the privilege of helping safeguard the integrity of the US maritime industry, bringing greater transparency to port operations, and overseeing a supply chain that moves more than $5 trillion in goods annually,” Sola said in the statement. Sola, appointed to the commission in 2018 during President Donald Trump’s first term, pointed to work he did as a commissioner during the pandemic to resolve supply chain-related disruptions, as well as a recent investigation into flags of convenience, which resulted in calls for the deflagging of more than 140 sanctioned vessels. On Jan. 20, Trump elevated Sola to replace previous FMC Chairman Daniel Maffei, with a mandate to support initiatives around balanced trade and an emphasis on enhancing trade to and from Latin America. Early in his brief tenure as chairman, Sola was outspoken about whether the Panama Canal was a <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/fmc-chair-questions-level-playing-field-in-panama-canal-operations-5932469">“level playing field”</a> for US shippers due to Chinese operational involvement in ports on both ends of the canal. He also was leading an investigation into whether global chokepoints, primarily major canals, were hurting US maritime transportation interests. Sola formerly served on the Florida Board of Pilots Commissioners and as CEO of a ship and yacht brokerage before being nominated to the FMC. Contact Eric Johnson at <a href="mailto:eric.johnson@spglobal.com">eric.johnson@spglobal.com</a>.</div>

Chairman Louis Sola announced Tuesday he is leaving the US Federal Maritime Commission (FMC) a mere five months after being appointed to lead the agency responsible for regulating ocean trade to and from US ports. In a statement posted on the FMC’s website, Sola said his last day at the agency will be June 30. He did not give a reason for his departure. “I have had the privilege of helping safeguard the integrity of the US maritime industry, bringing greater transparency to port operations, and overseeing a supply chain that moves more than $5 trillion in goods annually,” Sola said in the statement. Sola, appointed to the commission in 2018 during President Donald Trump’s first term, pointed to work he did as a commissioner during the pandemic to resolve supply chain-related disruptions, as well as a recent investigation into flags of convenience, which resulted in calls for the deflagging of more than 140 sanctioned vessels. On Jan. 20, Trump elevated Sola to replace previous FMC Chairman Daniel Maffei, with a mandate to support initiatives around balanced trade and an emphasis on enhancing trade to and from Latin America. Early in his brief tenure as chairman, Sola was outspoken about whether the Panama Canal was a “level playing field” for US shippers due to Chinese operational involvement in ports on both ends of the canal. He also was leading an investigation into whether global chokepoints, primarily major canals, were hurting US maritime transportation interests. Sola formerly served on the Florida Board of Pilots Commissioners and as CEO of a ship and yacht brokerage before being nominated to the FMC. Contact Eric Johnson at eric.johnson@spglobal.com .

Supply chain

FMC’s Sola to leave agency months after being elevated to chairman’s slot

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The world of LTL is slow to embrace change. Business anachronisms permeate current supply chain processes. These vestiges of the way things used to work define the LTL freight transportation procurement process of many modern shippers.David Knuth, logistics specialist at IEWC, a global supplier of cable and wire based in Wisconsin, is happy to have modernized the RFP process, automating the entire LTL bidding procedure with Bid$ense, SMC³’s automated truckload and LTL freight transportation sourcing solution. But when prompted, he can still recall what once was.In his previous job, a large part of his duties were consumed by creating an intermodal bid package for carriers. In a spreadsheet, Knuth detailed the company’s volumes lane by lane, taking care to delete any errant keystrokes or misleading data. He would then email out the information to each carrier, taking time to respond to detailed technical questions about the spreadsheet data. Finally, he had to compile all the results, create an algorithm that would compare the carriers on each lane, and award the business.“It was a huge undertaking. It took about four months to do,” Knuth said of the old process. “It was almost a full-time job for that part of the year, every year.”In his new job at IEWC, he sat down with Bid$ense on day one and was amazed at the capabilities. Knuth had never before used a bid tool. SMC³’s latest versions of Bid$ense automate the process even further, taking truckload and LTL RFPs entirely online. The tool draws on RFP best-practices protocols to streamline the bidding communication process, enabling bidding carriers to respond accurately and promptly to shipper requests. The solution also does all the distribution work automatically, electronically submitting shipper bid data to carriers based on their actual service capabilities and performance records. Carriers are alerted with timely prompts for RFP deliverables, so shippers aren’t waiting by the phone for responses.Another benefit of automating the process is the data-cleansing assistance. When Knuth sent spreadsheets to carriers, data errors might cloud the bidding process; he might have to resend data or simply accept a price that did not truly reflect the costs of doing business. Data cleansing is incredibly beneficial, he said.The spreadsheet technique also made bidding analysis an onerous task. Since Bid$ense automates and streamlines the entire RFP process, intensive examination is now simple. SMC³ knows that each bid has more than one best outcome. With uniform responses from each carrier, shippers can quickly rank results and create an unlimited quantity of what-if scenarios to make the optimal procurement decision.Jesse Burnett of Central Garden &amp; Pet experiences many of the same benefits. Founded in 1980, Central Garden &amp; Pet has spent the last three decades growing from a small garden supply company to a provider of a range of products from dog chews and bird seed to soil supplements and natural insecticides. For much of its life, the company shipped these disparate goods via LTL and truckload carriers to retailers throughout the country, relying on each business unit to negotiate directly with their freight transportation providers. This arrangement worked fairly well for a small company, but as Central Garden &amp; Pet expanded, leadership decided to consolidate decision making.Burnett helped centralize the transportation decision making in 2015 with SMC³’s Bid$ense. Before Bid$ense, every business unit operated independently as far as negotiating with carriers.“There were a lot of different things just floating around,” he said. “We didn’t have master agreements in place; no national pricing at all. The pricing from carriers was just all over the place, depending on where you were.”The transformations he saw with Bid$ense were immediate. Burnett has been using the tool about every other year since its implementation at the company. Central Garden and Pet’s $19.6 million 2019 LTL bid saved the company just more than 9 percent when compared to its historical average. For Burnett, though, bid automation extends far beyond savings.“We knew that we weren’t getting the best pricing offer from our carriers just because nothing was centralized,” he continued. “We knew that if we combined everything from all these business units and paired it with one corporate offering, then it would drive some cost benefit with it.”When the company initially decided to centralize bid procurement, executives researched a number of different methodologies and technologies. In the end, though, Burnett found that Bid$ense was both widespread and well known, and that his carrier partners already knew how to use the application. Burnett also highlighted the data-cleansing process as a major benefit, saying the rigorous process ensures that carriers always return the best price.“It definitely has helped drive savings,” he said. “Any time you go out there and you drive that competitiveness with the carriers and they know they’re in a bid environment, it seems to sharpen their pencils.”Transportation procurement is an integral part of the modern supply chain. With Bid$ense, shippers can develop a strategic implementation plan that saves them time and money, but also helps them create strong relationships with their carrier partners. These carriers appreciate the solution’s data-cleansing process; when carriers receive a complete shipment history and future volume forecast, they don’t have to guess on pricing. Carriers that receive more data from shippers get a complete picture of that shipper’s freight, allowing them to accurately plan instead of simply preparing for the worst-case scenario. Clean data presented through an automated system can lead to both bigger shipment savings and a lasting partnership between carrier and customer.Whether customers are looking to streamline over-the-road transportation bidding by automating the RFP process or create an entirely new, centralized sourcing process, Bid$ense has the analytical horsepower to get the job done.SMC³ 2020 Customer Case Study

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Shippers save money, time with automated transportation bidding tools

If there’s one immutable truth in the world of logistics, it’s this: LTL is an inherently complex form of transportation. Tariffs, rates, DIM weights, transit times — it’s enough to confuse even seasoned logistics professionals. The solution to this knowledge gap has historically been on-the-job training or university supply chain education, but for a variety of reasons there is now a pressing need for third-party, remote LTL training that prepares logistics workers for transportation success. Global Scope Can Overlook Local Intricacies In the past, professionals looking to move into a supply chain career learned about the basics of supply chain from universities. However, many of these college supply chain programs are now global in scope, focusing on worldwide supply chain management instead of the intricacies of specialized domestic transportation. And even these programs, which used to be widespread, are becoming less common. LTL is not an industry of broad-brush strokes; supply chain professionals really need a pointillistic understanding of the logistics of LTL in order to excel in the industry. Accelerating Need for Dedicated LTL Education This lack of specified training put the onus on employers to prepare new hires with the LTL knowledge needed to do their jobs. Dedicated LTL study is a necessity, not a luxury. At the same time, changes in LTL and the broader supply chain world are accelerating. The reliance on e-commerce has ballooned since the start of the pandemic, and last-mile LTL shipments and related e-commerce strains on the supply chain won’t diminish once social distancing abates. That genie isn’t going back into the bottle. So supply chain employers need logistics workers that are fully versed in all aspects of the industry, ready to solve unique shipping and delivery problems based on their extensive supply chain knowledge But why care about LTL? It’s been reported that some shippers in today’s world are no longer concerned with what mode is used to ship their goods. A Multimodal Approach Ensures On-Time Delivery This mode agnosticism means supply chain stakeholders have to be well versed in all modes of transportation. As unforeseen weather events and other disruptions, such as protests, become more common, savvy logistics employees will need to be armed with familiarity of all modes, not just the most popular, to ensure that freight is delivered on time, without damage, and in the most financially expedient way possible. Offerings like SMC³’s LTL online education courses cover a wide range of topics from LTL basics and operations to more advanced concepts like pricing analytics and transportation law. The company also has plans to continually refresh content, adding new expert presenters and taking the feedback of students to make the courses even better as time goes on. Learn more about&nbsp;<a href="https://logisticstrainingcenter.com/smc3-courses/" rel="noreferrer" class="joc_admin__link">SMC³’s LTL Online Education program</a>&nbsp;and view the 2021 hybrid schedule, featuring live industry experts,&nbsp;<a href="https://www.smc3.com/onlinelearning2021/" rel="noreferrer" class="joc_admin__link">here.</a>

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Filling the Supply Chain Education Gap with LTL Education Courses

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