<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">Consolidation that has occurred in recent years is giving carriers newfound influence — if they are willing to assert it. </div>

Consolidation that has occurred in recent years is giving carriers newfound influence — if they are willing to assert it.

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<div>There were identifiable reasons — all related to unique conditions in 2019 — why container carriers in the recent trans-Pacific contract negotiations achieved base rate increases as well as guarantees of reimbursement for the higher cost tied to meet the low-sulfur fuel emissions mandate. But largely out of sight was another reason carriers came away satisfied from the negotiations, and it’s a gift that will likely keep giving year after year.That factor, all else aside, is the impact of consolidation.The carriers’ securing $200 to $300 per-FEU increases was driven by near-term factors such as shippers’ fear of experiencing a repeat...

There were identifiable reasons — all related to unique conditions in 2019 — why container carriers in the recent trans-Pacific contract negotiations achieved base rate increases as well as guarantees of reimbursement for the higher cost tied to meet the low-sulfur fuel emissions mandate. But largely out of sight was another reason carriers came away satisfied from the negotiations, and it’s a gift that will likely keep giving year after year. That factor, all else aside, is the impact of consolidation. The carriers’ securing $200 to $300 per-FEU increases was driven by near-term factors such as shippers’ fear of experiencing a repeat of late-2018 congestion because of front-loading of volumes ahead of the threatened Jan. 1, 2019, 25 percent tariffs on imports from China. Another factor was concern over a possible surge in peak-season blanked sailings because of ships being retrofitted with scrubbers. Blanked sailings in the trans-Pacific soared to 136 last year from 80 in 2017, according to SeaIntelligence. As a result, shippers in some cases were willing to conclude contract negotiations earlier than the May 1 deadline when most annual eastbound trans-Pacific contracts renew. But under the surface, the longer-term, possibly permanent impact of consolidation was a hidden presence. The mere fact that the number of major carriers has shrunk from 20 to 10 in four years is allowing carriers to imagine that after years of being on the receiving end of the market, they can have a newfound influence if they are willing to assert it. “They’re reaping the benefits of consolidation,” James I. Newsome III, president and CEO of the South Carolina Ports Authority and the former US president of Hapag-Lloyd, told JOC.com. Click to enlarge Consolidation doesn’t mean collusion. Multiple antitrust investigations of carriers over many years, most recently by the US Department of Justice, failed to uncover evidence of anti-competitive behavior. Carriers strictly self-police, knowing they are under the constant glare of antitrust authorities who are being encouraged by groups such as the European Shippers Council to closely monitor the industry. The changed environment has more to do with basic economics: fewer players mean less competition. From a practical standpoint, whereas in the past carriers felt they had no choice but to match or lowball a competitor’s rate to maintain market share — a ship sailing with unprofitable cargo at least generates cash that empty slots do not — they feel less compelled to do that now. “There are simply fewer choices, fewer carriers, aligned in three alliances, and they finally have the ability to make some decisions that they didn’t feel they could make when the industry was more fragmented. Now they can say, ‘No,’” Newsome said. Market share menatlity fading Others agree that the longstanding market share mentality is becoming less pervasive among carriers, if only because being larger, they have less to fear from losing a given piece of business. “Part of the problem was the carriers were so market share-driven that they were willing to do anything to keep their market share where they wanted it to be,” said Beverly Altimore, executive director of USSA, a shippers association focused on the chemicals market. With consolidations, “they no longer have to be quite as concerned as they were before about market share because their market share is automatically bigger.” “Going forward, it’s going to give the shippers less control to do what they want to do, and more control to the carriers to do what they need to do,” she added. Altimore recalls many years ago when there were only two to three carriers in the US to Brazil and Argentina and the trade was controlled by a conference. In one case, a shipper of drilling mud requested an FEU rate to be able to mechanize on pallets instead of using manual labor with floor-loaded goods, thus getting more product into a single container and reducing the per-unit shipping cost. “They requested a 40-foot rate, and the conference replied that that business moves in 20-foot containers — request denied.” She said she is beginning to see similar, if subtle, examples of carriers’ exerting greater control; some carriers recently imposed surcharges with the language “no exceptions, applies to contracts that exclude this.” “In other words, in the message announcing it, they are already telling you that you are going to violate the contract. That is a sign of power,” Altimore said. “This is the fear that consolidation is going to give carriers such a level of control where the shippers will be so much at the mercy of carriers that they will have trouble doing business.” There are public signs that the tenor of the shipper-carrier relationship is changing. For example, note how shippers are increasingly giving lip service to "partnerships with carriers," when several years ago, it was the carriers urging the same on-stage at industry events. The underlying question as consolidation gained traction in recent years was: putting everything else aside, how will this change impact the industry? Carriers revamping strategies and plunging into digital are two examples. Exerting control over the market will inevitably be another. Contact Peter Tirschwell at peter.tirschwell@ihsmarkit.com and follow him on Twitter: @petertirschwell .

Container lines

Consolidation lifts trans-Pacific carrier pricing power

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">The Hamburg-headquartered breakbulk and project cargo operator confirmed new vessel orders after it announced that Managing Director Lars Bonnesen would leave the company at the end of the year. </div>

The Hamburg-headquartered breakbulk and project cargo operator confirmed new vessel orders after it announced that Managing Director Lars Bonnesen would leave the company at the end of the year.

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<div class="phx-topic">Germany's United Heavy Lift is gearing up for another spree of new vessel orders just over a year after it completed the delivery of a series of heavy-lift vessels from a Chinese shipyard. Hamburg-headquartered UHL confirmed the orders Monday after the breakbulk and project cargo operator announced that Managing Director Lars Bonnesen would leave the company at the end of the year. Bonnesen's departure "is closely linked to the next strategic phase of UHL, which will place a strong focus on newbuildings and further investments,” the company said in a statement. “Lars Bonnesen has chosen not to take part in this journey and will instead dedicate his time to new projects outside the shipping industry." UHL gave no details on the vessel expansion plans, while Bonnesen declined to comment on his planned departure. ”Unfortunately, (I’m) not allowed to disclose information,” he told the Journal of Commerce. Bonnesen joined UHL in April 2019, having previously been chartering director at Intermarine for more than six years until October 2018. UHL said Bonnesen had “played a key role in shaping the company.” “With his expertise and dedication, he contributed significantly to the development of the fleet, the expansion of the international presence, and the strengthening of important partnerships,” the company said. “His perspectives and dedication have helped UHL navigate challenging market conditions and further consolidate its position in the global heavy lift and project cargo segment." <h3>Bonnesen sells UHL shares </h3>On Bonnesen’s watch, UHL expanded its fleet with 17 F-900 series heavy-lift vessels, including eight ordered at shipyards in China and nine acquired from other owners. The final ship of the eight newbuildings was delivered in July 2024. Bonnesen was also involved in the October 2020 creation of United Marguisa Lines, a heavy-lift vessel joint venture between UHL and Marguisa Lines in Africa. As part of his departure, Bonnesen has sold his shares in United Heavy Lift to the United Shipping Group. In a related development, UHL shareholder Christian Monsted has also sold his UHL shares to the United Shipping Group, but will continue as managing director of United Marguisa Lines. Contact Keith Wallis at <a href="mailto:keithwallis@hotmail.com">keithwallis@hotmail.com.</a></div>

Germany's United Heavy Lift is gearing up for another spree of new vessel orders just over a year after it completed the delivery of a series of heavy-lift vessels from a Chinese shipyard. Hamburg-headquartered UHL confirmed the orders Monday after the breakbulk and project cargo operator announced that Managing Director Lars Bonnesen would leave the company at the end of the year. Bonnesen's departure "is closely linked to the next strategic phase of UHL, which will place a strong focus on newbuildings and further investments,” the company said in a statement. “Lars Bonnesen has chosen not to take part in this journey and will instead dedicate his time to new projects outside the shipping industry." UHL gave no details on the vessel expansion plans, while Bonnesen declined to comment on his planned departure. ”Unfortunately, (I’m) not allowed to disclose information,” he told the Journal of Commerce. Bonnesen joined UHL in April 2019, having previously been chartering director at Intermarine for more than six years until October 2018. UHL said Bonnesen had “played a key role in shaping the company.” “With his expertise and dedication, he contributed significantly to the development of the fleet, the expansion of the international presence, and the strengthening of important partnerships,” the company said. “His perspectives and dedication have helped UHL navigate challenging market conditions and further consolidate its position in the global heavy lift and project cargo segment." Bonnesen sells UHL shares On Bonnesen’s watch, UHL expanded its fleet with 17 F-900 series heavy-lift vessels, including eight ordered at shipyards in China and nine acquired from other owners. The final ship of the eight newbuildings was delivered in July 2024. Bonnesen was also involved in the October 2020 creation of United Marguisa Lines, a heavy-lift vessel joint venture between UHL and Marguisa Lines in Africa. As part of his departure, Bonnesen has sold his shares in United Heavy Lift to the United Shipping Group. In a related development, UHL shareholder Christian Monsted has also sold his UHL shares to the United Shipping Group, but will continue as managing director of United Marguisa Lines. Contact Keith Wallis at keithwallis@hotmail.com.

Breakbulk carriers

Project cargo

Breakbulk News

Maritime

UHL to embark on fleet expansion amid leadership change

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">A string of storms in September has roiled vessel schedules and terminal operations throughout the region.</div>

A string of storms in September has roiled vessel schedules and terminal operations throughout the region.

<div class="phx-topic">Ocean carriers are warning of skipped port calls, rerouted cargo and vessel delays on a raft of trans-Pacific and Asia-Europe and Asia-Mediterranean sailings over the next two weeks in the aftermath of the recent typhoons that have hit China. The threat of widespread disruption comes on the eve of China’s National Day holiday that starts Wednesday and is expected to last 10 days. <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/south-china-supply-chains-brace-for-years-strongest-typhoon-6084358">Typhoon Ragasa closed ports in southern China and Taiwan for three days last week</a>, Tropical Storm Mitag affected the Philippines and southeast China in mid-September and Typhoon Tapah struck the same region in early September. Hapag-Lloyd said its Gemini Cooperation services with partner Maersk are among those affected by the string of tropical cyclones. The most severely impacted is Gemini's Pacific Southwest services, WC1 and WC3, with Nansha omitted this week on the trans-Pacific eastbound sailing by Gerd Maersk. Hapag-Lloyd said cargo will be rolled to the next WC1 voyage. Shanghai will also be omitted this week and next week on Gemini's WC3 service to recover schedule reliability from delays caused by the typhoons, Hapag-Lloyd said. Sailings affected are those by GSL Lydia this week, with cargo transferred to the WC2 and US2 services, and by Norwalk next week with cargo shifted to the US2 service operated by Kandla Express and US1 served by CCNI Algol. The delays follow call omissions last week at Yantian by the Gunvor Maersk due to Typhoon Ragasa. Hapag-Lloyd said cargo for Nansha has been discharged in both Vung Tau in Vietnam and Yantian, and will be carried back the Guangzhou international gateway port in three subsequent sailings. The carrier said the Dortmund Express operating Gemini’s Asia-US East Coast 1 service was late berthing at Yantian last Friday due to Ragasa after having already omitted Nansha on the same service due to Typhoon Tapah. Ocean Network Express (ONE) also highlighted delays of up to seven days on its Asia-Mediterranean MS1 and MD2 services due to the storms in the South China Sea. ONE confirmed a four-day delay by ACX Pearl operating its Japan-Straits-Malaysia service due to the disruption at Hong Kong and at Keelung in Taiwan. The carrier also said vessels are being delayed due to Typhoon Neoguri, which affected Japan and South Korea last week. CMA CGM also warned of vessel delays following port closures at Manila and Subic due to Typhoon Bualoi, which hit the Philippines over the weekend. Delays are also likely at Haiphong after Bualoi made landfall in northern Vietnam Monday, killing at least 30 people and causing extensive flooding. <h3>Congested ports gradually recovering </h3>Ports in south China are gradually recovering from the impact of Ragasa, with Hong Kong back to normal operations, but some Shenzhen terminals still heavily congested. “The backlog (at Hong Kong and DaChan Bay) caused by Typhoon Ragasa has already been cleared,” a spokesperson for Hong Kong’s Modern Terminals told the Journal of Commerce Tuesday. A senior executive at a Hong Kong-based forwarder said Shenzhen’s western terminals, including Shekou and Chiwan, are still heavily congested. “The terminals will remain open during the extended National Day holiday and with factories closed for the holiday, this should provide (the terminals) with some respite to clear the backlog of cargo,” the executive told the Journal of Commerce Tuesday. Hapag-Lloyd said Shekou is still experiencing berthing delays of four to five days, with a five- to seven-day wait at Yantian. Contact Keith Wallis at <a href="mailto:keithwallis@hotmail.com">keithwallis@hotmail.com.</a></div>

Ocean carriers are warning of skipped port calls, rerouted cargo and vessel delays on a raft of trans-Pacific and Asia-Europe and Asia-Mediterranean sailings over the next two weeks in the aftermath of the recent typhoons that have hit China. The threat of widespread disruption comes on the eve of China’s National Day holiday that starts Wednesday and is expected to last 10 days. Typhoon Ragasa closed ports in southern China and Taiwan for three days last week , Tropical Storm Mitag affected the Philippines and southeast China in mid-September and Typhoon Tapah struck the same region in early September. Hapag-Lloyd said its Gemini Cooperation services with partner Maersk are among those affected by the string of tropical cyclones. The most severely impacted is Gemini's Pacific Southwest services, WC1 and WC3, with Nansha omitted this week on the trans-Pacific eastbound sailing by Gerd Maersk. Hapag-Lloyd said cargo will be rolled to the next WC1 voyage. Shanghai will also be omitted this week and next week on Gemini's WC3 service to recover schedule reliability from delays caused by the typhoons, Hapag-Lloyd said. Sailings affected are those by GSL Lydia this week, with cargo transferred to the WC2 and US2 services, and by Norwalk next week with cargo shifted to the US2 service operated by Kandla Express and US1 served by CCNI Algol. The delays follow call omissions last week at Yantian by the Gunvor Maersk due to Typhoon Ragasa. Hapag-Lloyd said cargo for Nansha has been discharged in both Vung Tau in Vietnam and Yantian, and will be carried back the Guangzhou international gateway port in three subsequent sailings. The carrier said the Dortmund Express operating Gemini’s Asia-US East Coast 1 service was late berthing at Yantian last Friday due to Ragasa after having already omitted Nansha on the same service due to Typhoon Tapah. Ocean Network Express (ONE) also highlighted delays of up to seven days on its Asia-Mediterranean MS1 and MD2 services due to the storms in the South China Sea. ONE confirmed a four-day delay by ACX Pearl operating its Japan-Straits-Malaysia service due to the disruption at Hong Kong and at Keelung in Taiwan. The carrier also said vessels are being delayed due to Typhoon Neoguri, which affected Japan and South Korea last week. CMA CGM also warned of vessel delays following port closures at Manila and Subic due to Typhoon Bualoi, which hit the Philippines over the weekend. Delays are also likely at Haiphong after Bualoi made landfall in northern Vietnam Monday, killing at least 30 people and causing extensive flooding. Congested ports gradually recovering Ports in south China are gradually recovering from the impact of Ragasa, with Hong Kong back to normal operations, but some Shenzhen terminals still heavily congested. “The backlog (at Hong Kong and DaChan Bay) caused by Typhoon Ragasa has already been cleared,” a spokesperson for Hong Kong’s Modern Terminals told the Journal of Commerce Tuesday. A senior executive at a Hong Kong-based forwarder said Shenzhen’s western terminals, including Shekou and Chiwan, are still heavily congested. “The terminals will remain open during the extended National Day holiday and with factories closed for the holiday, this should provide (the terminals) with some respite to clear the backlog of cargo,” the executive told the Journal of Commerce Tuesday. Hapag-Lloyd said Shekou is still experiencing berthing delays of four to five days, with a five- to seven-day wait at Yantian. Contact Keith Wallis at keithwallis@hotmail.com.

Port News

Asia-Europe

Trans-Pacific

Marine terminals

International ports

Container Shipping News

Hapag-Lloyd, ONE warn of skipped calls, vessel delays due to Asian typhoons

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">A regulation change that went into effect over the weekend allows Beijing to penalize and block vessels from countries that it accuses of targeting its own shipping activities. </div>

A regulation change that went into effect over the weekend allows Beijing to penalize and block vessels from countries that it accuses of targeting its own shipping activities.

<div class="phx-topic">China has amended its maritime regulations to allow it to penalize and restrict vessels of countries accused of targeting its shipping operations, flexing its power and raising the stakes just two weeks before a US tax on Chinese operators and shipbuilding takes effect. China Premier Li Qiang has signed into law an amendment that took effect Sunday, laying the groundwork for China to block not just vessels, but also data, information and other maritime services of other countries it wishes to target, according to an order from China’s State Council seen by the Journal of Commerce. The amendment keeps the door open for conciliation through treaties and agreements, which comes as the Trump administration seeks to negotiate a larger trade deal with China. The move by Beijing comes ahead of the Oct. 14 date when US Customs and Border Protection will begin collecting special taxes on ships calling US ports that are operated by China-based companies or were built in China. The US has accused China of unfairly subsidizing its shipbuilding industry to establish global maritime dominance and is leveling the sharpest taxes on Cosco Shipping and its OOCL subsidiary. Container lines not based in China <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/chinese-tonnage-moving-out-of-us-container-trade-ahead-of-new-fees-xeneta-6081320">have shifted China-built ships out of US services</a> and replaced them with vessels from South Korea and elsewhere to avoid the new fees. Major carriers including <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/msc-ready-for-us-port-fees-after-network-changes-ceo-6079762">Maersk and Mediterranean Shipping Co.</a> have said in recent weeks they won’t need to levy a surcharge to recoup costs from the new fee. Cosco and OOCL, which together handle the largest share of US imports from Asia, have signaled they will continue to operate in the US trades. The port fees, <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/us-port-fees-could-exceed-2b-for-cosco-oocl-hsbc-6077305">estimated by investment bank HSBC to cost the two Chinese carriers at least $2 billion in the first year</a>, will rise incrementally over the next four years. The US Trade Representative (USTR) is expected in the coming week to release an FAQ regarding the so-called Section 301 investigation into China’s maritime activities and respond to requests for clarifications and changes on the US new tax, according to one person close to the matter. The investigation targets Chinese-built chassis, container equipment and cranes, some of which are being <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/freeport-pays-crane-tariffs-to-avoid-ustr-fee-risk-6087337">received by US ports this month before the Oct. 14 deadline</a>. Contact Mark Szakonyi at <a href="mailto:mark.szakonyi@spglobal.com">mark.szakonyi@spglobal.com</a>. </div>

China has amended its maritime regulations to allow it to penalize and restrict vessels of countries accused of targeting its shipping operations, flexing its power and raising the stakes just two weeks before a US tax on Chinese operators and shipbuilding takes effect. China Premier Li Qiang has signed into law an amendment that took effect Sunday, laying the groundwork for China to block not just vessels, but also data, information and other maritime services of other countries it wishes to target, according to an order from China’s State Council seen by the Journal of Commerce. The amendment keeps the door open for conciliation through treaties and agreements, which comes as the Trump administration seeks to negotiate a larger trade deal with China. The move by Beijing comes ahead of the Oct. 14 date when US Customs and Border Protection will begin collecting special taxes on ships calling US ports that are operated by China-based companies or were built in China. The US has accused China of unfairly subsidizing its shipbuilding industry to establish global maritime dominance and is leveling the sharpest taxes on Cosco Shipping and its OOCL subsidiary. Container lines not based in China have shifted China-built ships out of US services and replaced them with vessels from South Korea and elsewhere to avoid the new fees. Major carriers including Maersk and Mediterranean Shipping Co. have said in recent weeks they won’t need to levy a surcharge to recoup costs from the new fee. Cosco and OOCL, which together handle the largest share of US imports from Asia, have signaled they will continue to operate in the US trades. The port fees, estimated by investment bank HSBC to cost the two Chinese carriers at least $2 billion in the first year , will rise incrementally over the next four years. The US Trade Representative (USTR) is expected in the coming week to release an FAQ regarding the so-called Section 301 investigation into China’s maritime activities and respond to requests for clarifications and changes on the US new tax, according to one person close to the matter. The investigation targets Chinese-built chassis, container equipment and cranes, some of which are being received by US ports this month before the Oct. 14 deadline . Contact Mark Szakonyi at mark.szakonyi@spglobal.com .

Supply chain

Transport, Trade and Regulation News

China flexes maritime power in response to coming US port fee

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">US truckload carriers are likely to see a 2% increase in contract rates next year as shippers focus on doing more with less, Arrive Logistics says. </div>

US truckload carriers are likely to see a 2% increase in contract rates next year as shippers focus on doing more with less, Arrive Logistics says.

<div class="phx-topic">A significant increase in US truckload contract rates in 2026 is “improbable,” with rates likely to rise by low single-digit percentages, a new market forecast claims. Contract rates should rise about 2% by the end of 2026, while transactional truckload spot rates claw their way up 6% from this year’s bottom, according to Arrive Logistics. Oversupply, weak demand and low spot prices will keep a lid on contract rate hikes, with shippers retaining pricing power well into 2026, the brokerage provider said. “We see a little bit of an upward movement next year, but not a great disruption,” David Spencer, Arrive’s vice president of market intelligence, told the Journal of Commerce. That forecast should please shippers enjoying an unprecedented period of pricing power and frustrate truckload carriers whose margins are under pressure from rising costs. Carriers have told the Journal of Commerce they need a rate hike of 4% to 6% just to keep up with inflation and operating costs. Shippers, Spencer said, aren’t ready for that leap. “The major shippers are looking to do more with less,” he said in an interview after the release of Arrive’s 2025–26 North American Truckload Freight Forecast last week. In conversations between Arrive and more than a dozen shippers, “the consensus was that 2% to 4% is a fair range” for truckload rate increases in 2026, Spencer said. “A lot of them felt that if they had the flexibility, [their rate increases] would be closer to flat in the first half and high single-digit in the back half [of 2026],” he said. Currently, the market is highly competitive, with many truckload carriers willing to bid below cost to obtain freight and keep tractor-trailers rolling. “Even lanes we cover well [as a broker] are being under bid,” Spencer said, adding that in such a market, “there’s more appetite for shippers to leverage non-asset providers” offering lower-priced rates. <h3>Spot-contract delta </h3>Arrive’s annual forecast is the latest report to predict a relatively stable year for truckload rates in 2026 with modest growth in pricing capped by low truck freight demand. In August, C.H. Robinson Worldwide forecast a <a href="https://www.chrobinson.com/en-us/resources/insights-and-advisories/north-america-freight-insights/aug-2025-freight-market-update/na-truckload/">2% increase</a> in spot truckload pricing in 2026. “There’s little evidence of a catalyst on the horizon that would suggest freight volumes will increase materially next year,” the largest US truckload broker said. Logistics provider RXO, publisher of the quarterly RXO Curve report on truckload pricing, found “no momentum” in truckload spot pricing <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/us-truckload-market-mired-in-malaise-as-import-surge-wanes-6075566">during the third quarter</a>. Truckload pricing, as measured by the US long-haul truckload producer price index (PPI), did rise 1.8% in August from July but was still 0.2% lower than a year earlier. The PPI represents final selling prices and is weighted toward contract rates. “The biggest reason why contract rates aren’t going to go up is how low spot rates are,” Spencer said. Arrive’s data put the average US spot rate at $1.61 per mile in August, down from $1.75 in January and up 2 cents from August 2024. The broker’s average dry-van contract rate in August was $2 per mile. Contract rates usually rise after spot rates rise above them, but the size of the gap makes that less likely without a market shock, Spencer said. “If there’s a 40-cent delta [between spot and contract rates], what’s going to create a sustained 40-cent increase in spot rates?” he said. The Arrive forecast does show that delta narrowing by December 2026, but only to 22 cents — $1.81 per mile for spot rates and $2.03 per mile for contract pricing. Truckload capacity attrition “is real,” Spencer said. Not only are carriers exiting trucking, but fewer trucks are being purchased and put on the road, he said. ACT Research reported Class 8 heavy truck net orders were down 21% year over year in August, the eighth consecutive month of declining orders. But truckload capacity hasn’t tightened enough to affect truck availability or pricing heading into the fourth quarter, trucking’s peak shipping season. “Demand has been pretty stable and isn’t heading toward a cliff,” said Spencer. “The available capacity will support it.” Contact William B. Cassidy at <a href="mailto:bill.cassidy@spglobal.com">bill.cassidy@spglobal.com</a>. </div>

A significant increase in US truckload contract rates in 2026 is “improbable,” with rates likely to rise by low single-digit percentages, a new market forecast claims. Contract rates should rise about 2% by the end of 2026, while transactional truckload spot rates claw their way up 6% from this year’s bottom, according to Arrive Logistics. Oversupply, weak demand and low spot prices will keep a lid on contract rate hikes, with shippers retaining pricing power well into 2026, the brokerage provider said. “We see a little bit of an upward movement next year, but not a great disruption,” David Spencer, Arrive’s vice president of market intelligence, told the Journal of Commerce. That forecast should please shippers enjoying an unprecedented period of pricing power and frustrate truckload carriers whose margins are under pressure from rising costs. Carriers have told the Journal of Commerce they need a rate hike of 4% to 6% just to keep up with inflation and operating costs. Shippers, Spencer said, aren’t ready for that leap. “The major shippers are looking to do more with less,” he said in an interview after the release of Arrive’s 2025–26 North American Truckload Freight Forecast last week. In conversations between Arrive and more than a dozen shippers, “the consensus was that 2% to 4% is a fair range” for truckload rate increases in 2026, Spencer said. “A lot of them felt that if they had the flexibility, [their rate increases] would be closer to flat in the first half and high single-digit in the back half [of 2026],” he said. Currently, the market is highly competitive, with many truckload carriers willing to bid below cost to obtain freight and keep tractor-trailers rolling. “Even lanes we cover well [as a broker] are being under bid,” Spencer said, adding that in such a market, “there’s more appetite for shippers to leverage non-asset providers” offering lower-priced rates. Spot-contract delta Arrive’s annual forecast is the latest report to predict a relatively stable year for truckload rates in 2026 with modest growth in pricing capped by low truck freight demand. In August, C.H. Robinson Worldwide forecast a 2% increase in spot truckload pricing in 2026. “There’s little evidence of a catalyst on the horizon that would suggest freight volumes will increase materially next year,” the largest US truckload broker said. Logistics provider RXO, publisher of the quarterly RXO Curve report on truckload pricing, found “no momentum” in truckload spot pricing during the third quarter . Truckload pricing, as measured by the US long-haul truckload producer price index (PPI), did rise 1.8% in August from July but was still 0.2% lower than a year earlier. The PPI represents final selling prices and is weighted toward contract rates. “The biggest reason why contract rates aren’t going to go up is how low spot rates are,” Spencer said. Arrive’s data put the average US spot rate at $1.61 per mile in August, down from $1.75 in January and up 2 cents from August 2024. The broker’s average dry-van contract rate in August was $2 per mile. Contract rates usually rise after spot rates rise above them, but the size of the gap makes that less likely without a market shock, Spencer said. “If there’s a 40-cent delta [between spot and contract rates], what’s going to create a sustained 40-cent increase in spot rates?” he said. The Arrive forecast does show that delta narrowing by December 2026, but only to 22 cents — $1.81 per mile for spot rates and $2.03 per mile for contract pricing. Truckload capacity attrition “is real,” Spencer said. Not only are carriers exiting trucking, but fewer trucks are being purchased and put on the road, he said. ACT Research reported Class 8 heavy truck net orders were down 21% year over year in August, the eighth consecutive month of declining orders. But truckload capacity hasn’t tightened enough to affect truck availability or pricing heading into the fourth quarter, trucking’s peak shipping season. “Demand has been pretty stable and isn’t heading toward a cliff,” said Spencer. “The available capacity will support it.” Contact William B. Cassidy at bill.cassidy@spglobal.com .

Trucking News

Truckload

Surface

Modest hike but no ‘great disruption’ seen for truckload pricing in 2026

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">The move by CSX to relieve Joe Hinrichs of his duties comes after Ancora Holdings urged the railroad’s board of directors to seek a merger with BNSF Railway or Canadian Pacific Kansas City in response to the UP-NS deal. </div>

The move by CSX to relieve Joe Hinrichs of his duties comes after Ancora Holdings urged the railroad’s board of directors to seek a merger with BNSF Railway or Canadian Pacific Kansas City in response to the UP-NS deal.

<div class="phx-topic">Joe Hinrichs was ousted as CEO of CSX Transportation on Sunday by the railroad’s board of directors, just over a month after an activist investor called for him to step down amid competitive pressures brought on by the proposed merger of Union Pacific Railroad and Norfolk Southern Railway. The CSX board named veteran business executive Steve Angel as CEO effective Sept. 28. “It has been a privilege to serve as CEO of CSX,” Hinrichs said in a statement from CSX. “I am proud of the progress we have made in improving performance, strengthening customer relationships, and building a culture centered on safety and collaboration.” While the move itself isn’t surprising, the timing of it was because Hinrichs attended a grand reopening of the Howard Street Tunnel in Baltimore last Friday and was scheduled to host another event this Thursday at the Blue Ridge Subdivision on the Tennessee-North Carolina border. At the Friday event, Hinrichs talked about how he was celebrating his third anniversary with CSX and looked forward to all the opportunities ahead in 2026 with both projects completed. Multiple sources told the Journal of Commerce that Hinrichs was unaware of his fate when attending the event in Baltimore and only learned of the decision afterward. Angel is an executive with over 45 years of experience leading large companies, including Praxair and Linde, two industrial gas companies that merged in 2018. Similar to Hinrichs, he has no prior railroading experience. “My top priorities will be to ensure the safety of the railroad and our employees, deliver reliable service to our customers, and increase value for our shareholders,” Angel said in the CSX statement. “We believe [Angel’s] track record of driving operational excellence and cultivating strong relationships with key stakeholders, including partners and customers, makes him the ideal CEO to lead CSX into its next chapter,” Kevin Boone, CSX’s executive vice president and chief commercial officer, wrote in a letter to customers that was obtained by the Journal of Commerce. “Importantly ... [the] announcement does not change anything about our valued relationship with you. Our top priority remains delivering the reliable service you have come to expect from CSX.” <h3>Investor urged CSX to act </h3>The move by CSX to relieve Hinrichs of his duties comes after Ancora Holdings, an activist investor, urged the railroad’s board of directors in August to seek a merger with BNSF Railway or Canadian Pacific Kansas City in response to the UP-NS transaction. Without such a deal, Ancora called for a leadership change at CSX. “[We] urged the board to terminate [Hinrichs] if he could not quickly position CSX to catch up to the railroads that have embraced the need for transcontinental service in the United States,” Ancora said in a statement Monday. “As we expected, Mr. Hinrichs botched the opportunity and, if anything, appeared to try to fight the tailwinds of consolidation.” BNSF and CPKC have since stated they are not looking to merge or acquire any railroads, leaving Angel with the immediate responsibility of responding to the UP-NS transaction. Nevertheless, Ancora said Angel “is an initial step in the right direction for CSX.” Contact Ari Ashe at <a href="mailto:ari.ashe@spglobal.com">ari.ashe@spglobal.com</a>. </div>

Joe Hinrichs was ousted as CEO of CSX Transportation on Sunday by the railroad’s board of directors, just over a month after an activist investor called for him to step down amid competitive pressures brought on by the proposed merger of Union Pacific Railroad and Norfolk Southern Railway. The CSX board named veteran business executive Steve Angel as CEO effective Sept. 28. “It has been a privilege to serve as CEO of CSX,” Hinrichs said in a statement from CSX. “I am proud of the progress we have made in improving performance, strengthening customer relationships, and building a culture centered on safety and collaboration.” While the move itself isn’t surprising, the timing of it was because Hinrichs attended a grand reopening of the Howard Street Tunnel in Baltimore last Friday and was scheduled to host another event this Thursday at the Blue Ridge Subdivision on the Tennessee-North Carolina border. At the Friday event, Hinrichs talked about how he was celebrating his third anniversary with CSX and looked forward to all the opportunities ahead in 2026 with both projects completed. Multiple sources told the Journal of Commerce that Hinrichs was unaware of his fate when attending the event in Baltimore and only learned of the decision afterward. Angel is an executive with over 45 years of experience leading large companies, including Praxair and Linde, two industrial gas companies that merged in 2018. Similar to Hinrichs, he has no prior railroading experience. “My top priorities will be to ensure the safety of the railroad and our employees, deliver reliable service to our customers, and increase value for our shareholders,” Angel said in the CSX statement. “We believe [Angel’s] track record of driving operational excellence and cultivating strong relationships with key stakeholders, including partners and customers, makes him the ideal CEO to lead CSX into its next chapter,” Kevin Boone, CSX’s executive vice president and chief commercial officer, wrote in a letter to customers that was obtained by the Journal of Commerce. “Importantly ... [the] announcement does not change anything about our valued relationship with you. Our top priority remains delivering the reliable service you have come to expect from CSX.” Investor urged CSX to act The move by CSX to relieve Hinrichs of his duties comes after Ancora Holdings, an activist investor, urged the railroad’s board of directors in August to seek a merger with BNSF Railway or Canadian Pacific Kansas City in response to the UP-NS transaction. Without such a deal, Ancora called for a leadership change at CSX. “[We] urged the board to terminate [Hinrichs] if he could not quickly position CSX to catch up to the railroads that have embraced the need for transcontinental service in the United States,” Ancora said in a statement Monday. “As we expected, Mr. Hinrichs botched the opportunity and, if anything, appeared to try to fight the tailwinds of consolidation.” BNSF and CPKC have since stated they are not looking to merge or acquire any railroads, leaving Angel with the immediate responsibility of responding to the UP-NS transaction. Nevertheless, Ancora said Angel “is an initial step in the right direction for CSX.” Contact Ari Ashe at ari.ashe@spglobal.com .

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In today’s competitive logistical landscape, efficiency is an absolute necessity for smooth operations. Yet, in the barge sector, many operators still rely on fragmented systems, delayed updates, and manual tracking methods that slow decision-making and increase operational risk. OpenTug’s new eBook, How Enhanced Visibility Transforms Barge Operations, reveals how unified, real-time data can become your competitive advantage leading to improved voyage management and more actionable insights. Drawing on industry best practices and real-world examples, it explores how operational transparency empowers teams to: ●	Reduce delays with accurate ETAs and proactive scheduling decisions ●	Improve asset utilization by identifying underused equipment and optimizing cargos ●	Strengthen safety and compliance through consistent, accessible documentation and reporting ●	Boost customer satisfaction with transparent status updates and faster response time You’ll learn how visibility can connect every part of your operation into a single, actionable view. The ability to see and act on real-time information transforms the way you plan, execute, and deliver. From managing a small regional fleet to running a large, national operation, this eBook will help you understand the measurable benefits of enhanced visibility and how technology like BargeOS is transforming the way barge logistics is managed. Get your copy today and see how clear insights lead to stronger performance, smarter decisions, and more profitable operations. <a href="https://9315820.fs1.hubspotusercontent-na1.net/hubfs/9315820/eBook/Nav-theFuture-AJW-08.19.25.pdf" rel="noreferrer" class="joc_admin__link">Click here</a><span class="joc_admin__inline-image joc_admin__inline-image-aspect-ratio-16_9 joc_admin__inline-image-position-left joc_admin__inline-image-size-small" data-figure-size="small" data-figure-position="left" data-figure-aspect-ratio="16:9"><img src="/content-assets/1756152344211_Opentug%20logo.png" alt="" class="joc_admin__inline-image-inherit">

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At SSA Marine Mexico, we firmly believe that business development must go hand in hand with social and environmental well-being. Our vision is not solely focused on operating efficiently, but also on creating a meaningful and positive impact in the communities where we are present. Since 1995, we have reaffirmed this commitment through tangible actions that reflect our core values of responsibility, solidarity, and sustainability. <span class="joc_admin__inline-image joc_admin__inline-image-aspect-ratio-3_2 joc_admin__inline-image-position-left joc_admin__inline-image-size-medium" data-figure-size="medium" data-figure-position="left" data-figure-aspect-ratio="3:2"><img src="/content-assets/1752584535914_Photo%201.jpg" alt="" class="joc_admin__inline-image-inherit"> A Year of Major Achievements Over the past year, we allocated more than $107,000 USD to the implementation of 60 social and environmental projects, positively impacting over 7,800 people across various regions of Mexico. Each initiative was designed with a holistic approach, addressing key areas that contribute to long-term community development. Education: Laying the Foundation for the Future Education is one of the most powerful tools to promote social mobility and equitable development. At SSA Marine Mexico, we support academic initiatives that inspire and empower the next generation of leaders. One of our most impactful partnerships was with the University of Colima, where we sponsored the “Reto Camp” program. This initiative encourages university students to develop innovative solutions in the fields of sustainability, logistics, and port operations, offering them mentorship, tools, and real-world challenges to solve. In addition, we donated microscopes, school supplies, and educational materials to institutions in underserved communities, helping to improve the learning environment and provide students with the resources they need to succeed. Health and Sports: Promoting Wellness We believe that healthy communities are strong communities. We have supported several local sporting events and provided direct assistance to talented athletes, enabling them to pursue their passions and represent their regions with pride. Beyond sports, we also strengthened our collaboration with critical emergency response organizations such as the Mexican Red Cross and Civil Protection. Our contributions helped enhance their readiness and capabilities in times of crisis, ensuring better outcomes for those affected by emergencies. Supporting Vulnerable Groups: Reaching Those Who Need It Most A core part of our social responsibility efforts is directed toward supporting vulnerable populations. We have contributed to a range of initiatives focused on children, migrants, and at-risk families. These efforts included donations to orphanages and shelters, as well as support for the National Institute of Migration and grassroots organizations dedicated to protecting and empowering people facing adversity. By standing with those in need, we reinforce our commitment to inclusion and social justice, values that are central to our identity as a responsible company. <span class="joc_admin__inline-image joc_admin__inline-image-aspect-ratio-3_2 joc_admin__inline-image-position-left joc_admin__inline-image-size-medium" data-figure-size="medium" data-figure-position="left" data-figure-aspect-ratio="3:2"><img src="/content-assets/1752584944645_Photo%202.png" alt="" class="joc_admin__inline-image-inherit">Culture: Strengthening Community Identity Cultural identity is a key element in building resilient and united communities. At SSA Marine Mexico, we actively participate in the organization and sponsorship of cultural events that celebrate local traditions and foster civic pride. Working alongside port authorities and municipal governments, we helped bring music, art, and heritage to the forefront, creating spaces for community engagement and intercultural dialogue. Environment: Investing in the Planet Our commitment to sustainability goes beyond operations—it’s a philosophy that drives every decision we make. We have partnered with environmental institutions to carry out reforestation campaigns, beach cleanups, and conservation efforts. In collaboration with the Institute for the Environment, we supported initiatives aimed at decarbonization, biodiversity protection, and environmental education. By involving our employees and local volunteers in these actions, we also foster a culture of environmental stewardship throughout our organization and our surrounding communities. Innovation for a Sustainable Future Sustainability is not just about doing good—it’s also about doing things better. In 2024, we invested $22 million USD in the acquisition of 11 state-of-the-art E-RTG cranes. These electric rubber-tired gantry cranes represent a significant technological advancement in port equipment. Seven of them are already operating on clean electric energy, resulting in a reduction of nearly 4,000 tons of CO₂ emissions and improving operational efficiency by 7%. The remaining four cranes are fully compatible with future electrification, underscoring our long-term strategy to modernize our operations in an environmentally responsible way. This investment is part of a broader innovation roadmap that includes digitalization, automation, and cleaner energy sources—all designed to ensure that our ports continue to grow without compromising the health of our planet. Building a Better Tomorrow, Together At SSA Marine Mexico, we understand that sustainability is a shared and ongoing responsibility. True impact requires collaboration across sectors, long-term vision, and unwavering commitment. That is why we continue to work hand-in-hand with local authorities, non-profit organizations, universities, and our own employees to create solutions that are both scalable and sustainable. Our journey is far from over. In the years ahead, we will continue to deepen our community engagement, explore cleaner technologies, and strengthen the social fabric of the regions where we operate. Each initiative, no matter the size, is a step toward building a future where business success goes hand-in-hand with human and environmental prosperity. We are proud of what we have achieved in 2024, but we are even more excited about what lies ahead. SSA Marine Mexico — Moving the World, Caring for People and Planet. LINK: <a href="https://www.ssamarine.mx/" rel="noreferrer" class="joc_admin__link">https://www.ssamarine.mx/</a>

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The world of LTL is slow to embrace change. Business anachronisms permeate current supply chain processes. These vestiges of the way things used to work define the LTL freight transportation procurement process of many modern shippers.David Knuth, logistics specialist at IEWC, a global supplier of cable and wire based in Wisconsin, is happy to have modernized the RFP process, automating the entire LTL bidding procedure with Bid$ense, SMC³’s automated truckload and LTL freight transportation sourcing solution. But when prompted, he can still recall what once was.In his previous job, a large part of his duties were consumed by creating an intermodal bid package for carriers. In a spreadsheet, Knuth detailed the company’s volumes lane by lane, taking care to delete any errant keystrokes or misleading data. He would then email out the information to each carrier, taking time to respond to detailed technical questions about the spreadsheet data. Finally, he had to compile all the results, create an algorithm that would compare the carriers on each lane, and award the business.“It was a huge undertaking. It took about four months to do,” Knuth said of the old process. “It was almost a full-time job for that part of the year, every year.”In his new job at IEWC, he sat down with Bid$ense on day one and was amazed at the capabilities. Knuth had never before used a bid tool. SMC³’s latest versions of Bid$ense automate the process even further, taking truckload and LTL RFPs entirely online. The tool draws on RFP best-practices protocols to streamline the bidding communication process, enabling bidding carriers to respond accurately and promptly to shipper requests. The solution also does all the distribution work automatically, electronically submitting shipper bid data to carriers based on their actual service capabilities and performance records. Carriers are alerted with timely prompts for RFP deliverables, so shippers aren’t waiting by the phone for responses.Another benefit of automating the process is the data-cleansing assistance. When Knuth sent spreadsheets to carriers, data errors might cloud the bidding process; he might have to resend data or simply accept a price that did not truly reflect the costs of doing business. Data cleansing is incredibly beneficial, he said.The spreadsheet technique also made bidding analysis an onerous task. Since Bid$ense automates and streamlines the entire RFP process, intensive examination is now simple. SMC³ knows that each bid has more than one best outcome. With uniform responses from each carrier, shippers can quickly rank results and create an unlimited quantity of what-if scenarios to make the optimal procurement decision.Jesse Burnett of Central Garden &amp; Pet experiences many of the same benefits. Founded in 1980, Central Garden &amp; Pet has spent the last three decades growing from a small garden supply company to a provider of a range of products from dog chews and bird seed to soil supplements and natural insecticides. For much of its life, the company shipped these disparate goods via LTL and truckload carriers to retailers throughout the country, relying on each business unit to negotiate directly with their freight transportation providers. This arrangement worked fairly well for a small company, but as Central Garden &amp; Pet expanded, leadership decided to consolidate decision making.Burnett helped centralize the transportation decision making in 2015 with SMC³’s Bid$ense. Before Bid$ense, every business unit operated independently as far as negotiating with carriers.“There were a lot of different things just floating around,” he said. “We didn’t have master agreements in place; no national pricing at all. The pricing from carriers was just all over the place, depending on where you were.”The transformations he saw with Bid$ense were immediate. Burnett has been using the tool about every other year since its implementation at the company. Central Garden and Pet’s $19.6 million 2019 LTL bid saved the company just more than 9 percent when compared to its historical average. For Burnett, though, bid automation extends far beyond savings.“We knew that we weren’t getting the best pricing offer from our carriers just because nothing was centralized,” he continued. “We knew that if we combined everything from all these business units and paired it with one corporate offering, then it would drive some cost benefit with it.”When the company initially decided to centralize bid procurement, executives researched a number of different methodologies and technologies. In the end, though, Burnett found that Bid$ense was both widespread and well known, and that his carrier partners already knew how to use the application. Burnett also highlighted the data-cleansing process as a major benefit, saying the rigorous process ensures that carriers always return the best price.“It definitely has helped drive savings,” he said. “Any time you go out there and you drive that competitiveness with the carriers and they know they’re in a bid environment, it seems to sharpen their pencils.”Transportation procurement is an integral part of the modern supply chain. With Bid$ense, shippers can develop a strategic implementation plan that saves them time and money, but also helps them create strong relationships with their carrier partners. These carriers appreciate the solution’s data-cleansing process; when carriers receive a complete shipment history and future volume forecast, they don’t have to guess on pricing. Carriers that receive more data from shippers get a complete picture of that shipper’s freight, allowing them to accurately plan instead of simply preparing for the worst-case scenario. Clean data presented through an automated system can lead to both bigger shipment savings and a lasting partnership between carrier and customer.Whether customers are looking to streamline over-the-road transportation bidding by automating the RFP process or create an entirely new, centralized sourcing process, Bid$ense has the analytical horsepower to get the job done.SMC³ 2020 Customer Case Study

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Shippers save money, time with automated transportation bidding tools

If there’s one immutable truth in the world of logistics, it’s this: LTL is an inherently complex form of transportation. Tariffs, rates, DIM weights, transit times — it’s enough to confuse even seasoned logistics professionals. The solution to this knowledge gap has historically been on-the-job training or university supply chain education, but for a variety of reasons there is now a pressing need for third-party, remote LTL training that prepares logistics workers for transportation success. Global Scope Can Overlook Local Intricacies In the past, professionals looking to move into a supply chain career learned about the basics of supply chain from universities. However, many of these college supply chain programs are now global in scope, focusing on worldwide supply chain management instead of the intricacies of specialized domestic transportation. And even these programs, which used to be widespread, are becoming less common. LTL is not an industry of broad-brush strokes; supply chain professionals really need a pointillistic understanding of the logistics of LTL in order to excel in the industry. Accelerating Need for Dedicated LTL Education This lack of specified training put the onus on employers to prepare new hires with the LTL knowledge needed to do their jobs. Dedicated LTL study is a necessity, not a luxury. At the same time, changes in LTL and the broader supply chain world are accelerating. The reliance on e-commerce has ballooned since the start of the pandemic, and last-mile LTL shipments and related e-commerce strains on the supply chain won’t diminish once social distancing abates. That genie isn’t going back into the bottle. So supply chain employers need logistics workers that are fully versed in all aspects of the industry, ready to solve unique shipping and delivery problems based on their extensive supply chain knowledge But why care about LTL? It’s been reported that some shippers in today’s world are no longer concerned with what mode is used to ship their goods. A Multimodal Approach Ensures On-Time Delivery This mode agnosticism means supply chain stakeholders have to be well versed in all modes of transportation. As unforeseen weather events and other disruptions, such as protests, become more common, savvy logistics employees will need to be armed with familiarity of all modes, not just the most popular, to ensure that freight is delivered on time, without damage, and in the most financially expedient way possible. Offerings like SMC³’s LTL online education courses cover a wide range of topics from LTL basics and operations to more advanced concepts like pricing analytics and transportation law. The company also has plans to continually refresh content, adding new expert presenters and taking the feedback of students to make the courses even better as time goes on. Learn more about&nbsp;<a href="https://logisticstrainingcenter.com/smc3-courses/" rel="noreferrer" class="joc_admin__link">SMC³’s LTL Online Education program</a>&nbsp;and view the 2021 hybrid schedule, featuring live industry experts,&nbsp;<a href="https://www.smc3.com/onlinelearning2021/" rel="noreferrer" class="joc_admin__link">here.</a>

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