<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">When CSAV announced a new service to the U.S. East Coast through the Panama Canal last month, the Chilean carrier was promising more than containerized cargo.</div>

When CSAV announced a new service to the U.S. East Coast through the Panama Canal last month, the Chilean carrier was promising more than containerized cargo.

<div>When CSAV announced a new service to the U.S. East Coast through the Panama Canal last month, the Chilean carrier was promising more than containerized cargo. For ports along the Atlantic seaboard, it was a reminder that the greatest growth prospects begin in Asia and that the ability of ports to capitalize will depend almost entirely on their ability to handle the business. The ships on the string range in capacity up to 4,200 20-foot equivalent container units. That is half the size of the 8,500-TEU CMA CGM Figaro that first called at the Port of Savannah last summer only...

When CSAV announced a new service to the U.S. East Coast through the Panama Canal last month, the Chilean carrier was promising more than containerized cargo. For ports along the Atlantic seaboard, it was a reminder that the greatest growth prospects begin in Asia and that the ability of ports to capitalize will depend almost entirely on their ability to handle the business. The ships on the string range in capacity up to 4,200 20-foot equivalent container units. That is half the size of the 8,500-TEU CMA CGM Figaro that first called at the Port of Savannah last summer only half-filled so it could squeeze up the Savannah River to the coast’s second-busiest port. The CSAV and CMA CGM ships appear to be underscoring a fact of life among ports up and down the coast: The CMA CGM ship, which came through the Suez Canal, represents the business the ports would like to have. The CSAV rotation suggests the reality. [Editorial note: image removed/no longer available] Related: East Coast Numbers . For ports from New York to Miami, the future begins in Asia and runs through the Panama Canal, even well before the 2014 completion of the expanded canal locks that will allow 11,000-TEU ships — double those currently able to transit. In short, it means all-water services from Asia through Panama may be the only growth that matters. That’s because trade with Asia is the overwhelming driving force in growth of East Coast port throughput. Journal of Commerce Economist Mario Moreno sees total trans-Pacific containerized trade rising 11.5 percent this year and 6.4 percent in 2012. Imports from Asia accounted for 54 percent of all volume handled in 2010 by the top 10 container ports on the U.S. East Coast, which collectively account for 90 percent of all container volumes on the East Coast. Exports to Asia in 2010 accounted for 31 percent of the volume handled by East Coast ports. “The numbers point to continuing growth in containerized trade with Asia from the East Coast ports,” Moreno said. But the outlook for trade with Europe isn’t quite as robust. Moreno forecasts exports to northern Europe will be “slightly positive,” while imports from there and the Mediterranean will drop in 2011. “A slower growth in U.S. consumer spending for 2011 will favor Asian commodities over European ones,” he said. Moreno expects total container volume handled by the top 10 East Coast ports to grow 7.2 percent this year to 11.4 million TEUs. The top 10 ports account for 90 percent of all container volume on the East Coast. Of this, imports from all regions will grow 10 percent in 2011, while exports will increase 3.9 percent. Moreno forecasts East Coast import volumes from North Asia in 2011 will grow 6.5 percent and 7.8 percent from Southeast Asia. East Coast export volume to North Asia will grow 4.8 percent and to Southeast Asia by 1.8 percent. The increasingly important question as the Panama Canal expansion nears completion is which ports will attract the additional traffic. Growth in container traffic, after all, appears to be more concentrated as ship sizes increase, pressing carriers and shippers alike to get the greatest efficiencies they can from the larger vessels. The top 10 U.S. container ports in the first half of 2010 controlled 84.4 percent of the volume of containers handled at all U.S. ports, according to a recent report by the Department of Transportation’s Research and Innovative Technology Administration. The East Coast ports in that top 10 had only 31.1 percent of the U.S. total, while West Coast ports in the top 10 held 44 percent. That concentration at the top is likely to grow as carriers deploy more post-Panamax vessels — ships with more than 5,000 TEUs of capacity. And those vessel sizes have been getting bigger rapidly, even before the recent addition of the megaships that top out well beyond 10,000 TEUs, the report said. Measured in simple deadweight tons, the average size of container ships calling at all U.S. ports in 2009 was 14 percent more than the average weight in 2004. Calls by post-Panamax container ships at U.S. ports grew from 1,700 in 2004 to 4,400 in 2009, a 156 percent increase that pushed the share of calls by the larger vessels from 10 percent in 2004 to 24 percent in 2009, the RITA report said. Click Imager to Enlarge [Editorial note: image removed/no longer available] That’s a stark sign of why the infrastructure expansion, from efforts from New York-New Jersey’s Bayonne Bridge to the dredging on the Savannah River, is taking on such urgency even as the basic volume flowing through the ports looks so robust. Led by the 14.7 percent growth at Savannah, container volume at the 10 largest U.S. East Coast ports grew 11 percent in the first 11 months of 2010, according to PIERS, a sister company of The Journal of Commerce. The two largest ports — New York-New Jersey and Savannah — grew 14 and 14.7 percent, respectively, over 2009, and those two ports added about 721,000 of the 1.13 million TEUs the top 10 East Coast ports added in the time period. That accelerated a trend that saw Savannah lead the nation in average annual container growth from 1995 to 2009, growing at an 11 percent rate, and New York-New Jersey grow at a 6.2 percent average annual rate, second best among the top East Coast ports, according to a new report by the Research and Innovative Technology Administration of the Bureau of Transportation Statistics. The concentration in port volume on the East Coast, then, only grew greater in 2011. Carriers say the outlook isn’t as rosy this year, and port and carrier executives alike voice concerns that freight rates aren’t at levels sufficient to justify the heavy investment they need to make in new ships and port infrastructure to get ready for the expansion of the Panama Canal in three years. “The outlook is less robust than last year, probably closer to normal, the ways things usually are,” said Bob Sappio, senior vice president of Pan-American trade at APL. “Last year was a good year because it allowed us to recover from a horrible 2009. We had very robust trade growth but off a very low base in the prior year. This year we are back to a more traditional trade pattern and growth expectation. I’m happy for normalcy.” The volume of Asian cargo moving to the East Coast through the Suez Canal actually grew faster last year than Panama Canal business. The volume of inbound all-water cargo through the Suez Canal increased 24 percent last year, compared with the 11 percent increase in import volume carried through the Panama Canal. But import cargo volume through the Panama Canal still accounts for 90 percent of the all-water cargo flowing through East Coast ports. “So the Suez represents by far and away the smallest piece of the pie,” Sappio said. [Editorial note: image removed/no longer available] That’s why when carriers and ports talk all-water, they’re talking about the Panama Canal. The total volume carried by all-water services from Asia to the U.S. East Coast increased 14 percent last year, compared with a 17 percent increase on the West Coast. Ships on all-water routes from Asia to U.S. East Coast ports, which ran full last year, were running at a 90 percent utilization rate in the first six weeks of 2011, but Sappio expects them to fill up as the year rolls out and consumer optimism improves. APL, however, doesn’t plan to add capacity on any of its services to the East Coast this year. Although rates on APL’s East Coast all-water services have improved in the last year, they are not as profitable as its West Coast services, Sappio said. “You need 10 ships as opposed to six ships for the West Coast, so when you consider the capital requirements involved, the cost of fuel and the container equipment tied up for more days, the all-water services to the East Coast are our least profitable services,” he said. “Are we going to grow our East Coast all-water service this year? Not when fuel is approaching $600 a metric ton.” Rates may be one reason all-water import cargo from Asia is growing faster than cargo through Panama on the Asia-Europe trade lane. “Freight rates on all-water services through Panama have been climbing, while they have been falling on Asia-Europe services,” said Ben Hacket, the research analyst who runs Hackett Associates consulting. U.S. importers are taking advantage of this by transshipping cargo from Asia at Mediterranean transshipment hubs onto smaller ships bound for the U.S. East Coast. The top three carriers — Maersk Line, Mediterranean Shipping Co. and CMA CGM — also have deployed so many large new ships on the Asia-Europe trade lanes the route is being overwhelmed by overcapacity and the three are trying to fill ships any way they can, Hackett said. Maersk expects growth on its all-water services to the East Coast. “We expect the U.S. East Coast strings (from Asia) to fill up faster than the U.S. West Coast strings after the Chinese New Year,” said Lars Mikael Jensen, head of Maersk’s network and product in the Pacific. “Not so much because the market to the East Coast has grown much more than the West Coast, but because of a different supply and demand situation with less additional tonnage moving into the East Coast trades.” [Editorial note: image removed/no longer available] He said Maersk’s ships on services to the East Coast generally have 5 to 10 percent better utilization than those to the West Coast. He expects volume on both trade lanes to improve this year. But ports on the Atlantic are not expecting growth from the traditional market that once defined East Coast services. Demand on the trans-Atlantic this year simply isn’t as strong as on all-water services from Asia. “After a year with high growth, we expect demand to slow down to 3 to 5 percent in between North Europe and the Mediterranean and North America,” said Soren Castbak, Maersk’s senior director of network and product for trans-Atlantic services. “After the seasonal slowdown in the fourth quarter, we see vessels filling up already now.” Another growing East Coast trade is the north-south trade business connected to Caribbean, South and Central America. “We expect growth in the range of 4 to 5 percent in 2011, said Jonas Rosendahl Mueller, Maersk’s director of network and product for Latin American trade. But Maersk isn’t planning to add capacity on those lanes. Moreno forecasts East Coast exports to South America will grow 4.7 percent this year, to Central America by 1.2 percent and to the Caribbean by 7.3 percent. But imports from South America will only grow 2.6 percent, he said, while forecasting those from Central America and the Caribbean to fall by 4.6 and 1 percent, respectively. The volume of Asian cargo coming through Suez accounts for a growing piece of the pie at Baltimore. “We are seeing the most growth in the Asian business because Mediterranean Shipping Co. started the Golden Gate Service a year ago,” said Jim White, executive director of the Maryland Port Administration. The MSC service, which comes from ports in China, Southeast Asia and the Middle East, transits the Suez Canal and then steams direct to New York-New Jersey, Baltimore, Norfolk and Charleston. “We’re doing 8,000 containers a year on that service,” White said. But the question then is how small but regular allotments such as that will fit in as bigger ships go into service. White wants to see more capacity, but a round of rate cutting along with greater volume present more challenges down the supply chain, he said. “Low freight rates are not good for our industry,” White said. “I like healthy freight rates because it allows everybody to eat — the port authority, the railroads. Once the freight rates go in the tank, we’re all in trouble.” Contact Peter T. Leach at pleach@joc.com .

Maritime

Forwarding

All In for All-Water

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">Tech services company WNS is being added as the Digital Container Shipping Association’s “execution arm” to embed standards into systems commonly used by carriers, forwarders and shippers.</div>

Tech services company WNS is being added as the Digital Container Shipping Association’s “execution arm” to embed standards into systems commonly used by carriers, forwarders and shippers.

Feature image

<div class="phx-topic">The Digital Container Shipping Association (DCSA) is turning to a growing network of partners to help it drive adoption of the process standards it has developed over the last six years for the shipping industry. DCSA this summer added WNS, a technology services company that works with multiple shipping lines, to its roster of partners, which already include Lufthansa Industry Solutions, Valenciaport and multimodal logistics provider Samskip. The addition of WNS is potentially impactful given the company’s reach into global logistics, with 30 customers that include forwarders and non-vessel-operating companies. DCSA is a nonprofit consortium founded in 2019 to develop standards among shipping lines to make it easier for shippers and logistics companies to do business across carriers. The idea behind the partnership program, called DCSA+, is to take standards DCSA has developed around track-and-trace, electronic bills of lading, container booking and just-in-time port calls and embed them within systems used by shipping lines, their partners and customers. Three of DCSA’s 11 carrier members are current WNS customers. Jaison Augustine, WNS’ business unit head for shipping and logistics, told the Journal of Commerce WNS sees itself as the “execution arm” of the DCSA partnership. ”We are accountable for delivering outcomes for our customers, and the standards DCSA is developing are moving toward those goals,” he said. “Standards are necessary but not sufficient in and of itself. That’s where we come in.” Augustine said having a growing group of partners that can help implement the standards DCSA has developed might set the association up for its “IATA moment,” a reference to the long-standing International Air Transport Association that supports the airline industry. “Standards by themselves don’t dictate success,” he said. “Adoption is critical.” <h3>Standards implementation grew in 2024 </h3>DCSA had somewhat of a watershed year in 2024. Use of individual standards by DCSA members grew, while nearly three-quarters of the data conveyed by electronic data interchanges (EDI) has now been converted to application programming interfaces (APIs), DCSA Chief Growth Officer Mariana Bock-Losada told the Journal of Commerce. And yet there is still a need for DCSA’s members to go faster to actually implement the standards that have been developed in the systems they use and the ones their customers and partners use. “This is the right moment to actively start accelerating the standards,” Bock-Losada said. “Collaboration has to extend beyond the members developing standards based on carriers and their priorities and implementing them in their own systems. That’s why we have selected these priority partners in areas like short sea, terminals and forwarders.” Augustine said WNS is in a position to help reach those adjacent groups because the work it does is about understanding what processes work and don’t work. “We see how the sausage is made,” he said. “From the quality of shipping instructions to incomplete information to the way companies submit requests, ratings, bills of lading. It’s an ocean of excel sheets and workarounds.” The reason adoption is slow, Augustine said, is because if there is any friction or burden in doing something new, shippers will turn away. “The shippers themselves say, ‘if I’m dealing with six carriers, and everyone is not on the same standards, I’m not going to deal with all these different processes,” he said. “There are some unique aspects of this industry where efforts to unify it have not gotten the buy in. It’s endemic in the industry, primarily because it’s inward-focused.” <h3>Technology spend </h3>Augustine said it has to go back to how carriers spend their technology budget. “Here’s the paradox: every carrier spends hundreds of millions of dollars modernizing their systems, and it’s a continuous cycle,” he said, referencing investment in customer-facing tools like booking, rating and bill of lading. “But my strong contention is the best of these systems doesn’t give them a dollar in freight, and it doesn’t give them a competitive advantage,” he added. “Their service deployment and reliability is the competitive advantage.” Bock-Losada said the DCSA is pushing for investment that tackles common problems that all customers face so they can be solved in a unified way. There will be different metrics to measuring success of the partnership program. Bock-Losada pointed to the “volume of data being exchanged through APIs,” based on DCSA standards, between carrier members and external parties. Augustine said efficacy should be judged by the percentage of cargo moving by member lines that adheres to DCSA standards. “But that’s only from the carrier perspective,” he said. “What is in it for the shippers to adopt the standards? The volume of transactions that are adhering to standards the carriers are propagating will soon be the (key performance indicator) by which we’ll be measured.” Contact Eric Johnson at <a href="mailto:eric.johnson@spglobal.com">eric.johnson@spglobal.com.</a></div>

The Digital Container Shipping Association (DCSA) is turning to a growing network of partners to help it drive adoption of the process standards it has developed over the last six years for the shipping industry. DCSA this summer added WNS, a technology services company that works with multiple shipping lines, to its roster of partners, which already include Lufthansa Industry Solutions, Valenciaport and multimodal logistics provider Samskip. The addition of WNS is potentially impactful given the company’s reach into global logistics, with 30 customers that include forwarders and non-vessel-operating companies. DCSA is a nonprofit consortium founded in 2019 to develop standards among shipping lines to make it easier for shippers and logistics companies to do business across carriers. The idea behind the partnership program, called DCSA+, is to take standards DCSA has developed around track-and-trace, electronic bills of lading, container booking and just-in-time port calls and embed them within systems used by shipping lines, their partners and customers. Three of DCSA’s 11 carrier members are current WNS customers. Jaison Augustine, WNS’ business unit head for shipping and logistics, told the Journal of Commerce WNS sees itself as the “execution arm” of the DCSA partnership. ”We are accountable for delivering outcomes for our customers, and the standards DCSA is developing are moving toward those goals,” he said. “Standards are necessary but not sufficient in and of itself. That’s where we come in.” Augustine said having a growing group of partners that can help implement the standards DCSA has developed might set the association up for its “IATA moment,” a reference to the long-standing International Air Transport Association that supports the airline industry. “Standards by themselves don’t dictate success,” he said. “Adoption is critical.” Standards implementation grew in 2024 DCSA had somewhat of a watershed year in 2024. Use of individual standards by DCSA members grew, while nearly three-quarters of the data conveyed by electronic data interchanges (EDI) has now been converted to application programming interfaces (APIs), DCSA Chief Growth Officer Mariana Bock-Losada told the Journal of Commerce. And yet there is still a need for DCSA’s members to go faster to actually implement the standards that have been developed in the systems they use and the ones their customers and partners use. “This is the right moment to actively start accelerating the standards,” Bock-Losada said. “Collaboration has to extend beyond the members developing standards based on carriers and their priorities and implementing them in their own systems. That’s why we have selected these priority partners in areas like short sea, terminals and forwarders.” Augustine said WNS is in a position to help reach those adjacent groups because the work it does is about understanding what processes work and don’t work. “We see how the sausage is made,” he said. “From the quality of shipping instructions to incomplete information to the way companies submit requests, ratings, bills of lading. It’s an ocean of excel sheets and workarounds.” The reason adoption is slow, Augustine said, is because if there is any friction or burden in doing something new, shippers will turn away. “The shippers themselves say, ‘if I’m dealing with six carriers, and everyone is not on the same standards, I’m not going to deal with all these different processes,” he said. “There are some unique aspects of this industry where efforts to unify it have not gotten the buy in. It’s endemic in the industry, primarily because it’s inward-focused.” Technology spend Augustine said it has to go back to how carriers spend their technology budget. “Here’s the paradox: every carrier spends hundreds of millions of dollars modernizing their systems, and it’s a continuous cycle,” he said, referencing investment in customer-facing tools like booking, rating and bill of lading. “But my strong contention is the best of these systems doesn’t give them a dollar in freight, and it doesn’t give them a competitive advantage,” he added. “Their service deployment and reliability is the competitive advantage.” Bock-Losada said the DCSA is pushing for investment that tackles common problems that all customers face so they can be solved in a unified way. There will be different metrics to measuring success of the partnership program. Bock-Losada pointed to the “volume of data being exchanged through APIs,” based on DCSA standards, between carrier members and external parties. Augustine said efficacy should be judged by the percentage of cargo moving by member lines that adheres to DCSA standards. “But that’s only from the carrier perspective,” he said. “What is in it for the shippers to adopt the standards? The volume of transactions that are adhering to standards the carriers are propagating will soon be the (key performance indicator) by which we’ll be measured.” Contact Eric Johnson at eric.johnson@spglobal.com.

Container Shipping News

Container lines

DCSA turns to industry partners to drive shipping standards adoption

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">Local freight forwarders who spoke with the Journal of Commerce have reported three upcoming blank calls out of West India through the first half of September in anticipation of lower cargo lifts. </div>

Local freight forwarders who spoke with the Journal of Commerce have reported three upcoming blank calls out of West India through the first half of September in anticipation of lower cargo lifts.

<div class="phx-topic">The 50% tariffs on Indian exports to the US, which went into effect Wednesday, have seemingly left container carriers active on the westbound trade lane at a crossroads regarding supply-demand dynamics. Realizing the pressure of filling vessels, carriers operating the premier India-US East Coast networks have already begun reworking their capacity deployment strategies, industry sources say. Local freight forwarders who spoke with the Journal of Commerce have reported three upcoming blank calls out of West India (Nhava Sheva/Mundra) through the first half of September in anticipation of lower cargo lifts. “The updated schedules do not show sailings for three USEC services between Weeks 36 and 37,” said a Mumbai-based forwarder who didn’t want to be identified. “Cargo bookings to the US have dropped drastically, so capacity cutbacks were/are in the cards.” West India-North America trades typically have six weekly sailings, though service reliability has been problematic since the Red Sea disruption. <div class="wrapper-narrow"><dynamic-object type="jocchartid" resource-id="56199e2b-5df4-468f-a149-b18ae7c32e51"></dynamic-object></div>The abrupt capacity pull comes on top of schedule dislocations linked to network structural issues, including two vessel gaps on Ocean Network Express’ (ONE) WIN service that lacks the tonnage capacity to offer a weekly rotation. Additionally, sliding schedules have forced a similar sailing cut for CMA CGM’s Indamex service in Week 39 as the French liner works to restore reliability with its recently announced phase-in of three more ships to the network and rotation adjustments. “The carriers are in for enormous demand downturns, so even a service exit will be no surprise,” an industry observer said. <h3>Rate hikes pulled back </h3>As the market tightens, India-USEC carriers have also recalled all rate increase notices previously lined up for Sept. 1 and instead have extended their existing short-term contract rates into at least the first week of September. Average quotes from Asian liners for loads from Nhava Sheva to New York now stand at $2,000 to $2,100 per FEU, compared with the $2,300 to $2,500 range held by mega European operators, forwarder sources said. Platts, a sister company of the Journal of Commerce within S&amp;P Global, pegged India-USEC spot rates at $2,300 per FEU as of Aug. 26, down 3% on the week. Meanwhile, Indian export industry stakeholders are evaluating the effect of the new tariff structure on trade volumes. <div class="wrapper-narrow"><dynamic-object type="jocchartid" resource-id="e4740cee-e00c-4254-8216-5ed1bb48d192"></dynamic-object></div>“It (50% tariff) can severely impact India's exports to the US, with approximately 55% of India’s US-bound shipments now exposed to pricing disadvantages of 30% to 35%, rendering them uncompetitive in comparison to competitors from China, Vietnam, Cambodia, the Philippines as well as other Southeast and South Asian countries,” S.C. Ralhan, president of the Federation of Indian Export Organizations, said in a statement. Data from PIERS, a sister company of the Journal of Commerce within S&amp;P Global, shows volumes from the Indian Subcontinent to the US jumped to 152,630 TEUs in July, highest so far in 2025 as shippers rushed to beat the August tariff deadline.Contact Bency Mathew at <a href="mailto:bencyvmathew@gmail.com">bencyvmathew@gmail.com.</a></div>

The 50% tariffs on Indian exports to the US, which went into effect Wednesday, have seemingly left container carriers active on the westbound trade lane at a crossroads regarding supply-demand dynamics. Realizing the pressure of filling vessels, carriers operating the premier India-US East Coast networks have already begun reworking their capacity deployment strategies, industry sources say. Local freight forwarders who spoke with the Journal of Commerce have reported three upcoming blank calls out of West India (Nhava Sheva/Mundra) through the first half of September in anticipation of lower cargo lifts. “The updated schedules do not show sailings for three USEC services between Weeks 36 and 37,” said a Mumbai-based forwarder who didn’t want to be identified. “Cargo bookings to the US have dropped drastically, so capacity cutbacks were/are in the cards.” West India-North America trades typically have six weekly sailings, though service reliability has been problematic since the Red Sea disruption. The abrupt capacity pull comes on top of schedule dislocations linked to network structural issues, including two vessel gaps on Ocean Network Express’ (ONE) WIN service that lacks the tonnage capacity to offer a weekly rotation. Additionally, sliding schedules have forced a similar sailing cut for CMA CGM’s Indamex service in Week 39 as the French liner works to restore reliability with its recently announced phase-in of three more ships to the network and rotation adjustments. “The carriers are in for enormous demand downturns, so even a service exit will be no surprise,” an industry observer said. Rate hikes pulled back As the market tightens, India-USEC carriers have also recalled all rate increase notices previously lined up for Sept. 1 and instead have extended their existing short-term contract rates into at least the first week of September. Average quotes from Asian liners for loads from Nhava Sheva to New York now stand at $2,000 to $2,100 per FEU, compared with the $2,300 to $2,500 range held by mega European operators, forwarder sources said. Platts, a sister company of the Journal of Commerce within S&P Global, pegged India-USEC spot rates at $2,300 per FEU as of Aug. 26, down 3% on the week. Meanwhile, Indian export industry stakeholders are evaluating the effect of the new tariff structure on trade volumes. “It (50% tariff) can severely impact India's exports to the US, with approximately 55% of India’s US-bound shipments now exposed to pricing disadvantages of 30% to 35%, rendering them uncompetitive in comparison to competitors from China, Vietnam, Cambodia, the Philippines as well as other Southeast and South Asian countries,” S.C. Ralhan, president of the Federation of Indian Export Organizations, said in a statement. Data from PIERS, a sister company of the Journal of Commerce within S&P Global, shows volumes from the Indian Subcontinent to the US jumped to 152,630 TEUs in July, highest so far in 2025 as shippers rushed to beat the August tariff deadline. Contact Bency Mathew at bencyvmathew@gmail.com.

Port News

International ports

North American ports

India-US liners readjust capacity to prepare for tariff-linked volume downturn

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">Sentiment heard with greater frequency from within the industry and from financial analysts holds that overcapacity will overwhelm constraints on capacity in a possible multi-year swoon.</div>

Sentiment heard with greater frequency from within the industry and from financial analysts holds that overcapacity will overwhelm constraints on capacity in a possible multi-year swoon.

<div class="phx-topic">It is becoming hard to shake the impression that container shipping is headed into a rocky stretch — for shippers and carriers alike. Sentiment heard with greater frequency from within the industry and from financial analysts holds that overcapacity will overwhelm constraints on capacity in a possible multi-year swoon, sending rates back to pre-COVID-19 levels and leading carriers to experience “deep losses,” according to J.P. Morgan. <div class="wrapper-narrow float-right-element"><img src="/images/phoenix/6069890_0.1.jpg"></img></div>“We continue to see an industry that is suffering from material oversupply,” J.P. Morgan wrote in a market update Tuesday. “We see this as a clear issue that the industry will be forced to negotiate, even if diversions away from Suez last longer than we expect.” Thus, breaks on capacity driven by factors external to the industry, such as Red Sea diversions, as well as growing port congestion, both of which carriers have benefited enormously from since the pandemic, will be no match for the growing impact of 30% more capacity hitting the water in the coming years as the largest order book since 2009 is processed and delivered. For US shippers facing margin pressure due to tariffs, lower rates will be a welcome relief from the toxic dynamic since COVID, when rates soared while reliability collapsed. But there is a flip side to that: The rocky stretch for shippers will materialize as carriers react to unfavorable market dynamics, as they inevitably will. Carriers may be unable to neutralize the impact of overcapacity, but they can mitigate it, or at the very least will try. As fundamentals deteriorate, carriers will react in ways that will be less visible to shippers, such as by increasing the scrapping of older ships. But they will also react in ways that will directly affect shippers, who will likely experience a prolonged spate of blank sailings, network adjustments and slow steaming that result in longer transit times, causing a broader supply chain impact on inventories and lead times. That scenario will occur because, outside of the Gemini Cooperation alliance, which launched earlier this year on the premise of delivering 90%-plus schedule reliability to the market, the broader carrier industry is focused primarily on managing its network in support of its own financial well-being, even if doing so comes at the expense of customers’ desire for schedule reliability. <h3>Liners ‘no longer intolerant’ of long-term port congestion </h3>Carriers, especially at the higher end of the market, learned long ago that over-investment in things such as fuel to speed up and maintain schedule integrity was not typically rewarded by the market in the form of higher rates. That made carriers skeptical of the value of reliability, a theory that proved itself during and after COVID, when reliability crashed due to the idling of ships and containers, and yet carriers earned record profits during the period. They saw it again in 2024 and 2025 when profits were propped up by the 10% or so of capacity being taken out of the market due to another factor beyond their control — the attacks on shipping in the Red Sea. Similarly, carriers are no longer as intolerant as they once were of growing long-term port congestion in Asia and Europe, seeing the upside in taking capacity out of the market. The amount of global container ship capacity removed due to port congestion is now 4% versus 2% pre-COVID, according to J.P. Morgan — hardly a negative issue for carriers staring at a costly, multi-year gap between supply and demand. But that gap is becoming hard to ignore. Carriers are preparing for a potentially prolonged downturn, <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/ocean-carriers-intensify-cost-cutting-efforts-as-rates-slide-on-major-trades-6069811">cutting costs</a> and modeling out scenarios where rates sink well below current levels. In its update Tuesday, J.P. Morgan said volumes grew 4.5% in the first half of 2025 due to accelerated shipments caused by US tariffs, but the market is quickly cooling off. The bank expects market growth to slow to 1.8% in the third quarter and be flat in the fourth quarter, then grow 2% annually in 2026 and beyond based on its GDP growth forecasts. In 2025, it sees effective supply growth of 6.5% versus 2024. “Furthermore, we continue to expect capacity to return to the Suez Canal in 2026, which we believe will drive supply growth up to 9% [year over year],” the bank said. “If the trans-Suez route remains constrained, effective supply would likely still grow by 3%-5%, still putting pressure on rates.” It said the 4% of capacity removed due to port congestion has “normalized” and will not grow more pronounced, meaning less impact for carriers in mitigating overcapacity. Contact Peter Tirschwell at <a href="mailto:peter.tirschwell@spglobal.com">peter.tirschwell@spglobal.com</a>.</div>

It is becoming hard to shake the impression that container shipping is headed into a rocky stretch — for shippers and carriers alike. Sentiment heard with greater frequency from within the industry and from financial analysts holds that overcapacity will overwhelm constraints on capacity in a possible multi-year swoon, sending rates back to pre-COVID-19 levels and leading carriers to experience “deep losses,” according to J.P. Morgan. “We continue to see an industry that is suffering from material oversupply,” J.P. Morgan wrote in a market update Tuesday. “We see this as a clear issue that the industry will be forced to negotiate, even if diversions away from Suez last longer than we expect.” Thus, breaks on capacity driven by factors external to the industry, such as Red Sea diversions, as well as growing port congestion, both of which carriers have benefited enormously from since the pandemic, will be no match for the growing impact of 30% more capacity hitting the water in the coming years as the largest order book since 2009 is processed and delivered. For US shippers facing margin pressure due to tariffs, lower rates will be a welcome relief from the toxic dynamic since COVID, when rates soared while reliability collapsed. But there is a flip side to that: The rocky stretch for shippers will materialize as carriers react to unfavorable market dynamics, as they inevitably will. Carriers may be unable to neutralize the impact of overcapacity, but they can mitigate it, or at the very least will try. As fundamentals deteriorate, carriers will react in ways that will be less visible to shippers, such as by increasing the scrapping of older ships. But they will also react in ways that will directly affect shippers, who will likely experience a prolonged spate of blank sailings, network adjustments and slow steaming that result in longer transit times, causing a broader supply chain impact on inventories and lead times. That scenario will occur because, outside of the Gemini Cooperation alliance, which launched earlier this year on the premise of delivering 90%-plus schedule reliability to the market, the broader carrier industry is focused primarily on managing its network in support of its own financial well-being, even if doing so comes at the expense of customers’ desire for schedule reliability. Liners ‘no longer intolerant’ of long-term port congestion Carriers, especially at the higher end of the market, learned long ago that over-investment in things such as fuel to speed up and maintain schedule integrity was not typically rewarded by the market in the form of higher rates. That made carriers skeptical of the value of reliability, a theory that proved itself during and after COVID, when reliability crashed due to the idling of ships and containers, and yet carriers earned record profits during the period. They saw it again in 2024 and 2025 when profits were propped up by the 10% or so of capacity being taken out of the market due to another factor beyond their control — the attacks on shipping in the Red Sea. Similarly, carriers are no longer as intolerant as they once were of growing long-term port congestion in Asia and Europe, seeing the upside in taking capacity out of the market. The amount of global container ship capacity removed due to port congestion is now 4% versus 2% pre-COVID, according to J.P. Morgan — hardly a negative issue for carriers staring at a costly, multi-year gap between supply and demand. But that gap is becoming hard to ignore. Carriers are preparing for a potentially prolonged downturn, cutting costs and modeling out scenarios where rates sink well below current levels. In its update Tuesday, J.P. Morgan said volumes grew 4.5% in the first half of 2025 due to accelerated shipments caused by US tariffs, but the market is quickly cooling off. The bank expects market growth to slow to 1.8% in the third quarter and be flat in the fourth quarter, then grow 2% annually in 2026 and beyond based on its GDP growth forecasts. In 2025, it sees effective supply growth of 6.5% versus 2024. “Furthermore, we continue to expect capacity to return to the Suez Canal in 2026, which we believe will drive supply growth up to 9% [year over year],” the bank said. “If the trans-Suez route remains constrained, effective supply would likely still grow by 3%-5%, still putting pressure on rates.” It said the 4% of capacity removed due to port congestion has “normalized” and will not grow more pronounced, meaning less impact for carriers in mitigating overcapacity. Contact Peter Tirschwell at peter.tirschwell@spglobal.com .

Supply chain

Rocky stretch ahead for shippers, carriers in 2026 and beyond

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy gave California, New Mexico and Washington 30 days to adopt and enforce ELP regulations or lose access to federal safety funding. </div>

Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy gave California, New Mexico and Washington 30 days to adopt and enforce ELP regulations or lose access to federal safety funding.

<div class="phx-topic">California, New Mexico and Washington will lose access to federal motor carrier safety funding unless those states adopt and enforce a federal <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/us-dot-initiates-crackdown-on-non-english-speaking-truckers-6009357">English language proficiency</a> (ELP) requirement for truck drivers, US Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy said Tuesday. “States don’t get to pick and choose which federal safety rules to follow,” Duffy said at a press conference in Washington, DC. Duffy gave the states 30 days to adopt and enforce ELP regulations or lose access to Motor Carrier Safety Assistance Program (MCSAP) funds. The Department of Transportation (DOT) sent notices to California, New Mexico and Washington opening a process that would freeze millions of dollars in funds distributed annually through the MCSAP program, which helps fund law enforcement. California received approximately $30.7 million in MCSAP funding in fiscal year 2024, while Washington received $9.8 million and New Mexico about $6.7 million, according to the US Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration (FMCSA), which administers MCSAP. “It’s my hope these states will understand the common sense nature of what we’re doing and become good partners,” Duffy said. “This is about keeping individuals and families safe as we use our roadways.” The states have not responded to DOT’s announcement. The DOT’s action follows an investigation into an Aug. 12 accident in Florida that claimed three lives when a truck driver, Harjinder Singh, made an illegal U-turn. Singh, who federal officials claim entered the US illegally and obtained commercial driver’s licenses from Washington and California, failed a post-accident English language test. Following the accident, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio <a href="https://x.com/secrubio/status/1958644528253948015?s=46&amp;t=yxYBta0zhKqvzUP8zCYxjw">last Thursday announced</a> a freeze on certain worker visas for non-US commercial truck drivers. The State Department later clarified the targeted credentials were H-2B, E-2 and EB-3 work visas. H-2B visas are capped at 66,000 a year, and truck drivers represent a small portion of those. The other visas are aimed at investors and skilled workers. Singh has not been reported to have a work visa of any type. The company he worked for, White Hawk Carriers of Ceres, California, no longer has <a href="https://ai.fmcsa.dot.gov/SMS/Carrier/2866642/Overview.aspx?FirstView=True">for-hire operating authority</a>. Neither greater ELP enforcement nor a related freeze on new work visas are expected to have <a href="https://apnews.com/article/foreign-truckers-visas-rubio-trump-florida-crash-beee82cfa284a174d7a74c42199bbd45">a major impact</a> on US truck capacity or pricing. <h3>ELP enforcement </h3>The DOT action highlights uneven state enforcement of the ELP requirement. Since June 25, the FMCSA has considered failure to pass an ELP test as an out-of-service violation for truck drivers. New Mexico and Washington have adopted the ELP guidance issued by the DOT but are not enforcing it, the DOT said in a statement, adding that California has yet to adopt and enforce compatible ELP laws and regulations. New Mexico allegedly did not administer an ELP test when state police conducted a roadside inspection of Singh and his truck in July. Singh was given a speeding ticket. States receiving MCSAP funds are required to adopt FMCSA regulations <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/congress-states-join-dot-targeting-non-english-speaking-truckers-6014680">in their own laws</a>, but how that is done, and how quickly, can vary from state to state. Out of 6,067 ELP violations issued during roadside inspections so far in calendar year 2025, 1,201 have resulted in out-of-service orders, according to FMCSA data. That compares with 5,863 violations and five out-of-service orders in calendar year 2024. An analysis by <a href="https://www.overdriveonline.com/regulations/article/15751741/california-highway-patrol-not-enforcing-trumps-elp-mandate-for-truck-drivers">trucker magazine Overdrive</a> found Texas, Arizona and California were the top three states for ELP violations from June 25 to July 20, with 2,089 violations. Those violations only resulted in 50 out-of-service orders, however. That’s because most of those violations occurred in counties on the US-Mexico border, where inspectors are allowed to issue violations but not place drivers out of service. Non-border states mostly have placed drivers with ELP violations out of service since June 25, Overdrive found. Contact William B. Cassidy at <a href="mailto:bill.cassidy@spglobal.com">bill.cassidy@spglobal.com</a>.</div>

California, New Mexico and Washington will lose access to federal motor carrier safety funding unless those states adopt and enforce a federal English language proficiency (ELP) requirement for truck drivers, US Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy said Tuesday. “States don’t get to pick and choose which federal safety rules to follow,” Duffy said at a press conference in Washington, DC. Duffy gave the states 30 days to adopt and enforce ELP regulations or lose access to Motor Carrier Safety Assistance Program (MCSAP) funds. The Department of Transportation (DOT) sent notices to California, New Mexico and Washington opening a process that would freeze millions of dollars in funds distributed annually through the MCSAP program, which helps fund law enforcement. California received approximately $30.7 million in MCSAP funding in fiscal year 2024, while Washington received $9.8 million and New Mexico about $6.7 million, according to the US Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration (FMCSA), which administers MCSAP. “It’s my hope these states will understand the common sense nature of what we’re doing and become good partners,” Duffy said. “This is about keeping individuals and families safe as we use our roadways.” The states have not responded to DOT’s announcement. The DOT’s action follows an investigation into an Aug. 12 accident in Florida that claimed three lives when a truck driver, Harjinder Singh, made an illegal U-turn. Singh, who federal officials claim entered the US illegally and obtained commercial driver’s licenses from Washington and California, failed a post-accident English language test. Following the accident, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio last Thursday announced a freeze on certain worker visas for non-US commercial truck drivers. The State Department later clarified the targeted credentials were H-2B, E-2 and EB-3 work visas. H-2B visas are capped at 66,000 a year, and truck drivers represent a small portion of those. The other visas are aimed at investors and skilled workers. Singh has not been reported to have a work visa of any type. The company he worked for, White Hawk Carriers of Ceres, California, no longer has for-hire operating authority . Neither greater ELP enforcement nor a related freeze on new work visas are expected to have a major impact on US truck capacity or pricing. ELP enforcement The DOT action highlights uneven state enforcement of the ELP requirement. Since June 25, the FMCSA has considered failure to pass an ELP test as an out-of-service violation for truck drivers. New Mexico and Washington have adopted the ELP guidance issued by the DOT but are not enforcing it, the DOT said in a statement, adding that California has yet to adopt and enforce compatible ELP laws and regulations. New Mexico allegedly did not administer an ELP test when state police conducted a roadside inspection of Singh and his truck in July. Singh was given a speeding ticket. States receiving MCSAP funds are required to adopt FMCSA regulations in their own laws , but how that is done, and how quickly, can vary from state to state. Out of 6,067 ELP violations issued during roadside inspections so far in calendar year 2025, 1,201 have resulted in out-of-service orders, according to FMCSA data. That compares with 5,863 violations and five out-of-service orders in calendar year 2024. An analysis by trucker magazine Overdrive found Texas, Arizona and California were the top three states for ELP violations from June 25 to July 20, with 2,089 violations. Those violations only resulted in 50 out-of-service orders, however. That’s because most of those violations occurred in counties on the US-Mexico border, where inspectors are allowed to issue violations but not place drivers out of service. Non-border states mostly have placed drivers with ELP violations out of service since June 25, Overdrive found. Contact William B. Cassidy at bill.cassidy@spglobal.com .

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<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">The Israeli carrier said it’s taking steps to comply with a purported ban on its ships at Turkish ports as relations between the two countries sour over the war in Gaza.</div>

The Israeli carrier said it’s taking steps to comply with a purported ban on its ships at Turkish ports as relations between the two countries sour over the war in Gaza.

<div class="phx-topic">Zim Integrated Shipping Services may revamp its Mediterranean long-distance and feeder networks due to Turkey’s purported ban on arrivals of Israeli-linked ships at its ports. Haifa-based Zim said Monday in a customer advisory that it plans on updating its vessel schedules due to the “latest decisions made by the authorities in Turkey regarding Israeli-linked vessels.” The company said it will service “Turkish customers while complying with the new guidelines.” The carrier did not provide any detail about those guidelines, but <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/turkish-ports-raise-new-barriers-israel-linked-ships-sources-say-2025-08-21/">Reuters reported last week</a> that Turkey’s port authorities are requesting local ship agents to declare that ships arriving at the country’s ports are not linked to Israel nor are carrying military or related cargoes destined for Israel. Some local ship agents are reportedly being told that the ban extends to any ships going to or from Israeli ports. Turkey’s move comes 15 months after the country suspended all trade with Israel in May 2024 due to the war in Gaza, with Turkey’s President Recep Erdogan ramping up his criticism after Israel signaled its intent to occupy more of Gaza. Following the ban, an unidentified Zim vessel was <a href="https://en.globes.co.il/en/article-turkey-prevents-zim-ship-from-docking-at-istanbul-port-1001519821">reportedly refused entry to Istanbul</a> last week, forcing the ship to dock in the Greek port of Piraeus instead. Zim did not return a request for comment about the ban. <h3>Long distance, feeder services affected </h3>Turkey’s ban has the potential to change the rotation on several long-distance Zim services. The carrier lists two Mediterranean-US East Coast services that call Turkey, along with one Asia-Europe service and one Mediterranean-Northwest Europe service. The other impact would be on its intra-Mediterranean feeder services, five of which call Turkish ports. While the extent of the ban is not clear, Zim has two services that also cross Turkey’s Bosphorus Straits to serve Black Sea ports. Zim’s vessels made 88 port calls to Turkey during the second quarter, according to AIS data from Sea-web, a sister company of the Journal of Commerce within S&amp;P Global. Contact Michael Angell at <a href="mailto:michael.angell@spglobal.com">michael.angell@spglobal.com</a>. </div>

Zim Integrated Shipping Services may revamp its Mediterranean long-distance and feeder networks due to Turkey’s purported ban on arrivals of Israeli-linked ships at its ports. Haifa-based Zim said Monday in a customer advisory that it plans on updating its vessel schedules due to the “latest decisions made by the authorities in Turkey regarding Israeli-linked vessels.” The company said it will service “Turkish customers while complying with the new guidelines.” The carrier did not provide any detail about those guidelines, but Reuters reported last week that Turkey’s port authorities are requesting local ship agents to declare that ships arriving at the country’s ports are not linked to Israel nor are carrying military or related cargoes destined for Israel. Some local ship agents are reportedly being told that the ban extends to any ships going to or from Israeli ports. Turkey’s move comes 15 months after the country suspended all trade with Israel in May 2024 due to the war in Gaza, with Turkey’s President Recep Erdogan ramping up his criticism after Israel signaled its intent to occupy more of Gaza. Following the ban, an unidentified Zim vessel was reportedly refused entry to Istanbul last week, forcing the ship to dock in the Greek port of Piraeus instead. Zim did not return a request for comment about the ban. Long distance, feeder services affected Turkey’s ban has the potential to change the rotation on several long-distance Zim services. The carrier lists two Mediterranean-US East Coast services that call Turkey, along with one Asia-Europe service and one Mediterranean-Northwest Europe service. The other impact would be on its intra-Mediterranean feeder services, five of which call Turkish ports. While the extent of the ban is not clear, Zim has two services that also cross Turkey’s Bosphorus Straits to serve Black Sea ports. Zim’s vessels made 88 port calls to Turkey during the second quarter, according to AIS data from Sea-web, a sister company of the Journal of Commerce within S&P Global. Contact Michael Angell at michael.angell@spglobal.com .

Zim signals changes to Med network amid apparent Turkish port ban

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At SSA Marine Mexico, we firmly believe that business development must go hand in hand with social and environmental well-being. Our vision is not solely focused on operating efficiently, but also on creating a meaningful and positive impact in the communities where we are present. Since 1995, we have reaffirmed this commitment through tangible actions that reflect our core values of responsibility, solidarity, and sustainability. <span class="joc_admin__inline-image joc_admin__inline-image-aspect-ratio-3_2 joc_admin__inline-image-position-left joc_admin__inline-image-size-medium" data-figure-size="medium" data-figure-position="left" data-figure-aspect-ratio="3:2"><img src="/content-assets/1752584535914_Photo%201.jpg" alt="" class="joc_admin__inline-image-inherit"> A Year of Major Achievements Over the past year, we allocated more than $107,000 USD to the implementation of 60 social and environmental projects, positively impacting over 7,800 people across various regions of Mexico. Each initiative was designed with a holistic approach, addressing key areas that contribute to long-term community development. Education: Laying the Foundation for the Future Education is one of the most powerful tools to promote social mobility and equitable development. At SSA Marine Mexico, we support academic initiatives that inspire and empower the next generation of leaders. One of our most impactful partnerships was with the University of Colima, where we sponsored the “Reto Camp” program. This initiative encourages university students to develop innovative solutions in the fields of sustainability, logistics, and port operations, offering them mentorship, tools, and real-world challenges to solve. In addition, we donated microscopes, school supplies, and educational materials to institutions in underserved communities, helping to improve the learning environment and provide students with the resources they need to succeed. Health and Sports: Promoting Wellness We believe that healthy communities are strong communities. We have supported several local sporting events and provided direct assistance to talented athletes, enabling them to pursue their passions and represent their regions with pride. Beyond sports, we also strengthened our collaboration with critical emergency response organizations such as the Mexican Red Cross and Civil Protection. Our contributions helped enhance their readiness and capabilities in times of crisis, ensuring better outcomes for those affected by emergencies. Supporting Vulnerable Groups: Reaching Those Who Need It Most A core part of our social responsibility efforts is directed toward supporting vulnerable populations. We have contributed to a range of initiatives focused on children, migrants, and at-risk families. These efforts included donations to orphanages and shelters, as well as support for the National Institute of Migration and grassroots organizations dedicated to protecting and empowering people facing adversity. By standing with those in need, we reinforce our commitment to inclusion and social justice, values that are central to our identity as a responsible company. <span class="joc_admin__inline-image joc_admin__inline-image-aspect-ratio-3_2 joc_admin__inline-image-position-left joc_admin__inline-image-size-medium" data-figure-size="medium" data-figure-position="left" data-figure-aspect-ratio="3:2"><img src="/content-assets/1752584944645_Photo%202.png" alt="" class="joc_admin__inline-image-inherit">Culture: Strengthening Community Identity Cultural identity is a key element in building resilient and united communities. At SSA Marine Mexico, we actively participate in the organization and sponsorship of cultural events that celebrate local traditions and foster civic pride. Working alongside port authorities and municipal governments, we helped bring music, art, and heritage to the forefront, creating spaces for community engagement and intercultural dialogue. Environment: Investing in the Planet Our commitment to sustainability goes beyond operations—it’s a philosophy that drives every decision we make. We have partnered with environmental institutions to carry out reforestation campaigns, beach cleanups, and conservation efforts. In collaboration with the Institute for the Environment, we supported initiatives aimed at decarbonization, biodiversity protection, and environmental education. By involving our employees and local volunteers in these actions, we also foster a culture of environmental stewardship throughout our organization and our surrounding communities. Innovation for a Sustainable Future Sustainability is not just about doing good—it’s also about doing things better. In 2024, we invested $22 million USD in the acquisition of 11 state-of-the-art E-RTG cranes. These electric rubber-tired gantry cranes represent a significant technological advancement in port equipment. Seven of them are already operating on clean electric energy, resulting in a reduction of nearly 4,000 tons of CO₂ emissions and improving operational efficiency by 7%. The remaining four cranes are fully compatible with future electrification, underscoring our long-term strategy to modernize our operations in an environmentally responsible way. This investment is part of a broader innovation roadmap that includes digitalization, automation, and cleaner energy sources—all designed to ensure that our ports continue to grow without compromising the health of our planet. Building a Better Tomorrow, Together At SSA Marine Mexico, we understand that sustainability is a shared and ongoing responsibility. True impact requires collaboration across sectors, long-term vision, and unwavering commitment. That is why we continue to work hand-in-hand with local authorities, non-profit organizations, universities, and our own employees to create solutions that are both scalable and sustainable. Our journey is far from over. In the years ahead, we will continue to deepen our community engagement, explore cleaner technologies, and strengthen the social fabric of the regions where we operate. Each initiative, no matter the size, is a step toward building a future where business success goes hand-in-hand with human and environmental prosperity. We are proud of what we have achieved in 2024, but we are even more excited about what lies ahead. SSA Marine Mexico — Moving the World, Caring for People and Planet. LINK: https://www.ssamarine.mx/

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