In years to come, 2011 may be viewed as an inflection point for freight transportation. There are several nascent trends that can either become firmly established — or may simply disappear.
Will slow- (and super-slow) streaming remain the norm, or be considered merely an emergency response to drastic economics? Will shippers used to fairly rapid transit times accept slower but perhaps more reliable transit? Owners of assets, from vessels to containers, need to make long-term investments. Will they invest in the additional capacity needed to support reduced asset velocity. Or, fearing a return to overcapacity, will they shy away and create a capacity shortfall?
Will shippers continue to seek global supply chain solutions that affect domestic transportation? Can transloading in Southern California continue without solving the equipment balance challenge, or will inland domestic rates rise and keep the cargo inside the marine box for intact movement?
Will the motor carrier industry enjoy resurgence in profitability, as safety and other regulatory mandates effectively reduce supply in the face of increased demand? This would reward the “zombie truckers” who have been hanging on for dear life since the freight recession of 2007 presaged even more dire economic times.
Will the intermodal business continue to grow and establish a permanent foothold in “non-traditional” markets? Progress has been made in “shorter” haul and north-south lanes; will we now see growth in new markets, such as perishable and flatbed?
And, finally, can we hope the politicians don’t mess it all up? The opportunities are there: legislative gridlock on reauthorization and energy; concerns about the Fed’s bond-buying; fear that free trade and globalization may become a fond memory; and possible reregulation by statute or oversight are all valid reasons to ponder the future. We may see it all in 2011.