A host of issues will affect the trajectory of the supply chain market in 2026. Among those is the increasing use of artificial intelligence tools across process and task areas of trucking and logistics. How investors choose to participate (or not) in the market will also be a factor. And, of course, the uncertainty created by confusion and constant turmoil over tariff policy has everyone on edge.
Yet one specific issue, unique to trucking, plays an outsized role in how the industry performs in 2026 — and determines whether we finally see an end to what has been a painfully prolonged freight recession.
That is the persistent glut of capacity in the truckload market, and what will resolve it.
Today, there are at least 580,000 truckers that own and operate at least one truck. Over the past five years, the market has been inundated by cheap truck capacity, those who were fast to come to the table and with endless staying power if all they are supporting is a single 8-year-old truck with minimum insurance.
That persistent oversupply has forestalled a much-awaited recovery. Yet the tide is turning, aided by two recent regulatory mandates. One is restrictions on "non-domiciled" drivers. This policy provided a pathway for non-US residents, who may lack proper work permits or fail to meet legal or other requirements, to operate a truck. A recent DOT audit found that some 200,000 non-domiciled driver licenses have been issued in the US.
The other is the English-language proficiency mandate, issued last May by the Trump administration. This requires a commercial drivers’ license holder to demonstrate sufficient proficiency in reading and speaking English, understanding English traffic signs and signals, the ability to respond to inquiries and make entries on reports and records.
Both these regulatory initiatives are helping correct supply. Will all this be enough for the much-awaited market correction to take place? Only time will tell... but it is certainly overdue.