However diabolically disruptive you think the pending driver crisis is, double it. The lack of quality drivers is a “wake up in the middle of the night screaming” issue for shippers and carriers alike.
We all know the reasons — the new Comprehensive Safety Act, hours-of-service rules, diesel costs, equipment costs, baby boomer demographics and unknown regulations yet to surface. I recently heard a colleague say CSA alone will create the equivalent of free agency with drivers the way it has in sports. That is probably true.
According to a recent analysis by research and consulting firm ATBS, there are 1.8 million Class 8 truck drivers, including 151,000 owner-operators. About 16 percent have left the industry over the last 2 ½ years and will probably never return. Going back to 2006, the number of drivers who switched jobs was 80 percent, with a much higher industry turnover rate. Even if it only gusts to 2006 levels, the impact will be higher given the number of trucking companies and drivers who have exited the industry to retire or permanently find another way to earn a living.
Another wild card looms that we didn’t see in 2006. Trucking has always competed with construction for labor. When housing comes back from its current slump, the recovery should create more demand for freight transport. But that recovery also will lure more drivers to construction jobs with the promise that they can sleep in their own bed every night.
Under these circumstances, rates will increase. That is Economics 101. More volume and a lot less quality capacity make it inevitable. Capacity will gravitate to those companies that treat drivers well, and to shippers who cater to them on the dock.