As we approach the end of 2025, many will reflect on yet another year full of unexpected curveballs. For example, US tariffs triggered sudden shifts in trade patterns, putting carrier networks under pressure and driving freight rates far higher than anticipated.
Looking ahead to 2026, new ships equivalent to 6.8% of the global fleet are scheduled for delivery. In addition, signs suggest the Suez Canal may soon reopen, freeing up even more capacity as vessels no longer need to detour around the Cape of Good Hope. Based on these developments, some may expect 2026 to bring abundant capacity and lower freight rates. Yet those of us with industry experience know it is never that straightforward…
If freight rates fall close to carriers’ marginal costs, we can expect aggressive blank sailings and network rationalization. Carriers will also seize opportunities to impose general rate increases, implement peak season surcharges, and maximize revenue from detention, demurrage and other local charges. These practices consume time, strain relationships and make it increasingly difficult for shippers to predict their total shipping costs.
Fortunately, new solutions are emerging to save time, avoid relationship strain, and protect against unpredictable cost increases, including index linked contracts coupled with hedging tools.